Welcome to Monday’s NHL slate. We’ve got a small four-gamer tonight – but it’s a fun one – so let’s get into it.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- Lather, Rinse, Repeat. Dallas is too cheap. After two losses to inferior division teams – Dallas has gone back to some more reasonable lines that have performed better over the last few seasons. DAL1 (Robertson/Hintz/Benn) is the clear chalk at 33% owned. It makes perfect sense given that they’re absurdly underpriced at….ugh…14.8K. Thanks DraftKings. On top of that – they get to face the Sharks who have continued their penalty-happy ways early in the season. This is not a surprise given they brought in Trouba and Nurse. DAL2 (Johnston/Rantanen/Steel) comes in at 22% owned and also projects well – but not quite as well. They’re still 4K too cheap at 15.4. The Stars are also putting their best defensive pairings back together by going back to Heiskanen/Lindell and Harley/Lundkvist. These guys don’t pop up in sims that much at the moment because DAL1 is so much higher owned than anything else due to being wildly underpriced in an elite spot. If that continues to be the case I will be dropping their ownership closer to lock – as we’ve been seeing flatter ownership overall due to the prevelence of sims. You can obviously go to larger stacks here as well and it’s a reasonable way to go given the spot. However, the Sharks are not the total defensive disaster they were last year. I have no problem going here.
- There are two teams that you will see paired with DAL1 or DAL2 the most often – Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Both PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/Robertson) and TB1 (Kucherov/Point/Concalves) come in at 22-24% owned. The Penguins have been lighting up the scoreboard early on here with 13 goals in 2 games. This team was a juggernaut offensively last year and that has continued into this year. I have no issue with PIT1 in the low 20s or PIT2 (Novak/Malkin/Chinakov) at 15-17%. The only caveat I’ll give is that Winnipeg is not a slouch defensively. Morrissey/DeMelo and Samberg/Pionk have been very good for several years now – they just no longer have Connor Hellebuyck back there. I would not be afraid to mix in PIT3 (Kindel/Koivunen/Kuzmenko) either). Ben Kindel is a rising star in the NHL and they should see the much softer matchups here. Just like Dallas – larger stacks are firmly in play for this team. Just don’t limit it to just guys on the Power Play. That’s not necessarily where the scoring will come from here.
- Tampa Bay faces a Philadelphia team that has been reeling since getting their doors blown off against PIT on opening night. However, despite getting two excellent starts from Joseph Woll this weekend they are 0-3. The Flyers have been giving up a ton of shots on goal so far this year and the defense is something they will have to clean up. I have no issue going to TB1 (Kucherov/Point/Concalves) – but I do prefer TB2 (Cirelli/Guentzel/Hagel) at slightly lower ownership. Those guys were just the better even strength line last year and an absolute wagon on both ends of the ice. If you want to play Kucherov on top of those guys – that’s fine. It’s worth mentioning that Holmberg and Girgensons were well above average offensively last year at 2.77 xG/60. I would not be afraid to mix in guys from TB3 here. It’s worth noting that TB stacks absolutely dominate my early sims. So they’re a strong play – but probably higher owned than is reflected now. I’ll be moving them up.
- It really does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Perfetti) are a strong contrarian play tonight at a whopping 19.3K. The price should keep ownership down to 10% or so – but they come up only slightly less often than TB. PIT is a wagon offensively – but their defense looks pretty dreadful and it’ll be rookie Sergei Murashov in net tonight instead of Silovs. I’ve long held that WPG1 are power play merchants and aren’t great at even strength. These guys have scored 4 times in two games and they’ve all been on the power play. Pittsburgh might be next-level awful defensively though. I have no issue going to them and even mixing in WPG2 (Vilardi/Bjorck/Rosen). Viggo Bjorck is only 18 years old – but the Jets threw him straight into the fire after drafting him. He’s small – but really talented with the puck. Malkin/Chinakov/Novak are also a complete tire fire defensively. I like the game stack angle here quite a bit.
- We are seeing an appropriate level of ownership (16%) on BOS1 (Pastrnak/Lindholm/Peterka) tonight – as they continue to just be too cheap. However, Pastrnak and Elias Lindholm have just never played well together and now they get to face my favorite team on the slate – the Ottawa Senators. Boston is at home – but I expect them to still see plenty of the elite shutdown line (1.69 xGA/60 last year) that is OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio) and the stalwart defensive pairing of Thomas Chabot and Jordan Spence (1.6 xGA/60 last year). We saw OTT3 play a whopping 19 minutes chasing Auston Matthews around the other night and this should be no different. Boston is kind of a one-line and pairing defensive team at this point – so any of the Senators lines are in play. OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Foegele) are clearly underowned here at 5% and the 7% ownership on OTT2 (Cozens/Eklund/Zetterlund) is fair. I just expect OTT3 and OTT1 to play with the elite defensive pairing of Chabot/Spence more than OTT2. OTT3 is my favorite cheap line on the slate at 10.8K and 2% ownership. You can go Pinto/Giroux/Chabot for a 3-man, add in Amadio, or even just play Pinto as a one-off. Jeremy Swayman was great opening night – but I like this team a lot here and expect to hear that all year. I don’t see l;osing Tkachuk hurting them that much.
- SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Marchment) are also a strong contrarian play tonight. We have them with the highest raw projection on the slate. If you just want to play them and Askarov in a large field – fire away. SJ3 (Toffoli/Chernyshov/Misa) also seem like a strong cheap line. I like OTT3 better – but they’re both excellent. If you wanna go to a cheap PP stack of Zegras/Michkov/Foerster or an Owen Tippett one off – I won’t take you out of it – but I probably don’t get there.
- I’m just not going to Philadelphia here. They don’t project that well despite being super cheap and do not pop in my sims either.
- Cheap Power Play guys: Kindel (3500), Zegras (3600), Michkov (3700), Novak (3900), Wennberg (3300), Foerster (3800), Chernyshov (3600)
In smaller NHL fields: TB, DAL, PIT are probably the core choices. DAL/PIT and DAL/TB lineups grade out with the highest probability of a top-10 finish – but also monster ownership in the 160-170% range. However, the higher win rate stuff mostly includes one of WPG1/PP, SJ1, or some Ottawa combination along with a more popular team. I think WPG is a very strong play in these formats.
In large NHL fields – I love Ottawa here. They show up a disproportionate amount amongst the top 20 lineups over a large sample of cycles. They’re also inexpensive. OTT3 is definitely underpiced for the opportunity they will receive tonight. I think WPG1, PIT2, and SJ1 are also strong plays in these contests.
NHL Defensemen
- Erik Karlsson (5700) is 30% and Miro Heiskanen (5500) is 27%. Thomas Harley, Hampus Lindholm, and John Carlson are 17-20%. I have no issue with any of these guys and don’t mind eating ownership here. I do absolutely love some other guys though.
- Thomas Chabot (5100), Josh Morrissey (5800), Jordan Spence (3100), Victor Hedman (3400), Jacob Trouba (3900), and Luca Cagnoni (3500) are all very strong plays tonight. Morrissey and Chabot are 13-15% owned but definitely the top plays at the position for me. Chabot and his pairing partner Jordan Spence are going to be on the ice until they can’t skate anymore. Chabot played 28 minutes last time out. I don’t mind going with both Morrissey and his partner Dylan DeMelo (2600) either.
- If you want some random cheap guys I like Tyler Kleven (2800) quite a bit. He’s going to be out there for 18-20 minutes since OTT basically has 3 reliable defensemen left healthy.
- Cagnoni is the cheap power play guy du jour tonight along with Jamie Drysdale (3300) and Hampus Lindholm (3700)
- Travis Sanheim (3300) is going to play his usual 25 minutes and is a totally viable cheap guy. Esa Lindell (3300) is double-digit owned but pretty cheap
I have no issue with any of the chalkier guys. It’s once again a good night to play three defensemen to differentiate. Josh Morrissey and Thomas Chabot are both outstanding. Chabot is a borderline lock for me in smaller fields. He’s a fantastic real life player and likely leads the slate in minutes. I think you can definitely go Chabot/Spence or Morrissey/DeMelo if you want. Hedman, Trouba, Cagnoni, and Sanheim are all strong plays as well.
NHL Goalies
- Jeremy Swayman (8000) and Jake Oettinger (7900) are the clear chalk here at 22-25% each.
- Linus Ullmark (7400) faces the guy who replaced him in Boston tonight. As a former goalie – these are the kind of spots where you feel like there’s something to prove. I like him a lot. Clay Stevenson (7600) should see strong volume and has the upside to break the slate. Dan Vladar (7200) projects well here for 7200. Askarov (7500) is there I guess.
- Confirmed: Vladar (PHI), Stevenson (WPG), Murashov (PIT), Ullmark (OTT), Swayman (BOS), Askarov (SJ), Oettinger (DAL)
- Unconfirmed: Vasilevsky (TB)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- DAL1 is clearly underpriced and the top play here. How much higher owned will they be than PIT1 and TB1? I’m not certain as of yet. Right now I have them as the clear chalk – but that could change so be sure to get the updated ownership before building.
- It’s a toss-up for me between PIT1 and TB1. I like TB2 and PIT2 better than their top line counterparts at a slight discount.
- WPG1 and SJ1 both look like excellent larger field plays tonight – and WPG is small field viable as well. WPG/PIT game stacks could easily win all the money tonight.
- Don’t overlook PIT3 tonight. They’re great in larger PIT stacks and in game stacks. The defensive drop off after the top two pairings in WPG is serious.
- I think I made it pretty clear – but I love me some Senators tonight. OTT3 is going to play a ton once again. Same goes for Chabot and Spence. OTT1 and OTT2 are solid plays as well. This is my favorite GPP team on the board by a lot and there’s very little ownership here
- Chabot and Morrissey look like great alternatives to chalkier Karlsson and Heiskanen. Luca Cagnoni and Jakob Trouba are also very strong plays
- Don’t be afraid to go to multiple defensemen on the same team or three defensemen tonight. Thomas Chabot is absolutely somebody you can play at UTIL. The same goes for Karlsson and Morrissey.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – the combinations of DAL, PIT, and TB have the highest rates of top 10 finishes and excellent projections – but they fall behind the WPG and SJ lineups win rate-wise. I think a hard cap of 160% ownership in these formats is wise tonight. There is exactly one lineup in my sims exceeding that among the top 150 out of multiple runs. You can go to larger DAL, TB, or PIT stacks – but they did not sim out very well for me.
In larger fields – WPG1 and SJ1 are both very strong plays. I do love me some Senators though and they pop up a disproportionate amount towards the top of my sims and overall. OTT3, Chabot, Spence, and Stuetzle/Batherson are extremely strong – as is pretty much all three lines. I see this as less of a 5 or 6-man stack slate than the others so far this year. The scoring is likely to be distributed among many teams – as is the value,
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm