Welcome to another 5-game slate of NHL DFS. Let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

*Anze Kopitar, Trevor Moore, and Joel Armia are all Questionable for tonight. Corey Perry is out. The Kings recalled two guys from the AHL (Taylor Ward and Andre Lee). I would guess at least two of those three are out. I will keep an eye on this. I am leaving them in as placeholders because I doubt we see new lines at morning skate.

NHL DFS Lines

 

• This is a pretty straight-forward slate tonight. Our clear chalk is LAK1 (Kopitar/Kempe/Laferriere) against the Sharks at 20% ownership. The Kings seem to have finally found line combinations that generate offense and I have no problem playing them tonight. They’re really owned, but I prefer them to the other high owned lines. Those lines are UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse) and MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Texier) at 17% each. Suzuki and Caufield continue to play a ton – and it’s definitely a high-event spot against Calgary. Those two guys are standout plays on this slate. I think I’d just roll in Slafkovsky (5300) before I played Texier. He makes it easy to make Lane Hutson (5500) or Noah Dobson (5600) the 4th man in the stack. UTA1 is definitely priced down and well projected, but it’s really not a great spot against a legitimately excellent defensive team at even strength. They may have shaky goaltending, but they’re not surrendering much shot volume – not does UTA generate many power plays. I’m pretty comfortable fading Utah in what seems to be a slower, defensive-oriented game environment.
• The popular cheap lines tonight are both from the Kings – LAK2 (Byfield/Foegele/Armia) and LAK3 (Turcotte/Fiala/Kuzmenko). They both look to be around 10% owned. SJ1 (Celebrini/Eklund/Chernyshov), DAL2 (Hintz/Robertson/Bourque), DAL1 (Johnston/Rantanen/Duchene), and UTA2 (Hayton/Peterka/Guenther) all look 12-14% owned as well.
• There are a few spots to target tonight outside of the obvious ones. I think the first one is the Flames. We all know about Montreal’s persistent struggles with penalties and goaltending. The Flames also continue to generate high danger chances at an extremely high rate and be at the top of the league in shots on net. The scoring is a bit spread out and there are power play guys on 3 lines – but I do like the Flames Power Play and larger Flames stacks tonight. The high shot volume and possibility for 4-6 power play opportunities makes Calgary a strong play on a slate without a 6.5 total game.
• Another interesting spot to target tonight is Washington. They are getting beat up after putting Protas and Wilson on IR, but I am intrigued by the two defensemen on the power play against this Dallas PK that has been getting run over for a month now. I’m probably inclined to go with WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier) or the Power Play here – but it’s a viable route to go in large fields at sub-10% ownership
• I do not really like this game – but I think it’s worth mentioning OTT2 (Cozens/Batherson/Tkachuk) for sure. They will probably be sub-5% owned, our model projects them okay, and the Utah Goaltending hasn’t exactly been awesome this year. I suppose you could also go with OTT1 (Stuetzle/Giroux/Zetterlund), but I’m less enthusiastic. It’s definitely a large field GPP spot to attack.
• It’s a 5-game slate – so I will mention that Chicago projects well industry-wide from a value standpoint – especially CHI2 (Donato/Mikheyev/Dickinson). However, the Blues have gone back to not taking penalties now that they have guys like Kyrou and Snuggerud back in the lineup. They seem fine, but I prefer going to STL1 (Thomas/Kyrou/Neighbours) or STL2 (Schenn/Buchnevich/Snuggerud). They both seem like reasonable plays at low ownership.

In smaller fields – I could see getting away from the Kings. There’s a lot of uncertainty here – so it’s a good opportunity to do something different. I think the Calgary power play, Montreal power play, and the Washington power play are all strong options to accomplish this. I don’t hate just playing SJ1 or SJ2 either. I think they are very live to win this game without Kopitar, Armia, and Perry.

In larger fields, I’m pretty comfortable fading the Kings. It took them forever to find line combinations that worked – and now they’re going back to ones that didn’t or to new ones. I’m ok fading Utah, but I can see playing them too. I really like a larger Calgary or St. Louis stack on this slate as a contrarian way to go. I think WSH1/PP and OTT2 also look pretty strong. I’m firmly against most of the chalk on this slate – so take that for what it’s worth.

 

NHL Defense

 

• I definitely disagree with most of the industry on ownership here. I suspect that Lane Hutson (5500) is the chalk here at 22-25% with Jacob Chycrun (7000) and Jake Sanderson (6400) both at 17-20%. Drew Doughty (4100), Noah Dobson (5600), and Brandt Clarke (4100) all look 12-15%
• I like Rasmus Andersson (5800) a fair amount here. I will just continue to play Thomas Chabot (4900) at these ridiculous prices. He should be 5.7-6K. John Carlson (5400), Justin Faulk (4600), Artyom Levshunov (3500), and Colton Parayko (3700) seem fine.
• Cam Fowler (2800) and Dmitry Orlov (3000) are two crazy-cheap power play guys. I do not mind Philip Broberg (3200), Matt Roy (3000), Timothy Liljegren (3000), Yan Kuznetsov (2800)

Synopsis: My ownership take here is quite different than the Industry. I’m ok with Hutson, but he should not be a priority. He’s just not much of a volume shooter – so he makes less sense outside of a MTL stack. Chycrun seems overpriced, but I’m totally fine with Carlson on the same team at a cheaper price. Rasmus Andersson looks fine too. Plenty of cheap guys to pick from. Dmitry Orlov, Cam Fowler, and Yan Kuznetsov are my favorites.

NHL Goalies

 

• Jacob Fowler (8200) looks like the chalk to me at 22%. Darcy Kuemper (8400) and Spencer Knight (7400) probably get 17% each. I have Yaroslav Askarov (7000) at 12%  as well.
• I do not mind Askarov if you’re not playing Kings. I also like Dustin Wolf (7200) as a road dog against Montreal. He may end up more owned than I think though – because he’s really good. Logan Thompson (7600) is probably my favorite though.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• You’ll need to make a decision how to handle the Kings and Utah. I’m actually ok with fading both considering the Kings injuries and OTT being a solid defensive team.
• I definitely like the Calgary Power Play as a strong option tonight. CGY2 would probably be my favorite even strength line. Larger stacks of them look strong
• Same goes for STL – although they have the split power plays. I wouldn’t be afraid to just roster their best players and do a Thomas/Neighbours/Kyrou/Snuggerud/Faulk stack or something.
• I think going to SJ1 (Celebrini/Eklund/Chernyshov) or SJ2 (Wennberg/Toffoli/Regenda) makes a lot of sense here. Celebrini will have a bunch of ownership – but nobody else will.
• Washington is also an interesting spot to attack against this scuffling Dallas team. I like Carlson/Chycrun and Chycrun/Roy lineups quite a bit per usual. I would not ignore Sourdif and McMichael either. They are both eminently playable in a larger stack
• I definitely like the Flames and Blues defensemen – along with Thomas Chabot and Dmitry Orlov – quite a bit

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I think it’s a strong night to get different and play a Calgary, San Jose, or St. Louis. The chalk is all pretty shaky tonight, but MTL1 would be my choice among the owned lines. Calgary would be my favorite. Stick to the underpriced defensemen in Carlson, Orlov, Fowler, Chabot, and Levshunov here. You don’t really need to pay for the 6500-7K guys tonight.

In larger fields, I like the same 3 teams – but rolling WSH and OTT. I think you still fade the Kings unless you want to play 5 of them with multiple non-PP guys or the full 6-man. Utah seems fine, but pretty underwhelming. I do not mind MTL though. Mix in Demidov/Slafkovsky/Hutson stacks as well. OTT2 and WSH1 would be my choices from the other two teams.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm