Everything everywhere all at once.
The NHL and scheduling go together like nuts and gum.
But this week part of the reason was to get every team playing on one day. Today.
We have games starting at 6pm EST and then starting in 15 minute blocks for most of the rest of the night. However, the Draftkings slate ignores the first three games, and starts at a normal 7pm EST time. We will get to the slate in a minute, but first…
I was bored on Saturday and had some time.
I grabbed the projections and ran some lineups.
I did two things that I talked about last time in the hopes of getting some examples of the differences in results. The results were better than I could have hoped for and I think the results were interesting!
- I grabbed the top 7 lineups for each line – line 1, 2, and 3 (21 total lines)
- I grabbed the top 20 lineups by median projection.
For both versions I included only PP1 D and all goalies.
I used my optimizer to run 150 3-3 stacks for each option and let it used whatever D and G were best (these could end up correlated or uncorrelated)
Sunday I grabbed the actual points and analyzed the results from the $15:
From the $15 in order to play $150 it is a total entry fee of $2,250 for the chance of the top prize of $25K. (I was hoping to have the low dollar 150-max as well but will save that comparison for another day)
My results:
For A Group – Top 7
This grouping of lineups did something interesting.
It cashed 42 out of 150 lineups.
However, the interesting part is the exact 150th lineup showed up with 186.2 points. Tor2 and Dal3 with uncorrelated Josi/Matheson/Binnington.
Which would’ve taken first place – winning roughly $27,374 for all lineups.
Now if that last lineup is the 151st rather than 150th? Only $2,374. Teeny tiny profit.
DFS success or failure can be fickle beast.
For B – Top 20 Lines
I cashed 64 out of 150 lineups – 22 more!
However, my top lineup here only was 179.1 – good enough for fourth place and $3000. It showed up as the 92nd lineup out of 150.
Now because these lineups were geared more to the top expected points – they cashed more lineups and the lineups that did cash were higher in the standings. For a total of $7,603 for all lineups.
So it’s interesting to see the differences between the two strategies, and great to see the projections performing so well!
Having an optimizer is absolutely ESSENTIAL for MME’ing NHL contests and Paydirt will now be working with The Solver as an optimization and portfolio management solution. They’ll be handling and loading projections for NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA, and Esports for all Paydirt subscribers!
Starting next week, Paydirt projections will be an auto-loaded projection source for all of the handled sports for all Paydirt subscribers that also have a subscription at The Solver. If you are in need of an optimizer solution hit up the affiliate link here:https://thesolver.com/?ref=paydirt
I’m hoping to get to play around with The Solver’s NHL product in the next few days and give you some tips and tricks to build profitable lineups.
Slate Specific Thoughts:
As I said, there are games all over the place today. Starting every 15 minutes, it’s gonna be tough watching the warm up lines and goalies coming in. You will need to be paying a bit closer attention than usual.
Based on the above A and B options here’s what that could look like tonight:
A
B
Now there are a lot, A LOT, of cheap line options tonight. DK pricing team MAY have been focused on NBA – just maybe!
If it were me building 150 lineups tonight I’d stick with the lines from option B.
Looks like D pricing is fairly soft as well. No need to go deeper than these. Luke Hughes is PP1? Did Dougie Hamilton die???? Apparently Dougie is PP2. Um, include Dougie in your PP pool of players as well. Gotta think Luke Hughes will be EXTREMELY popular tonight.
Goalie there isn’t much of note – just take whatever the optimizer gives you. Or close your eyes and make a wish!
Good luck out there!