Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 11

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

Devin Singletary (33.16%)
Trey McBride (32.10%)
Tank Dell (24.49%)
Brian Robinson Jr. (23.05%)
Tyreek Hill (18.54%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Devin Singletary

There is simply no reason Singletary should be the highest projected owned player on the slate. Moreover, his median projection and ceiling don’t even standout amidst his price tier. Devin Singletary looks like a clear fade in GPPs with Jerome Ford and Jaylen Warren as phenomenal pivots at the RB position. Alternatively, you can pivot to several pass catcher in the FLEX such as Kincaid, Schultz, and DJ Moore.

Trey McBride

This week must be a game log watcher’s wet dream as McBride went off last week similar to Singletary and now both are poised to have massive ownership. However, unlike Singletary McBride has far fewer pivot options. Furthermore, the pivots that are available both carry double-digit ownership as well. Dalton Kincaid looks like the preferred option if fading McBride.

Tank Dell

Despite the ownership Tank Dell once again looks like a solid play. Notably, Deebo Samuel shows up as a low-owned pivot option even though Brock Purdy is expected to carry ownership. Deebo could potentially be a good 2-for-1 low-owned play in GPPs. Garrett Wilson looks like the strongest direct pivot. However, it requires you to somewhat trust Zach Wilson which is not ideal.

Brian Robinson Jr.

Many men, many, many, many men should be playing Brian Robinson Jr. He projects as the strongest play in his price tier and gets a great matchup against the atrocious Giants. At the RB position, both Rachaad White and Derrick Henry are viable pivots at well under 10% ownership.

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill is a strong play and has one of the highest ceilings in NFL DFS. However, this week actually provides us with a multitude of high-upside options. Furthermore, the popular roster construction is going to include a spend up with Tyreek being the most popular. A potential strategy in GPPs may be to just include this price tier as a part of your main stack and rotate through the options.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Devin Singletary and Brian Robinson Jr. will be the most popular RB pairing. While Robinson Jr. looks like a strong option, Singletary can be faded comfortably. Based on ownership, the HOU/ARI game is going to be extremely popular so be cognizant of how much exposure you have to those pieces in your lineups. As an alternative to those teams, DAL and DET look undervalued despite two of the highest team totals on the slate. Players such as Jerome Ford, Jaylen Warren, and Dalton Kincaid are strong pivots that will allow you to maintain the popular roster build without eating as much ownership.

Good luck and let’s bake some bread!

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