Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Max Scherzer with Cubs bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Red Sox and Mets. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Framber Valdez, Kutter Crawford and Logan Gilbert.
- Yusei Kikuchi rates as the top pitcher in the models and will be unowned in DFS tonight. Kikuchi looks like a phenomenal pivot off of Gilbert. Likewise, Wade Miley rates well and is a great pivot off of Kutter Crawford. Behind Kikuchi, Scherzer and Miley rate as the best of the rest.
- The Brewers rate as the top stack in the model by a pretty decent margin. The Braves, Cubs, and Pirates rate as the next best options, both with lower ownership. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Yusei Kikuchi, Julio Urias, Max Scherzer
Kikuchi looks like a tremendous GPP play tonight with the highest True AVG, highest median projection, and sub-5% ownership. Julio Urias is also low-owned and worth being mixed into an MME pool. Scherzer will be the highest owned pitcher by far tonight but looks like he may be worth the ownership.
Zeros: Yonny Chirinos, Kyle Freeland, Brandon Pfaadt
The Pirates have been bad but did rough up Spencer Strider last night and Chirinos is nowhere close to having a fraction of Strider’s talent. The Brewers smashed last night and get another plus matchup versus Kyle Freeland. Lastly, the Dodgers are going under-owned based on the matchup and could be a great late-night hammer in GPPs.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Max Scherzer
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Andruw Monasterio
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Ian Happ
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Yusei Kikuchi
1B: Alonso Rivas
2B: Brice Turang
3B:Jordan Westburg
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF:Joey Wiemer
DFS Stack Considerations
Brewers
Braves
Cubs
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Kikuchi and Brewers makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (PIT, TEX, BAL). In large field, the models support fading Valdez and Crawford as well as lowering exposure to BOS/LAD. In addition to the top stacks, the Pirates, Mets, Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, and A’s all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Max paired with Valdez on the high end, or Crawford on the lower end. However, Kikuchi and Miley look like phenomenal pivots off of Valdez/Crawford.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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