Welcome to Tuesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a huge slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- There are two lines that need to be discussed ownership-wise tonight. Those are CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchment/Marchenko) at 20% and DAL1 (Johnston/Robertson/Bourque) at 15%. I’m not going to talk a lot about Dallas here – I think their ownership is pretty efficient and matches their probability. If you want to play them I think it’s totally fine to do so in any format. I’d probably lean toward the power play though – as CGY is a pretty good defensive team at even strength. CBJ1 is a different discussion. There’s a glut of lines in their price range and that is a ton of ownership to sink into a team like Columbus. Nashville has been bad defensively recently and juggled their lines – making themselves even worse – but I have a hard time eating that much in this context.
- I am also going to address the Calgary Flames’ ownership. I currently have CGY1 (Kadri/ZaryFarabee) and CGY2 (Backlund/Coranato/Sharangovich) both at 7-8%. This was before we found out That uber-prospect Zayne Parekh will finally be running PP1 for them at 2500. My guess is that this bumps up their ownership – and leads to WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) and COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog) both getting up to around 10-12%. COL1 is still the best line in the league against Anaheim. There’s not much else to say. I do think it’s worth mentioning that WPG1 is not particularly good at even strength – and that’s where they will need to get it done against a Bedard line that is putrid defensively. The Chicago penalty kill is excellent. I think this is a fine spot – but I think their win probability is being over-projected by some in the Industry. The 20K+ stacks also do not have a particularly strong win rate on these larger slates.
- I think Columbus is worth discussing a bit. I am assuming Zach Werenski returns here since it was just an illness, but he is questionable. Werenski actually plays the majority of his minutes with CBJ2 (Monahan/Jenner/Heinen) and CBJ3 (Coyle/Sillinger/Olivier). I think a leveraged way to approach Columbus is to go with something like Monahan/Jenner/Werenski. Those will be two of the lower owned guys due to not being on PP1 – but it’s not really a power play spot anyway. The Columbus power play has been bad and the Nashville PK has been pretty good.
- Speaking of Nashville – I do like the Preds a fair amount tonight. NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Marchesseault) and NSH2 (Haula/Forsberg/Evangelista) both project pretty well at about 15K apiece. A Bunting/McCarron 2-man is also in play – as they project pretty well and have posted good numbers. These guys are so well priced that I think a 5-man stack is totally fine. The field seems to be on the Columbus side here – but I prefer this side at substantially lower ownership. It’s not like CBJ is any good defensively and the Preds actually lead the NHL in expected goals over their last 10 games.
- Speaking of expected goals – my guys the Ottawa Senators come in second over the last 10 games. They are facing this Edmonton team that is in the middle of a total defensive collapse over the last week. It’s been so bad that they had to go out and trade a 2nd round pick for a mid defensemen in Connor Murphy. The Sens are also competitively priced in the same area as Nashville. OTT2 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig) is probably my favorite even strength line, but any of the top 3 are in play – as is a power play stack with Tkachuk/Cozens/Sanderson and one of Stuetzle/Batherson. I’d probably stick to a 4-man stack here, but Edmonton is absolutely capable of melting down – especially on the PK where they have been awful. Oh yeah – and EDM is 29th in expected goals against in the last 10 games.
- Our NHL models are also pretty bullish on the Buffalo Sabres. BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs) probably gets about 7-8% ownership and they project pretty well. However, I am going to continue banging the drum for Josh Norris and Josh Doan like I have all year. Vegas does not take many penalties – but Buffalo has been drawing 4-5/game over the last 10. The Vegas PK is great – but so is the Buffalo power play. I do not mind going to a Thompson/Dahlin/Doan/Norris stack here despite the matchup and risk of a low-event game. BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn) have also been pretty good all year and continue to be cheap. A Doan/Norris 2-man with or without one of Byram/Power also seems like a strong way to get cheap exposure. We have a 3.68 total on the Sabres – the second highest behind COL at 3.72. I probably like this spot more than I should though.
- This ANH/COL game projects to be extremely fast. I will continue to play lines against COL1 – and ANH1 is certainly no exception.
- TB/MIN is another interesting one. TB1 (Point/Guentzel/Bjorkstrand) and TB2 (Kucherov/Cirelli/Hagel) both come in at 1-2% ownership. The Power Play is how you beat Minnesota and I think it’s a big enough slate where you can just play TB1 for the full correlation and take your chances without Kucherov and his $9600 salary. The Minnesota side is also very interesting here. Tampa continues to take a ton of penalties – 2nd most in the league over the last 20 games and the most over the last 10. The Minnesota Power Play continues to chug along with Quinn Hughes at the helm and is 1st in expected goals over the last 20 and 2nd over the last 10. Kaprizov is also down to 8500 and Vasilevsky has looked shaky on the PK recently. This is a pretty high ceiling spot for both power plays – but I probably prefer MIN slightly. These teams are probably both large field only.
- I’m also going to address this SJ/MTL game. SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Sherwood) and MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Dach) probably both get 8-10% ownership and have solid upside. These teams are both penalty-happy and have struggled on the PK. I want to issue a word of caution here though – this game is going to be very slow and possibly pretty low event. It’s going to be heavily reliant on both teams’ power plays. I think my first choice here is a Suzuki/Caufield/Dobson 3-man – as the field will go to the first two, but not to Dobson. He has been excellent at even strength all year. You can roll in Hutson or Slafkovsky as the 4th guy if you want – but the first 3 are my favorites. You can also go to SJ1 or SJ2 (Misa/Toffoli/Eklund). The latter is actually my preference – as they will likely see the matchups against the MTL depth that is very shaky defensively. Long story short – I can definitely see full fading this game or heavily investing from an MME standpoint.
- Another team I also find interesting is Chicago. We have them projected as strong values at very cheap prices with no ownership. If you want to jam in COL1 – I think CHI3 (Bertuzzi/Dickinson/Mikheyev) is absolutely in play. They are playing 16-17 minutes a night for 10K. Sign me up. CHI1 (Bedard/Burakovsky/Greene) also projects pretty well – but they have not been very good without Bertuzzi up there. You can throw Pittsburgh into this pile as well. Our sheets really like the spot for them – but I just don’t know who – if anyone – I want to play here. It’s hard to get behind the PIT power play without Crosby – even against penalty-happy Boston and their awful PK. I guess I’d lean PIT2 (Malkin/Chinakov/Novak) or a power play stack (Malkin/Rust/Rakell/Karlsson) – but I’m not enamored even though we are over a half a goal more optimistic on their total than Vegas.
In smaller fields – There’s a few ways to go. I’m probably not eating chalky Columbus, Dallas, or Winnipeg. I think fading Columbus and going with a mid-tier strategy, focusing on power play correlated lines and well-projected players makes a lot of sense. It’s pretty wide open outside of those three teams – but MTL PP, NSH1/2, ANH1, and OTT1/2 all make a ton of sense to me. You could certainly go to COL1 if you want. There are strong values in CHI3, Norris/Doan, SJ2, and OTT3 to utilize. I’m just staying away from the expensive lines tonight
In large fields, it’s wide open. I think fading Columbus and the MTL/SJ game is a great place to start. Columbus is just way overowned and I could definitely see the latter being a low-event slog. My approach here isn’t all that different from smaller fields tonight – except that I think investing in TB/MIN is a reasonable thing to do. The same goes for Buffalo, Chicago, and Pittsburgh.
NHL Defense
- I have Jake Chycrun as the highest owned defensemen at 13% – but I expect this to change with Zayne Parekh (2500) running PP1 and the status of Zach Werenski up in the air. If Werenski plays I expect Werenski/Parekh to be the firm chalk here. I love Parekh – but he’s a rookie who has not played well this year. I would not consider this to be a lock play by any means.
- I intend to spend money at both defense spots tonight. Rasmus Dahlin (6100), Jake Sanderson (5800), Darren Raddysh (6600), and Quinn Hughes are all firmly in play for me. Miro Heiskanen (6000) makes a lot of sense in this power play-dependent matchup as well.
- In the mid-tier I like Lane Hutson (5400), Noah Dobson (5200), Dougie Hamilton (5100), Jacob Trouba (4800), Erik Karlsson (4600), Mike Matheson (4400), and Thomas Chabot (4200).
- You can definitely play two of Dobson, Matheson, and Hutson with Suzuki/Caufield.
- I like Nashville – but I’m more bearish on Roman Josi (7600). That’s a steep price for him, but I do not think he’s bad tonight.
- On the cheaper end – besides Parekh – I like Uvis Balinskas (3200), Owen Power (3200), Bowen Byram (3000), Dimtry Orlov (2900), and Simon Nemec (2800). I think Balinskas and Orlov are sharp pivots away from Parekh as cheap power play guys in better spots.
- I like Ivan Provorov (3400), Damon Severson (3300), Denton Mateyechuk (2900), and Erik Gudbrandson (2800) if Werenski is out
I’m not going to talk too much about this position because it all depends on Werenski. I’ll update my thoughts in discord. I like a wide variety of guys tonight. If I had to pick a couple it would be Sanderson, Heiskanen, Dobson, Karlsson, and Hamilton.
NHL Goalies
- It’s going to be really spread out tonight. Casey DeSmith (8000), Jeremy Swayman (7800), and Connor Hellebuyck (8400) probably get low double digits.
- You can play anybody here. I do like Filip Gustavsson (7500), Dustin Wolf (7400), and Spencer Knight (7000)
- Confirmed: Bobrovsky (FLA), Skinner (PIT), Swayman (BOS), Thompson (WSH), Knight (CHI), Hellebuyck (WPG), Wolf (CGY), Desmith (DAL), Ingram (EDM), Gustavsson (MIN), Dostal (ANH), Dobes (MTL)
- Unconfirmed: Markstrom (NJ), Vejmelka (UTA), Schmid (VGK), Lyon (BUF), Annunen (NSH), Greaves (CBJ), Ullmark (OTT), Vasilevsky (TB), Wedgewood (COL), Askarov (SJ)
Stacks and Theory
- The NHL DFS data says to stick to 4/3/1 and 3/3 stacks on slates of this size. It also favors mid-priced stacks over expensive ones.
- You’re going to want to be in the 50-90% range ownership-wise. That’s the sweet spot weather it’s the $333, $20, or $5. $333 you can go up to 100% – but that’s pushing it.
- Those things said – I’m probably staying away from CBJ1 unless I drop their ownership. That’s too much for this slate. Johnston/Robertson will also carry a ton of ownership, but I think you can make it work
- I like the mid-priced stacks at lower ownership in NSH1/2 and OTT1/2/3 quite a bit here. Suzuki/Caufield with 1-2 defensemen, ANH1, TB1, and the BUF Power Play with Norris and Doan come in behind them.
- I think it’s fine to play COL1. I’d rather play them than WPG1 or TB2. Norris/Doan, Jenner/Monahan, CHI3, OTT3, and BUF2 provide some strong value. Just be sure you really believe in the cheap line because you will need at least two goals from them on a slate this size.
- I think the TB/MIN game is an interesting one from a large field standpoint. There’s a lot of upside to both teams at low ownership
- The MTL/SJ game looks pretty overvalued – although I do like Suzuki/Caufield/Dobson a lot. It’s just going to be very slow and power play dependent.
- Lots of defensemen I like but the ownership picture is unclear until we know about Werenski. I am probably more bearish on Parekh in this spot. I like Balinskas and Orlov as pivots quite a bit. Jake Sanderson is pretty far underpriced tonight.
- It’s pretty wide open if you’re under on DAL1 and CBJ1. You’ll have to decide how wide to cast your net in MME tonight – because there’s a lot of stuff that projects pretty similarly.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I’m still out on CBJ1 and bearish on DAL1. It’s just a lot of ownership per the data from my lineup study. It’s pretty wide open – so go whatever direction you want. I do really like the idea of playing NSH and the goalie if Werenski is in though. Them, OTT, and Suzuki/Caufield would be my top 3 – followed by COL and whatever cheap line you like (I prefer Norris/Doan or CHI3).
In larger fields – I’m just out on CBJ1 and DAL1. I’m pretty bearish on WPG1 too. These expensive lines just don’t fare well on big slates and it’s not as great of a matchup as one might think. OTT and NSH are my two favorites followed by MTL, BUF, and the TB/MIN game. There’s just a ton of stuff to play though. I did not come close to talking about it all and this took two hours to write. Good luck tonight!
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 1 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm