Happy Halloween! There’s only 3 NHL games – and they’re all spread throughout the day. I’m just going keep it short and to stick to what’s really important. today. Let’s get to it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 11:30 am ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
- There’s a pretty strong Industry consensus around the chalk today. It’s going to be some combination of the top 2 lines from WSH and ANH. Nobody from ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Terry), ANH2 (McTavish/Gauthier/Sennecke), WSH1 (Ovechkin/McMichael/Leonard), or WSH2 (Dubois/Protas/Wilson) will be under 20% owned except for Leonard and Sennecke. I expect ownership upwards of 28-30% on both WSH1 and WSH2 – and I would think they get to 35% in smaller fields.
- Washington is – by far – the best projected team on the slate and Ovechkin is – by far – the best projected player on the slate. They are definitely to the point where they are underpriced. Dylan Strome is a significant loss for that first line if he’s out. McMichael is a good player, but not a center by trade. That could really hurt that line and the Power Play.
- A reasonable way to play WSH2 is Wilson/Dubois/Chycrun/Roy. Both defensemen project pretty well and you get some PP1 equity without eating the Ovechkin chalk
- Washington is a tough fade at these projections and prices, but it’s a small slate and it’s NHL DFS. Anything could happen.
- Anaheim looks like the overowned team here. They just don’t project as underpriced and I think the field is on them due to recency bias and the DET goaltending being awful so far.
- PD Projects COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Colton) as a strong value as well
- Something to keep in mind if you choose to play COL1: there are limited combinations that are actually available to fit them on this slate. I would say that a straight 4/3/1 COL1 stack in large field GPPs has pretty high duplication risk if it’s well projected. That said – too many people will drop Lehkonen (5000) and play stuff like MacKinnon/Necas/Olofsson or Nichushkin, Mackinnon/Necas, or MacKinnon/Makar. Lehkonen will have much lower ownership than the other two guys on the line because he isn’t on the PP. Vegas has committed the least amount of penalties over the last 3 years anyway. If COL1 gets there, it’s not likely to be through the PP.
- My favorite line of the night is probably VGK2. These guys are just really good. The COL depth and Goaltending has not been good so far, Vegas is at home, and they’re reasonably priced.
- DET1/PP stacks are close behind. I like them quite a bit.
- The clear sicko play on this slate is the Islanders. They do not project well, but I think all 3 lines are in play. If you want to play COL1, some cheap Islanders are logical way to do it.
Synopsis: Washington is the chalk here – and they should be despite the fact that I don’t think they’re very good. They’re underpriced. You’ll have to get a bit creative with them – even in smaller fields – though. They’re going to be super owned. I also think losing Strome really hurts the Caps first line and PP. If I’m fading something in smaller fields, I think it’s Ovechkin. It’s definitely reasonable to be under on them in large field GPPs though. Sorokin’s off to a tough start, but he’s got a long history of being good. There’s definitely a path to failure there, but being under on ANH instead is also a reasonable move. My two favorite lines for large field are COL1 and VGK2. That’s just the best game environment by a lot and the expensive defensemen all look chalky. I definitely think playing Lehkonen or COL2 is the move if you’re stacking Avs though. My favorite of the Islanders lines is NYI2 (Barzal/Lee/Holmstrom). Barzal/Lee lines have historically been pretty good.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The most popular one-offs here are most likely Ovechkin (6800), Cutter Gauthier (5900), and MacKinnon (9000). I think playing any of them is fine, but I’ve already mentioned my concerns about Ovechkin multiple times this year. I do think Jack Eichel (8500) is a fine pivot away from MacKinnon. PD has a 3-point projection gap between them, but that’s an outlier in the Industry. I’m not sure a big ownership gap exists between them and that’s the problem with one-offing Eichel to me.
- We’ve come to the point where Lehkonen’s seen his price drop to 5K. There is now a very clear path to him getting there and the rest of the line being unnecessary – especially in a spot where COL probably isn’t winning on the PP. Lehkonen is an elite one-off on this slate.
- The other one-offs I like are – you guessed it – the net front guys on the PP. Tomas Hertl (5500), Chris Kreider (520), and Alex DeBrincat (6300) all make a ton of sense.
- You can one-off any of the Islanders guys here. Bo Horvat (7100) is a great large field play. The same can be said for Kyle Palmieri (5600), and Anders Lee (4700). Matt Barzal (6600) probably gets there via assists, so he makes less sense to me as a one-off.
- The cheap PP guy the field will want is Victor Olofsson (4000). I prefer Anders Lee (4700) or Frank Vatrano (3700) instead. They project well.
- If you just need a cheap guy, I think Brett Howden (2500) is fine. He typically gets 13-14 minutes, shoots a little, and projects pretty well.
Synopsis: If you want to be contrarian, just play a one-off that projects well and isn’t on the PP. Otherwise, I like the net front guys in Hertl, Kreider, and Debrincat. Olofsson is fine, but it’s just the nut worst PP spot for COL. I think Lehkonen is an elite one-off and Anders Lee isn’t far behind. Go #TeamNonPP.
NHL Defense
- Jakob Chycrun (5400) is the clear chalk play of the night at defense. He’s likely 35% owned in large field and probably over 40 in small field. Jackson LaCombe (5000) is probably around 30% in both formats as well. They’re probably both underpriced. I prefer Chycrun if I’m picking one
- Cale Makar (7500) probably comes in at around 25%, but is an elite play nonetheless.
- PD likes Tony DeAngelo (3400) and Alexander Romanov (2500) as values. I agree.
- I think Moritz Seider (5200) has gotten cheap enough to play on his own – despite his lack of shooting. I also like Shea Theodore (5900) and Brent Burns (3800)
- Matthew Schaefer (5300) is going to be my highest owned defensemen. This guy runs the PP and shoots a ton.
- If you want to play WSH I like the Idea of Chycrun/Roy together. You can do Chycrun/Carlson too – they’re both on the PP – but I prefer the former at the prices. I’m not doing the latter unless it’s a 5-man stack or more.
- You can definitely play 3 defensemen here if one of them is Makar
Synopsis: The chalk seems fine. Makar is also a very strong play. The Islanders cheap guys look good. Schaefer is pretty close to a lock button for me.
Goalies
- Logan Thompson (8200) is the clear chalk here. He’s probably 40% owned. I’d guess Dostal (8000) comes in second at a bit over 20%
- Ilya Sorokin (7200) is the leverage play. He’s been bad, but that has not been the case long term. Goalies are super streaky and he’s probably the lowest owned one. I like John Gibson (7400) as well.
- PD Likes Thompson and Whomever is in net for the Avs
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I feel pretty confident that WSH and ANH are the chalk teams here. The Caps are underpriced here, but it’s still hockey and they may be without their best center. They project really well, but there’s systemic risk here. That’s especially true for the Ovechkin line if Strome is out. I will be aggressively fading WSH1 if that is the case.
- Our sheets and projections like WSH1, WSH2, COL2, and DET2 from a value perspective
- The Islanders are the clear leverage play and I will have a ton of them in large field. That Lee/Barzal/Holmstrom line looks great. So do Schaefer, Romanov, and DeAngelo
- Ovechkin will be the most popular skater on the slate. 40%+ owned Ovechkin is too much for me. Pivot to someone else as a one-off.
- I think COL1 is a strong play. However, don’t get fixated on PP stacks. That’s probably not how they’ll get there. Lehkonen will be lower owned.
- VGK2 and DET1/PP are my top non-Islanders plays. VGK2 is cheaper than COL1, correlated on the PP, and probably end up facing depth lines that just aren’t that good defensively. DET1 is correlated on the PP, Seider is underpriced, and DeBrincat looks underowned.
NHL Synopsis
I am concerned about the Caps ownership here in all formats. They’re underpriced, but I think this team has serious systemic failure risk without Strome. Ovechkin in particular seems like a strong guy to be under the field on. 40%+ is too much ownership for me. If I’m picking between ANH and DET to pair with them, I prefer DET. Seider is underpriced and I think DeBrincat looks awesome.
In smaller fields, I think you just fade one of WSH/ANH. That ANH/DET game is super volatile. COL2 with a double spend up at defense is certainly a viable option.
In larger fields, the Islanders are the clear leverage and highest win equity play. I really like the Barzal/Lee/Holmstrom line and the three defensemen listed above. VGK2, COL2, and DET1/PP are my favorites outside of the Islanders. I think it makes sense to fish for ceiling here as well. Therefore, I like Hertl, DeBrincat, and Kreider as net front guys on the PP. I think Lehkonen is also an awesome one-off if you’re not playing COL1. They are unlikely to get more than 2-3 chances on the PP here. There’s no need to chase COL PP stacks.
In conclusion, you have to decide what to do with WSH. I’m probably inclined to be under on WSH1 for sure – if not all the Caps in large field.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm