Stuck in the ice!
Some things stick in your mind in DFS.
On Tuesday, logging in 10 minutes after the slate has begun and seeing fourth liner Brandon Duhaime score two goals (one was changed later to Connor Dewar) in less than a minute is something that can stick around in your mind for a couple of reasons
1. They were some of the first goals of the slate
2. They were from a guy who is lucky to get 10 minutes of ice time a night.
You are annoyed that you didn’t play that line! Ugh!
“Maybe I *should* be including fourth line players in my optimization”
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Then that thought sticks around until the next slate.
It’s easy to forget about all the REST of the fourth lines from that slate (note all the lines below were taken from the afternoon of Oct 17th so don’t reflect late line changes but the example still holds):
Now sure, you get a couple of them popping with 24, 28 pts etc. but half of them aren’t even scoring 10 points TOTAL for the line.
Looking at the third line players, you don’t see much better. Except for that LAK3 line….
Here are lines 2 and then 1.
Now, obviously this is one slate – and anything can happen on one slate. But generally this is where the lines end up.
It’s all about giving yourself more chances at hitting a line that goes off. Lines 1 and 2 are by far more likely to give you that opportunity.
And a lot depends on the projections you are using too!
If you can’t trust the projections you are using then what good are they, right? Based on the Paydirt median projections above, taking the top 7 lines, (why 7? Because 20 does not divide nicely into 3) from lines 1, 2 and 3 leaves you with a pretty great set of lineups from which to have built.
Now is that always going to work?
Yes. Always. (Note to ask James about a sarcasm font). Printing money over here at Paydirt.
Speaking of printing money. How about that Warren Foegele call last time?!?! WOOF. Guy probably won’t score another goal until 2024.
Slate Specific Thoughts:
Twelve games tonight, fuck that!
Actually, not a lot wrong with 12 games except we do need to narrow down those lines! From the ROO export and using the logic above leaves us with:
If you want a way to narrow down the lines you want to include in your optimizer, you could do a lot worse! (Note the inclusion of future all star Warren Foegele). I think this ends up giving a nice mix of teams/lines.
However, some lines that get cut here, I am always a sucker for – NYR1 and FLA1 at home. Sometimes it’s fun to add a line you like because there’s a player you like or that line won you some money in the past.
Defencemen
Again it’s ONE slate but as an example from last Tuesday here’s where those PP1 D really stand out.
Now, of course, you are going to pay more for the pleasure. HENCE why Sean Durzi was the highest owned player in the $15 contests at 19.97% – not only defencemen, but of the forwards and goalies too. Take THAT Kirill Kaprizov!
If you are dead set on trying to find “value” D and not using guys on the PP then you want to make sure the guys you are playing are getting the ice time
I included the ice time that these NON PP D got in these games. More time = more chances for shots/blocks and those sweet sweet bonuses which is where these type of guys are going to get you ahead.
How does this translate to tonight?
Will ‘Minty’ be the big dog with the big ownership? Probably not since there are a few more “cheap” options on PP1 available today. I think this group of D is solid enough to not worry about adding any nonanyone else though.
May the hockey gods be with you if you roster a highly projected $6900 Petr Mrazek on the road in Colorado.
Good luck out there and hit up discord with any questions!
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