NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Broncos vs. Chiefs

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The passing stacks here, with a lean towards DEN, are the best way to go in GPPs
• The highest used combo will be Mahomes/Wilson/Kelce/Pacheco so look to avoid that in large fields
• There’s some wind, but it’s not extreme, so hopefully people will be lower on the passing games because they are silly

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The highest leverage captain tonight is Russell Wilson, with a +leverage of about 5% over the field. His projected ownership is around 18.50%, but his exposure in winning lineups sits at 23.50%, a healthy difference. Wilson has a couple things going for him here with being I a spread out offense and a good pricepoint for a QB. On the other end of this spectrum is, surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes. His price is just too high for the captain spot with Wilson in a similar spot at much cheaper.

FLEX ownership distributions

(Note: Humphrey has since been removed from the projections after this screenshot was taken!)

Where Mahomes falls short at captain, he shines in the FLEX. He is the second highest positive leverage position in the simulations at FLEX, with an exposure of 81.34% and a projected ownership at the slot of under 70%. Dulcich looks like a strong play as well, assuming his workload is sufficient, but his ownership is surely to raise up from the current projection of just 2% which will eat into his EV.

At the bottom of the leverage chart for FLEX is Courtland Sutton, followed by the Chiefs DST and Harrison Butker. The Chiefs DST is likely to be overowned against an underwhelming Broncos team since people perceive them as bad when Wilson has been fine in terms of fantasy output. The winds are going to make kickers lives a bit more difficult today, so avoiding both will make sense.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Patrick Mahomes is the free square, he’s just a much better FLEX option than Captain
• This showdown is very spread out, with a lot of options available at good price points, so don’t be scared to mix and match pieces with both QBs

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

I could have screenshotted a lot more lineups and gotten this same view. There’s a single combination that will be exceptionally highly duped: Mahomes/Wilson/Kelce/Pacheco. It’s by far the highest used combination in sims and optimizations in the FLEX. People will likely use this combination as their base and mix and match the auxiliary options around them at captain and the last FLEX spot.

There are two ways to get different here: Use one of the QBs in the captain spot and/or fade Pacheco. With the Chiefs huge favorites against a defense people think is terrible against the run, Pacheco is sure to be overvalued. He’s the best fade on this slate by a significant degree if looking to manage duplications.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Slates like this are awesome in terms of upside and terrible in terms of decision making. Typically, we don’t get two offenses with so many different viable combinations. That’s awesome because you can legit fade anyone you would like, but it sucks because you are dealing with massively increased variance. The best thing to do is start with the things that root it all together and then build something that allows it to breath.

When I say that, I mean fading the high end “safe” options in lieu of the cheaper more variant pieces. The thing here is we want to capture upside, not median, so projections matter a bit less. Isiah Pacheco is a good example of the difference, because his medians should stay well in tact but his upside is tied to touchdown scoring. If Mahomes throws 4 TDs to random WRs and backup TEs, Pacheco is very unlikely to kill you. So while his median is strong, he has similar upside for a showdown contest in comparison to the cheaper variant WRs.

My favorite strategy here is just to play for a close game. The Broncos suck, but their issues have been defensive not offensive, and Wilson is having a solid year from a fantasy output standpoint. Locking in him and Mahomes and playing the best available upside options (Rashee Rice, MVS, Marvin Mims) is going to make the most sense in larger fields. In smaller fields, it’s probably best to start with Wilson captain, use Mahomes and Pacheco from KC, and round robin DEN options.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Mahomes (CPT)
• Chiefs DST
• Isiah Pacheco (CPT)

Some players that look undervalued:

• Russell Wilson (CPT)
• Passing stacks (lean DEN)
• Broncos DST

Good luck and bink a unique

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles