Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Corbin Burnes with Cubs bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Giants, Guardians, and DBacks. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Pablo Lopez and Blake Snell.
- Pablo Lopez rates as the top pitcher in the models, and is one of two arms that projects for 20 or more DK points. Blake Snell is the other pitcher projecting for at least 20 DK points. Snell and Alex Cobb rate as the best of the rest.
- The Padres rate as the top stack in the models, and will have low enough ownership that you can pair them with chalk pitching. The Nationals, Cardinals, Guardians, DBacks, and Rockies rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Blake Snell, Pablo Lopez, Chris Bassitt
Blake Snell and Pablo Lopez sit atop both True AVG and median projection but will both be popular options. That said, given that the models are lower on the chalk stacks it may be wise to just play the best options at SP. Bassitt presents an interesting low-owned GPP play but the matchup is brutal.
Zeros: Zach Greinke, Kyle Hendricks, Trevor Williams
Greinke continues to find himself at the bottom of True AVG, yet seems to find a way to avoid ever getting truly blown up. Despite that, the Guardians will still be plenty popular tonight. Meanwhile, neither the White Sox nor Rockies will have much ownership versus the next two worst pitchers.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Blake Snell
1B:Cody Bellinger
2B: Ha-Seong Kim
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: CJ Abrams
OF: Ian Happ
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Alex Cobb
1B: Nathaniel Lowe
2B: Andres Gimenez
3B: Matthew Batten
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Alex Call
DFS Stack Considerations
Padres
Nationals
Cardinals
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Snell and Padres makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (WAS, STL, COL). In large field the models support fading Corbin Burnes and Giants, as well as lowering exposure to Cubs. In addition to the top stacks, the Guardians, Dbacks, Rockies, Braves and Dodgers also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Burnes paired with one of Lopez/Snell. However, pairing Lopez/Snell while fading Burnes looks like the stronger move in GPPs.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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