Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Joe Musgrove with Angels bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Blue Jays, Mets, and Rockies. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb.
- Patrick Sandoval rates as the top pitcher in the models. Zach Davies and Clarke Schmidt rate as the best of the rest. It’s worth noting that not a single pitcher projects for more than 16 fantasy points (DK) so paying down makes a ton of sense.
- The Padres rate as the top stack in the models and will be under-owned relative to the upside. After a massive gap the Phillies, Guardians, Angels, and Dodgers rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ over 25% is viable in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Emmet Sheehan, Zach Davies, James Kaprielian
Emmet Sheehan looks like a strong SP2 option tonight at a low price and showed upside in his first start. Zach Davies James “No Cap” Kap are additional cheap SP2 options sitting atop True AVG. Going with a high-low pairing, or going cheap at pitcher likely makes sense tonight.
Zeros: Patrick Corbin, Kyle Freeland, Shane Beiber
Corbin gives it up and is at the bottom of True AVG tonight, however, it’s not reflected in Padres ownership at all. The Angels will be massive chalk versus Freeland in Coors. Lastly, despite Beiber rating poorly, he’s saved by the Brewers offense being pretty awful.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Joe Musgrove
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Whit Merrifield
3B: Manny Machado
SS: Ezequiel Tovar
OF: Taylor Ward
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Zach Davies
1B: Josh Naylor
2B: Ha-Seong Kim
3B: Tyler Freeman
SS: Amed Rosario
OF: Juan Soto
DFS Stack Considerations
Padres
Phillies
Guardians
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Davies and Padres makes sense in small field. At their ownership you can likely still mini-stack Angels. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (PHI, CLE, and LAD). In large field the models support fading pretty much every chalk pitcher as well as TOR bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Dodgers, Yankees, Nationals, Orioles and Astros are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Musgrove paired with Chris Bassitt. Logan Webb will also have some ownership. However, pitching is volatile tonight so it’s probably best to focus on your stacks first.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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