Welcome to Wednesday’s short three game NHL slate. Normally I won’t be writing up slates this size – but since it’s the first week I’ll go ahead and do it.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So the pricing on COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) is absurd. They’re about 3K too cheap. I have them at 35% owned right now – and they are firmly underowned. Last night we saw Edmonton come in underowned due to the pivots available in MTL, TOR, and VGK. I don’t expect that to be the case here and the ownership could certainly end up in the mid-40s where it should be. Artturi Lehkonen is probably much lower owned than his linemates due to the presence of cheap T.J. Hughes (3400) on the power play. Using Hughes makes it very easy to play Cale Makar and still afford a high-ceiling line. The one thing I want to say about this matchup is – and we saw it in the playoffs last year – the Kings can definitely gum up the works, slow games down, and tamp down the scoring. Playoff hockey is a different beast though. There’s just no reason to be under the field on $8700 MacKinnon here period. Full stop.
- The most popular pairings with either COL1 or MacKinnon/Necas/Hughes/Makar will be PHI2 (Dvorak/Konecny/Foerster) or PIT2 (Novak/Malkin/Chinakov). There’s no other way to put it – PIT2 was a wagon offensively last year (3.66 xG/60). However, they were not good defensively (2.99 xGA/60). Neither was the Dvorak/Konecny combination (2.88 xGA/60). This entire game is expected to be back-and-forth because PIT is likely to be abysmal defensively with shaky goaltending. Both of these lines look to be around 20% owned. PHI is certainly capable of slowing this game down though.
- If you want a pivot from this game – I do like PHI3 (Bump/Cates/Michkov). Michkov has reportedly lost over 30 pounds this offseason, worked his ass off, and really got into Rick Tocchet’s good graces. The Flyers didn’t give any of their top 3 lines dominant ice time last season – so there’s room for additonal ice time if these guys score early. They also get a matchup with the PIT depth – which promises to be something I’ll want to attack all season. These guys stink. I think it’s also totally fine to pivot to COL2 (Nelson/Kadri/Landeskog). That line was awesome last year in their own right and the Kings aren’t a team that committed many penalties last year. It’s a good thing too because any PK with Cody Ceci on it is simply not good.
- Another lower owned, less expensive line I find interesting is NYI2 (Ritchie/Maccelli/Schenn). We saw Schenn/Ritchie play well together down the stretch last year (4.12 xG/60). While that was with an excellent puck mover in Mat Barzal – Mathias Maccelli is no slouch in that department. He is an incredibly talented playmaker who has yet to really carve out a place in the league due to basically being completely lost on the defensive end. If there’s anybody who can get the most out of him it’s new Islanders head coach Pete DeBoer – who has long elevated the offensive games of those he’s coached. They should get plenty of ice time against the top 2 lines of the Leafs – who looked completely lost defensively for most of the game last night. Massive roster turnover does that to teams early in the year – especially when you’re talking about a teenage rookie in Gavin McKenna and a last-minute add in Kirill Marchenko (who has never been good defensively either. If you want to go to NYI1 (Horvat/Holmstrom/Palmieri – I have no issue with that either. They’ll both get plenty of ice time with all-world play driver Matthew Schaefer. I just prefer the price on NYI2.
- On the other side I think TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/McKenna) is the clear contrarian play of the slate. Yes – they do go up against this excellent Islanders defense corps and goaltending Demi-God Ilya Sorokin. Tavares/Nylander have been excellent for so long that doesn’t bother me. Gavin McKenna is still wildly overpriced at 6K and looked totally lost last night. He’ll be super low owned – but I’m fine leaving him off as well. I’m more bearish on TOR1 though. Their ownership looks roughly efficent.
- If you want to go to PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/Robertson) or PHI1 (Zegras/Martone/Tippett) that’s totally fine. They’re 15 and 20% owned respectievly and the Crosby line has traded chances forever. They will certainly not be better defensively with a sharpshooting gargoyle like Nick Robertson up there either. Owen Tippett is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate and Porter Martone is the clear favorite for the Calder Trophy this year (ROY). I like going Zegras/Martone/Michkov as a power play stack here as well. PIT doesn’t commit many penalties – but they can’t really kill them off either and I expect a big leap from the Flyers Power Play this season. Fire up anything and everything Philly with confidence. I like larger 5 and 6-man stacks of them as well.
- It looks like LAK1 (Byfield/Panarin/Kempe) checks in at about 20% here. Yeah – COL1 wasn’t great defensively last year. They take a bunch of chances though and I just don’t really see this Kings team being fast enough to skate away from these guys on the rush. LA was a slow team last season and adding Mats Zuccarello (as much as he will help their power play) did not help matters. I have little interest in this team overall.
- Cheap Power Play guys: TJ Hughes (3400), Tommy Novak (3500), Mathias Maccelli (3500), Tyson Foerster (4200), Matvei Michkov (4100)
- My Favorite cheap one-offs: Mathias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie, Emil Heineman, Matvei Michkov, Owen Tippett, Egor Chinakov, Alex Turcotte,
In smaller NHL fields – This is like last night. It’s hard to stray too far from COL1. I do like NYI2 and PHI3 as pivots away from the chalkier stuff though. I’d also be wary of the T.J. Hughes play. This isn’t likely to be a high-frequency power play spot and the Avs power play was surprisingly bad last season regardless.There are a ton of strong pivots on the cheap end I outlined above.
In large NHL fields – COL2, NYI2 and TOR2 look like very strong plays to me. I also think a 5 or 6-man Flyers stack is a very strong play tonight given how bad PIT is likely to be defensively and the chippy nature of this intra-state rivalry game. You could also go to a full game stack of that one as a strong way to fade Colorado. The Leafs were an absolute mess last night and they could’ve been beaten by much more.
NHL Defensemen
- Cale Makar (7000) projects at below 30% ownership somehow – and I really don’t understand. Yeah it’s a sub-optimal game environment and he’s been banged up. I just think he’s a great play at 28% and 1K too cheap. Brandt Clarke (5000), Darren Raddysh (5500), and Matthew Schaefer (6200) are all between 20-25% as well. Cam York (3500) and Jamie Drysdale (3700) are the cheap popular guys around 12-15% each. I love Schaefer here and expect him to play an absolute ton.
- Erik Karlsson (5700) is definitely a strong pivot at 13% ownership. However, the chalkier defensemen tend to pop up at pretty high rates on these shorter slates – so I’d be wary of jamming in these cheap guys unless it’s somebody like Brett Kulak (2500) in a Colorado stack.
- If you want a cheaper guy – Alexander Romanov (3100) blocks shots at an elite rate. Tony DeAngelo (3800) and Sam Malinski (4000) are two guys with some solid offensive skills. Brent Burns (3600) is 75 years old – but is a viable piece of a COL stack. Ryan Pulock (3200), Rasmus Ristolainen (3200), and Nick Seeler (2800) also seem viable. Ristolainen and DeAngelo probably have the best ceiling of these guys.
Cale Makar looks outstanding and is wildly underpriced like the rest of his team. His ceiling is so much higher than the rest of these guys though. Matthew Schaefer and Erik Karlsson also look like strong plays. I think this is a solid night to spend up at both defense spots if you can find a way to swing it. People will be spending down at one spot to Jam MacKinnon, Matthews, and the high end guys (rightly so) – but I like the cheap F/Cs much more tonight.
NHL Goalies
- Anthony Stolarz (7800) is the chalk here at 24%. Everyone else is between 14-16%
- If you have the stones to play Darcy Kuemper (7100) he has the highest ceiling and projects as the best value around the industry by a ton. I am an unapologetic Ilya Sorokin (7600) fan – and tonight is no exception. Toronto has incurred so much turnover and this is a much better defensive team than Montreal.
- Yesterday I asked Claude about goalie prices and Fantasy Point output. The answer was what I expected – there is no correlation between price and output. The share of 20+ point games is about the same. Salary does not forecast win and shutout bonuses well. The median projection creeps up with price – but the field also overplays them as a result.
- Confirmed: Stolarz (TOR), Vladar (PHI), Silovs (PIT), Blackwood (COL)
- Unconfirmed: Sorokin (NYI), Kuemper (LAK)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- COL1 is the clear chalk and by far the highest win probability play. The temptation will be to either drop Lehkonen for Hughes in order to comfortably play Makar – but as I outlined above this really isn’t a power play spot. COL1 by itself simply isn’t likely to come in high owned enough in all field sizes – but a big part of that will be the ownership gap between Lehkonen and MacKinnon/Necas
- Cale Makar is also simply not owned enough. He’s 1K too cheap. It’s not the best spot – but idrc.
- It’s definitely possible that this LAK/COL game is lower scoring. Therefore, I do like COL2 at much lower ownership. They were a wagon last year in their own right and can be had for a big discount due to lack of power play equity.
- The PIT/PHI game is likely to be a higher scoring affair – but I’m definitely higher on the PHI side here. PIT2 was awesome last year and Dvorak/Konecny aren’t good defensively – but that’s just one of the stances I’m taking here. In MME it’s reasonable to have plenty of both and game stacks of this game are a great way to fade COL.
- Teams with massive roster turnover tend to be a mess early – and the Leafs were no exception last night. The Islanders are my favorite large field team on the slate and NYI2 is my first choice. Ritchie/Schenn were excellent last year and I suspect this coaching staff may finally be able to facilitate the Maccelli breakout Hockey wonks like me have been waiting for. Matthew Schaefer, Ryan Pulock, and Alexander Romanov are also solid pieces on defense
- TOR2 is the top contrarian play of the slate. You can play McKenna or leave him off. He’s overpriced and doesn;t really know where to be yet.
- I think it’s a solid night to spend at both defense spots. Makar and Schaefer are my favorites. I also think going to two COL defensemen or more is a smart move. Brett Kulak is a solid punt play and Malinski/Burns are fine.
- Goalie I’d just pick somebody – but Kuemper is the highest variance, highest ceiling, and highest leverage play by a ton.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – It’s hard to get away from MacKinnon and Makar. I’d be reticent to go the TJ Hughes route for reasons I outlined above. I think there’s a ton of pivots in the mid-3K range that make sense. That’s also why I see spending up at defense in both spots as ideal. NYI2 and PHI3 are strong pivots away from the popular PIT2/PHI2 pairings.
In larger fields – It’s hard to fade cheap MacKinnon. I think playing him on top of COL2 makes a ton of sense though. If I’m playing COL1 I am not dropping Lehkonen though. He’s what is keeping the line’s ownership in check. I like spending up on two defensemen here as well. I think the value on some of the low owned skaters is better than the lower owned cheap defensemen with the exception of Kulak, Burns, and Malinski. TOR2, NYI2, NYI1, and PHI3 remain my favorite plays in the larger fields outside of COL2.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm