Welcome to Friday’s NHL slate. We’ve got a small four-gamer tonight with a solid 50K prize pool up top – so let’s get into it.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The chalk is way too cheap. DAL2 (Robertson/Hintz/Seguin) are 30% and it’s justified against this Blues team. Jason Robertson turned down what would have been one of the richest contracts ever from Seattle to play on a 1-year deal with Dallas. He’s a ridiculous value – even at 7600. This line is even more underpriced than EDM1 was on opening night and Robertson is chalk at 35% for a reason. They are overowned for their probability – but it’s hard to quibble with the price. DAL1 (Johnston/Rantanen/Hryckowian) comes in at 22%. They are also absurdly underpriced. Yes, larger stacks of this team are firmly in play. It’s worth noting that our model is definitely more bearish on DAL1 than the industry. Wyatt Johnston will absolutely regress this year and not score 40 goals again – but that’s for another conversation.
- The most popular pairing with one Dallas line or the other will be ANH1 (Carlsson/Gauthier/Greer). They’re incredibly talented and are tied for the highest 3x on the slate. If I’m getting different somewhere – this is a logical spot though. 22% ownership is a lot for this line going into Vegas to play a healthy Vegas team.
- The clear alternative to Dallas on this slate is VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev). I’m not sure what more I can say – these guys are awesome. The Vegas Power Play is an absolute wagon when Mark Stone is on the ice, this Anaheim team took the 5th most penalties per game last year, and they had to hollow out their defense in the offseason due to management’s blundering. These guys don’t come with a huge discount at 16% – but the leverage will come from fading Dallas. The Anaheim depth has been totally remade this offseason and looks worse than last year. VGK3 (Hertl/Olofsson/Connelly) is tied with ANH1 for the highest 3x on the slate. You can fire them up as a value line with confidence. I assume DAL PP/VGK3 will be a popular build though. VGK2 (Karlsson/Marner/Howden) is the lowest owned and the worst projected. They seem fine depsite mediocre projections. We really have little to go on this early in the year.
- Washington may have done more to upgrade their team in the offseason than anyone – but their defense looks like a problem. I’m fine firing up any line from Carolina you want here despite facing Logan Thompson. As we saw last night – even great goalies can come into the season rusty (cough…Vasilevsky…cough). CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) really needs no introduction and they’re fantastic here at 15.4. Great pivot off Dallas.
- The super-volatile, underowned game on this slate is definitely BOS/WPG. The Jets return the same excellent defense as in previous years – but without all-world goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Somehow I suspect Stuart Skinner is a downgrade. They’ve never really been good at even strength – but Scheifele/Connor/Perfetti are a strong play here as a fully correlated line facing this Boston team that isn’t shy about spending time in the Penalty Box. This is probably the most underowned line on the slate and definitely one to invest in for large fields. I’m not as enamored with the Boston side. They continue to run out Elias Lindholm on the first line despite him and Pastrnak really never playing well together for any extended period of time. They’re certainly playable though.
- The last team I’ll talk about is the St. Louis Blues. STL1 (Holloway/Thomas/Snuggerud) are not in a good matchup by any means – but they were fantastic last year (3.55 xGoals/60) and generated a ton of high danger chances. They are the obvious leverage play here. STL2 (McTavish/McMichael/Buchnevich) is an interesting contrarian cheap line here that’s a total wild card.
- You can go to Washington here – but I probably won’t outside of MME. It’s a terrible matchup, these lines are going to be in flux, and Ovechkin is likely to be playing 12-13 minutes of even strength time per game this year (so 3rd line minutes). Their lines have potential – but there’s a ton of turnover here and I prefer to wait for them to gel a bit and be in a better spot. For you betting folks – I also think that game goes under 6.5 tonight.
- It’s early in the year – so we don’t really know much. If there’s a weird depth line that projects well – don’t be afraid to play it. They could be another PIT3 from the other night. I continue to believe BOS3 (Minten/Hagans/Khusnutdinov) is going to be strong all season.
- Cheap Power Play guys: Luc-Dubois (4100)
In smaller NHL fields – I see little reason to fade Dallas. They’re underpriced. Don’t get cute here. Larger 5 and 6-man stacks are firmly in play. I think it’s ok to get away from Anaheim though. We have viable alternatives.
In large NHL fields – Dallas is still very strong – but you’ll want to be playing some of the more unorthodox defensemen and depth guys. They’re going to be very popular and all the scoring is very rarely concentrated in just the Power Play guys. I think STL1, STL2, and WPG1 are all strong large field plays tonight as well.
NHL Defensemen
- Jackson LaCombe (5000) is the chalk here at 21%. He’s underpriced at 5K and is going to have to play a ton for this team to be good again. Thomas Harley (4100), Rasmus Andersson (4700), Pavel Mintyukov (2700), and Miro Heiskanen (5700) are all 15-18%. All these guys look great.
- Shayne Gostisbehere (4500) is my top play at the position. Shea Theodore (5400) is also excellent. I will never tell anyone to not play Jake Chycrun (6100) – but this is a tough spot for him in a shot-suppressing matchup.
- Josh Morrissey (5500) might be the most underrated defensemen in Hockey. He’s only slightly below the elite tier of Defensemen. I love him tonight.
- Hampus Lindholm (3800) is running the PP for Boston and playing a ton. He’s a solid cheap option. The same goes for Philip Broberg (3900)
- The Ducks backed up the dump truck and gave Tristan Luneau (3600) over $40 million dollars after about a dozen NHL games. They obviously expect big things from him and he’s a promising young prospect. You can certainly use him or Travis Mitchell (2500) to be different tonight.
- The same goes for Noah Hanifin. He’s a very viable pairing with any Vegas stack.
I have no issue with any of the chalkier guys. It’s a good night to play three defensemen to differentiate. Josh Morrissey, Hampus Lindholm, and Noah Hanifin are three guys I like that can help differentiate a lineup. Don’t be afraid to play these depth defensemen with your larger stacks. We’ve seen that win multiple times already.
NHL Goalies
- Logan Thompson (7400) and Lukas Dostal (7300) are the chalk tonight at 18% each. The ownership is pretty flat. They should both be under siege tonight.
- As I mentioned in my video – Jeremy Swayman (7800) looked outstanding in the preseason and that continued into opening night. He’s making saves without having to move quickly. That’s the mark of a goalie that’s locked in.
- Dallas is the chalk – but Joel Hofer (7100) was legitimately excellent last year. If you’re not playing Dallas I think he makes sense.
- Confirmed: Thompson (WSH)
- Unconfirmed: Bussi (CAR), Swayman (BOS), Skinner (WPG), Oettinger (DAL), Hofer (STL), Dostal (ANH), Hart (VGK)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- Dallas is the clear chalk team. DAL2 probably ends up in the low 30s ownership-wise. Just keep in mind that – like the other night with COL1 – Seguin being off the power play is the only thing keeping their ownership reasonable. They’re overowned – but also so underpriced I’m not sure it matters much. DAL1 comes in with lower ownership. You can certainly go with larger stacks here as well. The best bet is to incorporate the more obscure players though. That’s what has been winning.
- I will note that the Blues haven’t exactly played high event hockey in the past two years. They also don’t commit many penalties. This is a great spot – but the path to failure for Dallas is much bigger than it was for Edmonton or Colorado.
- ANH1 is the clear chalk pairing with Dallas. I think there are options to pivot off them – but they look phenomenal in our model.
- Vegas is the clear pivot away from Dallas. VGK1 has been fantastic and is half the ownership of DAL2 – but also substantially more expensive. VGK3 is a fine secondary line. I think a larger Vegas stack is firmly in play as well.
- If you don’t want to go with the 5 or 6-man stack – STL1, WPG1, and STL2 are all standouts tonight. DAL3 and BOS3 both look great on the cheap end as values pivots away from VGK3.
- Carolina is also a strong pivot away from one of the chalky teams.
- It’s usually best to stick closer to the chalky defensemen on smaller slates – but don’t be afraid to roster three of them with one being a dirt cheap guy. That has won multiple times already this year. NHL is about having the combination of 4-6 huge scores. You often don’t have to nail every spot.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – Dallas is really where it starts. They look phenomenal. I think looking at a larger stack, pivoting off ANH1, or going three defensemen are all solid ways to be contrarian tonight.
In larger fields – I think it’s ok to be under the field on Dallas – but they are wildly underpriced. This is definitely a spot with a higher rate of failure than Colorado or Edmonton have been in. WPG1 looks fantastic – as does Josh Morrissey. I also like Swayman though so I’m torn. STL1 is a very strong play in these formats – as is a larger Vegas or Carolina stack. These are elite offenses. The gap between them and Dallas just isn’t that wide.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm