Welcome to Monday’s NHL slate. We’ve got a fun nine-gamer tonight – so let’s get into it.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- Early in the season we have seen the chalk win just about every slate. Enter DET1 (Larkin/Raymond/Arvidsson) at 17.2K, 15% ownership, and an elite projection against an Ottawa team that played last night and likely runs out terrible Sam Ersson in net. Larkin was with the top unit at morning skate – so I assume that’s the line they will be running out. I understand the projection – but there are a couple things to point out. First – they will get to tangle with Shane Pinto and his jolly band of thugs for a chunk of the evening. They allowed an elite 1.6 Expected goals per 60 last season. The same goes for the first defensive pairing of Chabot and Spence. Ottawa knows Ersson’s a project and they need to hide him. Second – as I said in my preseason video – this Red Wings team is the most dysfunctional in all of hockey. First Dylan Larkin asked for a trade, they stripped him of the Captaincy, and refused to trade him anywhere on his list. That spat continued in public all offseason. Then they fired long-time GM Steve Yzerman and replaced him with nobody for the bulk of the offseason. Next, they refused to pay defensemen Simon Edvinsson despite him showing up all camp with no contract. He has recently demanded a trade as well. We play DFS based on projection, pricing, and ownership. However, sometimes there’s a human factor involved – and this is one of those times. I’m going to stop short of saying they’re an outright bad play – because that’s not how we play DFS. Buyer Beware here though.
- The most popular pairings with them will be – oh boy – NYR1 (Zibanejad/Lafreniere/Perreault), NYR2 (Miller/Dorofeyev/Kartye) and NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Kerfoot). They’re both roughly 10% owned. The Rangers have made me eat my words early on with two impressive wins over Utah and Tampa Bay. Tonight they face the crosstown rival Islanders – who are scuffling without Mat Barzal and running out Semyon Varlamov in net instead of Sorokin. Varlamov is 38 and playing his first NHL regular season game in over 18 months. I’m not going to tell you it’s not a strong spot for the Rangers here. They’re generating offense just fine so far. Nashville and their high-event clown car of a roster is in Toronto tonight. These guys are underpriced for the pace this game is likely to be played at. You can add Forsberg instead of Kerfoot if you want – but I’m fine either way. I don’t mind either of these teams. I am reticent to play Rangers without clearly their best scorer in Pavel Dorofeyev (5900) though. Our model has strong projections on all of these lines tonight
- Outside of Detroit – Ownership is pretty flat and not really that important tonight. I will continue to emphasize what a clown car this Nashville team is likely to be this year. TOR1 (Matthews/Marchenko/Roslovic) projects very well for us and is probably about 10% owned. The team is in a strong spot – so I have no issue playing them at that number. TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/McKenna) is actually more expensive – but about 1/4 the ownership and is likely to face these Nashville depth lines that are likely to be terrible defensively once again. I don’t think you need to play McKenna at this point as he’s so overpriced. I think replacing him with Morgan Rielly or Auston Matthews does make sense here.
- Utah/New Jersey is certainly an interesting game. There’s a ton of talent here and also a wide range of outcomes – as both teams pride themselves on puck possession and shot suppression. The only line catching ownership here is NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Mantha) at 9-10%. I think I’d rather go to the Utah side here though. UTA1 (Keller/Schmaltz/Trocheck) and UTA2 (Cooley/Guenther/Lee) don’t project that well – but don’t have any ownership either. UTA2 isn’t carrying any ownership – but this line is going to be a beast all season. I could see going to a power play stack here as well. New Jersey does suppress shots – but weather it’s Jake Allen or Nico Daws the goaltending will be shaky here. Large field only here
- Florida/Los Angeles is another game that could potentially have some fireworks. LAK1 (Byfield/Panarin/Kempe) has been solid to start the year. Florida just lost Aleksander Barkov long-term (yeah, again). This is a big problem for them considering they lost defensive C Evan Rodrigues and Penalty Killer A.J. Greer in the offseason. The Panthers are a chippy team and Barkov is incredibly impactful for them in all phases of the game – especially on the PK. LAK1 comes with some ownership and they’ll tangle with the always tough Bennett line – but I don’t mind it considering the upside. Our model does have LAK2 (Turcotte/Zuccarello/Laferriere) as a value here as well. They’re fine for the price. We have a really strong projection on FLA1 (B. Tkachuk/Reinhart/Marchand) and I like them quite a bit as well. The same goes for FLA2. As I’ve said before – this Kings team is really slow and their defensemen are really old besides Clarke. I think this is a strong low-owned spot for FLA – but the loss of Barkov is a real concern
- Two of my favorite teams on this slate are MIN against BUF and STL against CHI. This Wild team is a wagon and BUF has looked pretty shaky defensively. The Wild are still figuring it out here – but MIN1 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Coleman) or a MIN PP stack are both firmly in play here. I have no objection to a Kaprizov one-off either. I’ve made no secret about how much I like STL1 (Thomas/Snuggerud/Holloway) and tonight is no exception. They come with some ownership – but they do get to face this Blackhawks team that has been blown apart by everyone. I also think STL2 (McTavish/McMichael/Buchnevich) is in play as a cheaper option and you can play Dvorsky/Neighbours as a cheap two-man if you want. You can also go to the Chicago side here. CHI1 (Kantserov/Nazar/Kane) projects extremely well in our model. I like CHI2 (Frondell/Bertuzzi/Teravainen) a bit better though. Frondell is the team’s best player right now. My only word of caution about STL/CHI is this could turn into a low event game – but Chicago is a mess right now.
- I have no objection to going with Ottawa here. All three of their top lines are fine and have no ownership. It’s just a bit slate.
- As far as roster construction goes – I have no objection to playing a more expensive stack tonight. VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) is up there with MIN PP, FLA, and STL1 for me tonight. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Kreider) also looks good. There’s plenty of cheap stuff I like. STL2 is very cheap at 11.9. I have no issue going back to OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Giroux) – as they’re going to be out there for 17-19 minutes against this poor Detroit team. NSH3 (Marchesseault/Bourque/Colton) are cheap and an interesting line from a talent standpoint. A Dvorsky/Neighbours 2-man seems totally fine. NJ3 (Rodrigues/Gritsyuk/Mercer) have been playing about 15 minutes a night and I am high on them this season. Tolvanen/Cuylle/Schneider is a decent way to get some contrarian access to the Rangers.
- Cheap Power Play guys: Nazar, Schenn, Maccelli, Olofsson, Wood, Ostlund, Shabonov
- Underpriced #TeamNonPP: Samoskevich (2800), E. Heineman (2900), Neighbours (2800), Carcone (2800), Brink (2800), Bourque (3100), Gritsyuk (3400)
In smaller NHL fields: I think it’s pretty wide open here. I’m very apprehensive about Detroit though. I just see the human element being a real factor here and the matchup is not as great as it seems when you look past the goalie. I’d probably go to TOR1, MIN1, STL1, or LAK1 before them.
In large NHL fields – I’m just not playing Detroit at 15% on a 9-game slate against the Pinto line. Florida and Utah are definitely two teams flying under the radar tonight. I think the opportunity is there to play expensive Vegas, or the MIN Power Play as well. We have STL2, OTT3, NJ3, and the Dvorsky/Neighbours pairing plus some cheap one-offs to leverage. Either side of the FLA/LAK game is strong as well – but moreso the FLA side.
NHL Defensemen
- It’s incredibly flat here. Roman Josi (6300), Rasmus Dahlin (6700), Adam Fox (5300), Darren Raddysh (6000), and Brandt Clarke (5200) are 10-12% owned. If there’s anybody who becomes true chalk it’s probably Fox – who is underpriced for his involvement in the offense. Darren Raddysh is strong as well.
- I will go right back to Thomas Chabot (5000) without hesitation. Shayne Gostisbehere (4600) and Dougie Hamilton (5000) look excellent. Noah Dobson (5100), Mikhail Sergachev (5700), and Mackenzie Weegar (4900) are also on my radar
- Quinn Hughes (7300) is my top spend here. I don’t mind pairing him with old man Jared Spurgeon (3300) either.
- Cam Fowler (3500) is my favorite cheap Power Play guy.
Ownership doesn’t really matter here. Just correlate or fall back on PP time/Projection. Fowler is a strong value against this awful CHI PK though.
NHL Goalies
- Igor Shesterkin (8100) and Jakub Dobes (7500) are the chalk at 15-16% each. Nobody else is in double digits.
- I’m not scared of Buffalo. Jesper Wallstedt is 7600. Fire away.
- Joel Hofer (8000) has been excellent for a long while now. Anthony Stolarz (8300) and Juuse Saros (7100) also seem like guys who will face volume.
- Confirmed: Wallstedt (MIN), Saros (NSH), Stolarz (TOR), Allen (NJ), Dobes (MTL), Shesterkin (NYR), Varlamov (NYI), Hofer (8000), Kuemper (LA)
- Unconfirmed: Ellis (BUF), Vejmelka (NSH), Bussi (CAR), Gibson (DET), Ersson (OTT), Knight (CHI), Daccord (SEA), Hill (VGK), Markstrom (FLA)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- DET1 is the chalk here. Do what you will. I’ve outlined my concerns. I think the Rangers and both sides of NSH/TOR are fine at ownership. No issues there.
- The FLA/LAK game is very interesting. There’s just no ownership on FLA. It seems like a spot to attack in large fields. The same goes for UTA, VGK, MTL, and to a lesser extent MIN.
- It’s fine to roll out more expensive stacks tonight. We have strong value with STL2, NJ3, and OTT3 imo.
- Defense is pretty much totally flat ownership-wise. Just stick to the guys who project well. I like Gostisbehere, Fox, Hamilton, and Chabot quite a bit. Quinn Hughes is obviously great if you can get him
- This is probably a 4-man stack night for me unless you want to go to a cheaper team like the Rangers or Nashville.
- I do think it’s viable to build around a cheaper team and try to jam in upside around them with two expensive guys. The Rangers and Predators are good candidates for this.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I’m probably not going to DET1 – but I understand if people want to. There’s just a lot of downside and it’s a huge slate. The Rangers, Predators, Leafs, and Kings all seem strong at slightly lower ownership. I’m probably not going to the Blues here due to low event risk – but I can see doing it.
In larger fields – It’s wide open. The teams with no ownership that I like are Vegas, Montreal, Utah, and Florida. I think Minnesota, Los Angeles, and St. Louis are fine at ownership. I’m fine going to more expensive stuff tonight because the value seems pretty strong with OTT3, STL2, and some other stuff.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm