Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Tim Hardaway Jr., Luka Doncic, Donovan Mitchell, Derrick Jones Jr., and Grant Williams. Notably, Kyrie Irving is OUT for Dallas and they have a great matchup versus ATL.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 2 value players complemented by 4 mid-range players and 2 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrated on Luka and Donovan Mitchell. Based on this, spending up on Giannis, Shai Glizzy, or Devin Booker seems like a strong option on the high end.
- Players such as Kawhi Leonard, Jarrett Allen, and Dejounte Murray are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, value plays such as Herb Jones, Cody Martin, and Mason Plumlee look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Luka Doncic
MalDonovan Mitchell
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Derrick Jones Jr.
Isaac Okoro
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Herb Jones (Value)
Caris LeVert (Midrange)
TJ McConnell (Midrange)
Alperen Sengun (Stud)
Giannis (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be focused on Mavs value with Luka and another stud. Thankfully, it’s fairly easy to get different tonight with so much focus on select spots. While everyone is focusing on the Mavs, the Hawks are getting ignored in that same game environment. Furthermore, the Suns/Pacers is going overlooked despite having the 2nd highest game total on the slate. Finally, Giannis and Shai are both projected to be well under-owned relative to their ceilings. The Paydirt models are heavy on CLE/DAL/MEM as spots to target with secondary exposure to LAC and HOU. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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