Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 6-game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- This is somewhat of a chaotic slate with two chalk builds. The highest owned line here is COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Nichushkin) at 18%. They’re at home with the slate’s second highest total against Dallas. The most popular pairing with them will be CGY1 (Backlund/Coleman/Farabee) at 11%. The other chalk build is STL1 (Thomas/Snuggerud/Holloway) at 16% paired with either NJ2 (Hughes/Bratt/Brown), NJ1 (Meier/Hischier/Mercer), or NYR2 (Trocheck/Miller/Cuylle). I have each of those 3 between 11-13% owned. I definitely understand the Colorado chalk. We have MacKinnon with the highest raw projection by 5 points. The problem is that it’s an extremely limiting build with the salaries on this slate. COL1/Calgary combinations will have monster combinatorial ownership and be disproportionately popular due to the lack of other well-projected options in that price range. I’m a big Robert Thomas believer – and that line has played very well. I don’t love the ownership – but there’s a ton of options to pair with the Blues at lower ownership. My hunch is that NJ2 gets slightly more ownership than NYR2 or NJ1 – but any of those are just kind of fine. There are other lines I like going to tonight that aren’t as owned
- DAL1 also comes in at 15% – and they get their own column here. They get to match up against COL1 and shoot on some pretty shaky Colorado goaltending. I’m fine with the ownership on them and the 19.4K tag gives you more to work with. If you want to go to Colorado – that’s fine. I just think Dallas has the much better matchup tonight. You can also go to DAL2 or Hryckowian/Bunting/Harley as alternatives if you don’t want to spend the 19K.
- I don’t think there’s any way around it – ANH1 (Carlsson/Terry/Kreider) looks fantastic tonight. They check in at 9% owned for me and I’m fine with that. PHI1 has been pretty shaky all year and out line marketshares tool loves them. Lock n’ Load. ANH2 (Granlund/Killorn/Sennecke) is also pretty interesting at slightly lower ownership. Anaheim is going to split power play time down the middle with Gauthier and Carlsson on separate units – and this is my only issue with them. You just do not get any correlation between their two best players. I think for me it’s ANH1 or an ANH2 + Gauthier stack. Philadelphia is poor defensively and their goaltending has faltered. It’s a great spot for Anaheim.
- The PIT/CAR game is really interesting here. You can certainly go to CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis) as an alternative to COL1. CAR2 (Hall/Stankoven/Blake) is certainly a reasonable option at a much cheaper price. My interest lies on the Penguins side though. This game is going to be played at a very fast pace – and that makes it an intriguing spot to play the always talented PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell) at sub-5% ownership. Carolina definitely does a decent job suppressing offense – but their goaltending is only about league average. You can also go to PIT2 (Malkin/Chinakov/Novak) at 1% ownership if you need someone that low owned. They’ve been great all year.
- Yes – I am going to mention the Ottawa Senators here. OTT2 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig) and OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux) don’t project all that well for us – but not that much worse than other stuff. Absolutely nobody is playing them either. I’d be surprised if any Senator that isn’t Chabot gets 5% ownership tonight. People don’t like stacking against Thompson
- If you need a cheap line that’s contrarian – nobody is playing STL2 (Kyrou/Buchnevich/Neighbours) against the Calgary depth. If I’m going to a Flames line – It will probably be CGY2. They’re correlated on the power play (not worth much against STL but still) and will see better matchups. It’s a crapshoot with the Flames though.
In smaller fields – you can go to COL1 if you want. The price is just steep and I would not want to eat the high combinatorial ownership on COL1/Calgary. I prefer going to the Dallas side or to some sort of ANH/STL combination.
In large fields, I love the idea of playing Ottawa or Pittsburgh. Neither of them are getting much ownership at all. Anaheim also looks great and like a strong candidate for larger stacks. I think fading Calgary makes a ton of sense. There are other cheap value lines to play tonight. You can do what you want with the DAL/COL game. It’s going to have a bunch of concentrated ownership and some of the most popular one-offs. Fading it is certainly a viable strategy
NHL Defense
- Cale Makar (7300) and Jake Trouba (4600) are the chalk defensemen at 20% each. Adam Fox (5300), John Carlson (4800), and Dougie Hamilton (5100) are between 14-16% each. I’m fine with any of these guys as they all seem a bit too cheap. Adam Fox is especially underpriced for a guy facing a team that traditionally gives it up to blue liners.
- I like Miro Heiskanen (5700) and Thomas Harley (4500) for Dallas quite a bit here at 8-10% each. Erik Karlsson (4800) also piques my interest.
- Alexander Nikishin (3400) and Philip Broberg (4400) are two guys running their respective power plays at cheap prices
- K’Andre Miller (3200), Josh Manson (2900), Tyler Kleven (2800), Jordan Spence (2800), Oli Maatta (2500), Hunter Brzustewicz (2500), and Zayne Parekh (3000) are all decent plays on the lower end
The chalky guys seem fine here – but there are definitely some strong values on the cheap end tonight.
NHL Goalies
- Joel Hofer (8000) and Jonathan Quick (7500) are between 17-20% each. Logan Thompson (7600) comes in at 12%
- This is a pretty high ceiling spot for Stu Skinner (7000). He’s live for 40 saves, 6 goals allowed, or maybe both. You can say the same for Jake Oettinger (7200)
- Lukas Dostal (8300) seems fine.
- Confirmed: Andersen (CAR), Skinner (PIT), Ullmark (OTT), Thompson (WSH), Hofer (STL), Cooley (CGY), Wedgewood (COL), Oettinger (DAL), Dostal (ANH)
- Unconfirmed: Markstrom (NJ), Quick (NYR), Vladar (PHI)
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk builds are likely to be COL1/CGY1 and STL1/NJ1, NJ2, or NYR2. Colorado’s price is a severely limiting factor
- Dallas is also popular – but gives you a lot more build flexibility
- Anaheim 1 is the top play on my board by a lot. ANH2 also looks very strong.
- PIT1, OTT1, and OTT2 are three super contrarian stacks with no ownership.
- It’s a good night for two defensemen from the same team once again. That’s always a strong move on these mid-sized slates.
- From an MME standpoint I think fading the DAL/COL game is a reasonable way to go. The pieces are all expensive. If it’s 3-2 then everybody who played the expensive skaters there is likely cooked.
- Getting away from Calgary in COL1 builds is almost mandatory. The combunatorial ownership will be incredibly high
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think DAL1 is pretty sharp. COL1 is fine if you don’t play Calgary – but I think there’s merit to playing ANH/STL or ANH/PIT as well.
In larger fields – I do think it makes sense to fade the DAL/COL game. There are plenty of other teams with strong totals and good game environments tonight. There’s little sense in getting too bound to super expensive skaters that carry a bunch of ownership. I love PIT1, Ottawa, and Anaheim in these types of events tonight.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm