Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Bradley Beal, Khris Middleton, Immanuel Quickley, Brook Lopez, and Jabari Walker. Notably, Kevin Durant is out for PHO and Eric Gordon is questionable. This opens up solid usage and minutes for the modestly priced Beal. Additionally, there’s still pending news with the Mavs and Luka/Kyrie/Exum status.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 1 value player complemented by 6 mid-range players and 1 star. Ownership on the high end is concentrating almost exclusively on Giannis. Based on this, Haliburton, Jokic, and Luka* are great pivots on the high end.
- Players such as Alperen Sengun, Cade Cunningham, and Jamal Murray are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, midrange plays such as Chiemeze Metu, Derrick Jones Jr., and Kelly Olynyk look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Immanuel Quickley
Bradley Beal
Khris Middleton
Jabari Walker
Brook Lopez
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Malik Beasley (Value)
Jarrett Allen (Midrange)
Kelly Olynyk (Midrange)
Alperen Sengun (Stud)
Nikola Jokic (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be balanced with scarce value and a focus on midrange Pacers and Bucks with POR value, pending news. Thankfully, this makes it easy to get different tonight. The midrange has a fairly flat distribution of outcomes with ownership spiking in a few spots. Therefore, looking to pivot here makes sense with players such as RJ Barrett, Scoot Henderson, and Grayson Allen. Additionally, you can play some of the lower owned spend ups such as Jokic, and Tyrese Haliburton. The Paydirt models are heavy on MIL/IND/PHO as spots to target with secondary exposure to TOR/HOU. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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