Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
Update 12:23 EST: The Giants have moved up to a top 3 stack while the Twins and Royals have dropped a bit, but are still viable options.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Gerrit Cole with Cardinals bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Nationals and Royals.
- Hunter Gaddis rates as the top pitcher in the models and will be strong leverage versus the chalk stack. However, it’s worth noting that five other pitchers rate similarly and not a single pitcher projects for more than 15 DK points.
- The Orioles, Cubs, and Twins are tied as the top stack in the models and both will be under-owned. The Giants, Royals, and Tigers rate as the next best options, however, there are an additional five teams that are also viable.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: MacKenzie Gore, Hunter Gaddis, Eduardo Rodriguez
MacKenzie Gore boasts the highest True AVG of the main slate options today and can be played with confidence. Gaddis is an interesting GPP punt option coming off of a strong performance in his last start. Additionally, Gaddis will be incredible leverage against chalk Cardinals.
Zeros: Colin Rea, Cody Bradford, Graham Ashcraft
Cody Bradford looks pretty bad based on True AVG, but worth noting that he’s only had one start. All three teams facing these zeroes (SF, BAL, CHC) are going under-owned and should be targeted in GPPs today.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Eduardo Rodriguez
1B: Joey Meneses
2B: Nico Hoerner
3B:J.D. Davis
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Lane Thomas
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: MacKenzie Gore
1B: LaMonte Wade Jr.
2B: Rougned Odor
3B: Ramon Urias
SS: Matt McLain
OF: Cedric Mullins
DFS Stack Considerations
Orioles
Cubs
Twins
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Rodriguez and Nationals makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (BAL, CHC, MIN). In large field the models support fading Cardinals bats and Gerrit Cole. In addition to the top stacks, the Giants, Royals, Tigers, and Rangers also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Gerrit Cole with either Eduardo Rodriguez or Dylan Cease. However, both Cole/Cease can be faded and stacking against either of them is viable.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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