Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Daniel Gafford, Miles Bridges, LeBron James, Buddy Hield, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Notably, NAW stands out due to his sub-$4k price and solid minutes projection.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 2 value players, complemented by 4 mid-range players and 2 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrating on Tyrese Maxey, LeBron, LaMelo Ball, and Shai Glizzy. Therefore, any other star outside of that group can be considered a lower-owned, high-upside option for GPPs.
- Players such as Santi Aldama and Franz Wagner are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, value plays like Kyle Anderson, Craig Porter Jr., Naji Marshall, and Caleb Martin look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Buddy Hield
One of Brandon Miller or Austin Reaves
Miles Bridges
Daniel Gafford
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Craig Porter Jr. (Value)
Christian Braun (Value)
Cam Johnson (Midrange)
Kyle Kuzma (Stud)
Tyrese Haliburton (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
An interesting thing to note is that many of last night’s heroes are going largely unowned tonight. Some of these teams do have more difficult matchups, however, nothing about the players usage or roles have changed in the past 24 hours. Moreover, many of the value players projecting for high ownership have considerably lower floors than the field may realize. Thankfully, this makes decisions easier in regards to finding pivots. You want to be mindful about eating low-usage chalk. The Paydirt models are heavy on WAS/SAC/LAL/CHA as spots to target with secondary exposure to IND/NOP. Notably, guys like Malik Monk, Craig Porter Jr., Tyrese Haliburton, and Naji Marshall look like strong GPP plays. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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