Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Jonathan Kuminga, Kevin Huerter, Victor Wembanyama, Bradley Beal, and Jaren Jackson Jr. Notably, Jokic is questionable tonight and LaMelo Ball is doubtful. Additionally, Poeltl, Quickley, and Barrett are all questionable for TOR.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 2 value players complemented by 4 mid-range players and 2 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrated on Shai Glizzy and Wembanyama. Based on this, spending up on Sabonis, Devin Booker, or Kevin Durant seems like a strong option on the high end.
- Players such as Tyler Herro, Jusuf Nurkic, and Keegan Murray are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, value plays such as Dillon Brooks, Onyeka Okongwu, and Josh Richardson look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Bradley Beal
Kevin Huerter
Jonathan Kuminga
Cedi Osman
Victor Wembanyama
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Josh Richardson (Value)
Danilo Gallinari (Value)
Jalen Green (Midrange)
Kevin Durant (Stud)
Domantas Sabonis (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be focused on a core of Wemby/Kuminga/Huerter with fragile value and midrange. Thankfully, this makes it easy to get different tonight. Not only are there multiple value and midrange pivots, but low-owned, high upside stars as well. Therefore, a good strategy tonight is playing the chalk roster construction but focusing on mixing in 3-4 pivot plays depending on contest size. The Paydirt models are heavy on HOU and MIA as spots to target with secondary exposure to the NOP and DET. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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