Welcome to Thursday’s NHL slate. We’ve got a big ten-gamer tonight – so let’s get into it.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So it looks like we’re going to have 3 lines in the mid-teens ownership-wise tonight. They are COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lahkonen) against woeful Calgary, CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Carrier) against awful Vancouver, and NYI1 (Horvat/Heineman/Palmieri) against Chicago. Our model has COL1 with one of the best medians on the slate and a strong value projection as well. We’re going to see NYI1/CAR1 or PP as one chalk build. The other will be COL1 with CAR3 (Ehlers/Martinook/Staal). OTT2 (Cozens/Eklund/Zetterlund) and MTL2 (Dach/Newhook/Slafkovsky) will also be ones that pop up. It’s a big slate – so lineups with 20K+ lines tend to fare much worse as opposed to smaller ones. I have no issue going to the Avs – as there’s a few lower owned cheap lines I like. There’s a ton of spots here besides just picking on Calgary and Vancouver though.
- It should surprise nobody that I like the Montreal/Nashville game quite a bit. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Kreider) will probably carry 10-11% ownership – but I do like them quite a bit. MTL2 is totally fine – as is a MTL Power Play stack with Caufield/Suzuki/Slafkovsky). It’s a reach – but I also think you could play MTL3 (Danault/Bolduc/Texier) here. They’ve played very well and we know how talented Bolduc and Texier both are. This Josi/Hague pairing is also absolutely terrible defensively and just isn’t blocking any shots in the early going.
- We know how penalty-happy Montreal can be at times – and I’m still not convinced their goaltending is very good – so I have no objection to going to the NSH side here. NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Kerfoot) are 8-9% owned – but they have a solid median projection and are underpriced. I think a PP stack is definitely in play here – so Forsberg and Wood are fine as well. NSH3 (Colton/Marchesseault/Bourque) is another cheap line that I really like tonight. No objection to game stacks here. We could easily see another 5-4 or 6-5 shitshow.
- So we have to discuss the Ottawa Senators again. They’re facing this Flyers team that has been absolutely destroyed early on. PHI has juggled their lines to put the Ghost of Sean Couturier out there with Martone and Konecny on PHI1. PHI2 is Tippett/Zegas/Dvorak. These lines are something else defensively. OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Eklund) are definitely in play tonight. OTT2 (Cozens/Grieg/Zetterlund) and old reliable OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio) are strong cheap options here as well. I think a power play or 5-man stack is absolutely fine here as well. It’s hard for me to believe PHI just keeps getting clobbered – but I like this OTT team.
- So there’s three low owned teams I’ll discuss tonight. The first one is Utah. They’re headed into Boston to take on the Bruins. Boston did switch up their first line to Zacha/Pastrnak/Geekie – so they should be better than the disaster they always are when Pastrnak and Elias Lindholm are together. However, the Mammoth are just an absolute wagon and the Bruins are still thin on the back end without McAvoy. UTA1 (Keller/Schmaltz/Trocheck) and UTA2 (Cooley/Guenther/Lee) are both high on my board tonight. I probably slightly prefer UTA2 due to price and better matchups – but they’re both great. A power play stack is also fine here. I know Swayman is at home – but I’m happy going here in large fields at the 2-3% ownership these guys will carry.
- The second team worth discussing is Dallas. They will be in Buffalo taking on the Sabres – still carrying their cheap price tags and less ownership. DAL1 (Robertson/Hintz/Benn), DAL2 (Johnston/Rantanen/Steel) are both in play – as is a Dallas power play stack. This isn’t my favorite spot – but it’s one I am going to in large fields.
- The third spot is the San Jose/St. Louis game. The Blues are one of my favorite plays of the slate. The Sharks will be better defensively this year with guys like Nurse, Trouba, Marchment, and Sherwood – but they will also be taking a ton of penalties and suffer from shaky goaltending. Enter the Blues. They tend to play slow and deliberate – but the Sharks will likely be driving the pace up as long as Celebrini (GTD) plays. If he doesn’t – then the Sharks are just that much worse defensively. STL1 (Thomas/Holloway/Snuggerud) are off to a sluggish start – but we know how good they were last year. STL2 (McMichael/McTavish/Berggren) and STL3 (Dvorsky/Buchnevich/Neighbours) are both there on the cheap end as salary saver options.
- I definitely like SJ1 if Celebrini plays. We won’t know the lines – but my guess would be Celebrini/Marchment/Smith). These guys can score on anyone. Our model likes SJ2 (Wennberg/Stenberg/Sherwood) and SJ3 (Misa/Toffoli/Graf) as value plays as well. I’m less enthusiastic there. I’d rather go to the cheaper MTL, OTT, or STL stuff.
- I’m going to mention this Toronto/Vegas game because our model has strong projections on VGK1 (Eichel/Barbashev/Stone) and TOR1 (Matthews/Marchenko/Roslovic). There’s going be zero ownership here. Either one of these are strong pivots away from COL1. If you wanted to play VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) or VGK PP (Eichel/Stone/Hertl) in small field – I wouldn’t mind that either. Utah, Dallas, Ottawa, St. Louis, and San Jose are just cheaper.
- We also have Minnesota facing Tampa Bay tonight. I have no issue going to the always fantastic TB2 (Cirelli/Hagel/Guentzel) here. They’re well down the list for me though. This looks like an awesome real-life hockey game moreso than for DFS purposes.
- If the field wants to play the Islanders as chalk – that’s fine. I probably won’t. Their puck movement really suffers without Barzal. However, I could see this being a spot where ownership falls off like it did with Detroit the other night. I’ll update my thoughts here before lock.
In smaller NHL fields: I think you can go to COL1 if you want. There are enough good cheap options. I’m probably not pairing them with CAR1 or an OTT line though. If you want to do that – I think MTL1 might be a better route than Colorado. The balanced build puts more stuff in play – and I think NSH and OTT are definitely strong options there as well.
In large NHL fields: It’s wide open outside of the COL1/CAR3 and CAR1 lineups. I definitely like the MTL/NSH and STL/SJ games here. I think they both have a chance to pop. Utah is also really interesting here. If you want to go to a larger CAR or OTT stack – I think you can. Those are the two cheaper teams with the potential to score a ton. Just remember that they need to score like 7 goals on a slate this big. You can really play anything you want here. There are a bunch of really good teams I didn’t even mention.
NHL Defensemen
- Cale Makar (7400) is the chalk here at 17%. Matthew Schaefer (6300), Noah Dobson (5000) and Roman Josi (6300) are 15-17% each. No issue with any of these guys – especially Dobson.
- I suspect the CAR guys will dominate ownership on the cheaper end. I have Shayne Gostisbehere (4600) and Sean Walker (3300) both around 10-12%. Ke’andre Miller (3500) probably comes in around 8% as well.
- Rasmus Andersson (4500), Filip Hronek (4900), Darren Raddysh (6200), Thomas Chabot (5100), and Jordan Spence (3100) are obviously guys I like.
- The Blues probably split up their PP time to an extent – So I like Cam Fowler (3400) and Adam Jiricek (3400) as well.
- Mikhail Sergachev (5700) and Mackenzie Weegar (5300) are strong plays inside Utah stacks or on their own.
- David Jiricek (2500) is running the Flyers power play tonight (at least the first time on the ice). He’s probably your cheap guy du jour tonight. I have no objection to Zack Whitecloud (3000), Yan Kuznetsov (2900), or Logan Stanley (2500) either. I prefer Jordan Spence to all of these guys though.
Ownership doesn’t really matter here. There’s a lot of strong plays. David Jiricek is there if you want to put a spot – but there’s no guarantee he gets more than one crack at the Power Play. Tocchet is frustrated with the Flyers and clearly looking for anything that works. Hronek, Raddysh, Andersson, Sergachev, Weegar, and Chabot are all excellent.
NHL Goalies
- Joseph Woll (7600), Jeremy Swayman (7500), and Joel Hofer (7900) are all 10-12%. Ownership doesn’t matter here.
- Juuse Saros (7100) would be my choice as a cheap guy. Jesper Wallstedt (7400) is just way too good to be that cheap. I always like Ilya Sorokin (8100) as well but shot volume could be an issue there.
- Confirmed: Ullmark (OTT), Woll (PHI), Swayman (BOS), Oettinger (DAL), Fowler (MTL), Wallstedt (MIN), Sorokin (NYI), Hofer (STL), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Cooley (CGY), Hill (VGK)
- Unconfirmed: Cossa (UTA), Laniken (VAN), Kochetkov (CAR), Luukkonen (BUF), Saros (NSH), Hildeby (TB), Knight (CHI), Wedgewood (COL), Bobrovsky (TOR)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I like this slate quite a bit. Outside of a COL1/CAR3 lineup – you can pretty much do whatever. There’s a ton to like in every price range
- I really like the MTL/NSH game. It’ll have ownership – but I think more people will go to COL1 than MTL1 due to it being the Avs and the prices on CAR3/OTT2. Everything NSH is in play along with everything MTL.
- Ottawa and Carolina are without a doubt in strong spots and underpriced. I think going here with larger stacks definitely makes sense. People are going to OTT2 over OTT3 I guess. I think that’s a mistake. OTT1 and CAR1 are both just too cheap.
- Utah, Dallas, and St. Louis are the lower owned spots I really like. Both of the top 2 lines for Utah and Dallas are in play. I think the Sharks could really force the Blues up in pace tonight – so everything from St. Louis is in play for me. STL2 and STL3 are still too cheap and make great pivots from the chalkier cheap lines.
This slate is really wide open in all field sizes tonight. COL1, CAR1, and OTT1 are the clear premium plays in small field. I lean the latter two – but you could go to COL1 if you want. I think MTL1, VGK1, and TOR1 are all strong pivots away from Colorado in large fields. Calgary is bad – but they tend to just gum up the game and slow it down. Utah, Vegas, and possibly SJ1 if Celebrini plays are the really underowned stuff here. Carolina and Ottawa probably end up the most overowned in relation to their win probability.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm