First of all we have to shout out the boss James @paydirt_dfs himself for his fantastic showing in the $444 on Tuesday. Nice little WPG1/TB2 stack taking home a cool $10k on a single bullet! Save for an unfortunate Sheary injury 35 seconds into his first shift this could’ve been a real different result. Still, nice work!
Speaking of unfortunate, the Flyers really shit the bed on Tuesday – laying an egg in SJ vs the Sharks.
In the big $20 150-max contest on DK there were approximately 42% of lineups that had at least one Flyer in them.
This ownership was a little softer than I thought it might be with Sean Couturier being the highest owned at 13.42%. Might have been a little higher if Couturier was confirmed in the lineup earlier in the day.
However, to give some context, the highest owned player overall was Nathan Mackinnon at 22.63% so I looked at how many lineups had Avs in them as well.
So similar-ish percentages but 7% of those Avs lineups were solely Mackinnnon.
All this to say that the Flyers are TERRIBLE and they still had a LOT of ownership because the Sharks are TERRIBLE-ER.
Also, what I didn’t talk about on Tuesday was using a goalie as leverage. Mackenzie Blackwood went absolutely ham for the Sharks scoring 32.1 pts, outsourcing the next closest goalie (Connor Ingram 23 pts) by 9.1 pts. All that with an ownership of only 3.47%. If you were fading the Flyers anyway – it made a lot of sense to have some lineups with Blackwood in them.
When you hear people drone on about leverage in DFS that’s about as good an example as you can get.
Slate Specific Thoughts:
That brings us to today’s special…THE OILERS!
If you thought the Flyers were gonna be high owned I’m scared to see what McDavid/Draisaitl ownership is gonna be. Could we see 50% of lineups having at least one Oiler in them? Seems pretty likely to me.
Now the Oilers have been pretty bad this year but they are no Flyers. It’s a lot harder to recommend a full Oilers fade, even though there are lots of other good spots.
Only problem is these 5v5 lines make the baby Jesus cry.
If I’m using the Oilers I’m using PP1 stacks
$24400 is high but it’s exactly the same price as COL1
Option A – Top 7 from each full line (7 from each of FL1, FL2, FL3)
DAL 3, BOS 3, and SEA 3 I can see some appeal in if you are using the EDM PP stacks or COL1/PIT1.
Option B: Top 20 lines by median projection.
Remember, you don’t have to use exactly these lines but limit the number of lines you have available to your optimizer to roughly twenty.
Defencemen
Now Evan Bouchard is EXPENSIVE as fuck on PP1 for the Oilers. I think including Nurse in your pool of defencemen makes a lot of sense even though he is pp2. Other than that a lot of value defensemen in play. Apparently, everyone loves Erik Gustafsson (and as a guy who used him at sub 1%(maybe sub 5%?) when he got his hat trick last year it’s hard to blame them!) He’s fine enough to use here but if you are looking to avoid ownership then maybe stay away.
Goalie
Now above we talked about Blackwood and leverage – and if you want to play him again I wish you well, but I think for essentially the same price there are other good spots for leverage – Martin, Mrazek, Grubauer. People will be matching up their Oilers stacks with Dallas, TB and Colorado. One of those four (including Blackwood) goalies will surprise the field. Only time will tell!
Also, tucked all the way down there is Louis Domingue at $6500 – he will be very popular since the Rangers are -120 favourites. Probably not as good a leverage play for that fact.
Good luck out there and hit up discord with any questions!
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