Welcome to Monday’s 2-game NHL slate. I won’t normally have content for small slates, but I find this one particularly interesting – so let’s get into it.
This article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
- We have some pretty clear chalk at the top here in NHL DFS tonight – it’s BOS1 (Lindholm/Pastrnak/Geekie) and PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Hallander) at ownership in the mid-30s. I expect you will see PIT1 paired with OTT1 (Steuzle/Batherson/Cousins) and BOS1 paired with OTT2 (Cozens/Greig/Perron) or OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio) as the chalk combinations
- Some outlets have STL1 (Suter/Buchnevich/Snuggerud) and STL2 (Schenn/Kyrou/Joseph) as similarly or higher owned than OTT2/3. I could see that for STL2 – as it has some pretty strong Industry projections, but not so much for STL1. You just don’t need the savings STL1 offers you and I suspect people are more interested in attacking the BOS/OTT game. Content providers have talked about that being the higher scoring game.
- PD is definitely bullish on STL1. We are also well over the Industry on BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zacha) and STL3 (Sundqvist/Holloway/Texier). Those are definitely the lines showing the biggest edge in GPPs
- As far as myself – I definitely like BOS2 at their Industry-wide ownership projections of 3-4%. STL3 is also really interesting at lower ownership.
- OTT has been taking a metric ton of penalties early on. BOS PP and larger stacks look great.
- If you choose to play OTT I definitely prefer playing the depth lines rather than OTT1. The Bruins’ defense just falls off a cliff after that first line – which is actually pretty good.
- The way I prefer to attack this slate is through either PIT or STL though. A larger PIT stack that folds in PIT2 with PIT1 makes a lot of sense. You can apply the same principal to BOS as well. STL1 is my favorite line of the slate though. They’re the most underpriced and (possibly) the most underowned in large field GPPs. I expect them to be higher owned in the higher stakes events though.
- I think another way to attack this slate is to just stay away from Rust, Crosby, and BOS1 entirely. I see no reason why one should spend all their salary on this NHL slate.
Synopsis: BOS1 or PIT1 paired with OTT is the chalk move here. I prefer either a PIT overtstack, STL PP stack, or BOS PP stack with Mittlestadt/Arvidsson rolled in.
NHL Defense
- Jake Sanderson (6000), Thomas Chabot (4900), Erik Karlsson (4900), and Charlie McAvoy (5400) are the chalk defenders. They will encompass over half the total ownership on the slate.
- Colton Parayko (4700) is my favorite play on the entire slate. He’s on the ice a ton, is really productive, but doesn’t play on the PP. He might come in low double digits in large field and that’s totally silly. Kris Letang (3800) is also underpriced and looks great around 10%. So does Justin Faulk (4200).
- Mason Lohrei (3200) and Artem Zub (3400) are definitely viable pivots from their chalk pairing partners in McAvoy/Sanderson. Philip Broberg (3600) is a guy with little ownership that plays a bunch and has been productive in the past. Harrison Brunicke (2500) is a punt that projects pretty well.
- This is a slate where the field will be trying to spend all their salary. You could always just pay down for pivots on defense and leave salary on the table. That’s a solid option here
Synopsis: Jamming the expensive defensemen will be a popular strategy here – especially in smaller fields. Playing guys that are cheaper will probably be contrarian because it’s a worse projected thing to do. However, it’s a 2-game slate. Embrace some variance in exchange for lower ownership. Think in terms of probabilities as well as projection
Goalies
- Merlainen (8000) will be the chalk here at 40%. Our models like him the best
- I prefer Jeremy Swayman (7400). He projects only slightly worse and about 1/3 as owned.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The field is going to play one of BOS1/PIT1 with a line from OTT. Industry sources suggest STL will be almost as owned, but I don’t buy that. There’s a lot of negative sentiment around STL and also the BOS defense.
- Our sheets and projections like PIT1 the best value-wise. They think STL2 is a better point/$ value than OTT1, but I suspect OTT1 is higher owned anyway.
- STL1 projects as the best value on the slate and I agree. I love them and everything Blues.
- BOS2 and STL3 look like particularly strong plays when you factor in ownership. Dylan Holloway (5800) has been terrible and is likely low single digits in larger fields. He looks great to me.
- I think larger stacks of really any team are fine. Playing OTT2 and 3, but not OTT1 seems like a solid idea to me.,
- Defense ownership is really concentrated on the 4 guys mentioned. I like Parayko as a pivot. The cheap guys who aren’t on the PP will be lower owned as usual
- Merlainen is the chalk goalie. Swayman looks fine.
NHL Synopsis
The strongest play to me looks like coming in under on OTT and over on STL. I think not spending all the salary is a great way to go as well.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm