Welcome to another big 10 game slate of NHL DFS. It looks like we’re going to have a high-scoring slate on tap tonight. Let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

*Marchment has been announced out for CBJ. I’m guessing they go back to Voronkov – as he’s on the 3rd line – but I am not sure. I will list him as a placeholder.

NHL DFS Lines

 

• So we have some pretty clear chalk for such a large slate. The highest owned line on the slate will be SJ1 (Celebrini/Eklund/Chernyshov) at 20%. They are in a strong spot against a Columbus team that has struggled all year. We project them as a strong value, but about 20% lower than the industry as a whole. We are also about 20% lower in projection than the field on the second chalk line – NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista). I have them around 17%. They are facing an Oilers team that has started committing a lot of penalties and definitely has shaky goaltending. I do not have a problem with either of these lines – but playing them together is a lot of chalk.
• I have two other lines over 10% – CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Voronkov*) and BUF1 (Thompson/Doan/Krebs). It is Nedeljkovic for SJ rather than Askarov – so I definitely do not mind going to Columbus here – especially with Werenski being less than chalk. It’s not like the Sharks have been good defensively. I’m not as big a fan of BUF1 though. They project well and it’s not a bad spot – I just wish it were someone else up there besides Krebs. I don’t hate just playing Thompson/Doan/Dahlin – but that’s just adding a 15% owned defensemen for even more ownership. If I’m going to BUF I prefer either a Thompson/Doan/Dahlin/Samuelsson 4-man, a larger BUF Power Play stack, or going to BUF2 (Norris/Tuch/Zucker). We actually have them projected better than BUF1. Our models – the projections and matchups tool – like BUF quite a bit tonight and I agree. These two spots are just as viable as SJ at 10-12% ownership each as opposed to 20% San Jose.
• So there are a few interesting games tonight to discuss – and NSH/EDM is definitely one of them. My hunch is they get around 8% ownership – but I definitely do not mind going to EDM1 or EDM Power Play here. Edmonton has started to draw penalties at an elite rate over the last month – and Nashville commits plenty of them. The Preds PK has been a strength all year – but we’ve got a huge sample that tells us the EDM Power Play is elite. I don’t really care what their numbers are this year – if you’re going to give the EDM Power Play 5 chances you are playing with fire. You can go to McDavid or Draisaitl as a one-off – but I suspect Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins are much less popular. It’s for the $5 or Mini-Max MME crowd only – but I do kinda like Henrique/Roslovic as a two-man. You can roll Nurse in there to make it a 3-man as well. These Svechkov/Wood lines (NSH3) have been absolutely obliterated by everyone all year and at least those two guys have proven they can score in the NHL.
• The other game I think is worth discussing is ANH/PHI. This game has several well-projected lines in our model with varying degrees of ownership – but nothing crazy owned. I really like PHI1 (Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny) as a pivot away from NSH1 at about half the ownership. PHI2 (Couturier/Tippett/Barkey) and PHI3 (Cates/Brink/Michkov) also project pretty well at very cheap prices. Michkov is a GTD though – so keep an eye on that. Both ANA1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Terry) and ANH2 (McTavish/Gauthier/Sennecke) project well in our model – which is a Dan Vladar believer overall. That tells you something. I do not mind this as a lower owned spot at all. PHI1 is the highest owned here at 7-8% – so I’m not concerned about ownership at all.
• There are definitely other cheap lines to play besides PHI2/3. CBJ2 (Jenner/Coyle/Oliver) and SJ2 (Wennberg/Toffoli/Regenta) are the chalky ones at around 10%. PHI aside – I do not mind going to FLA3 (Rodrigues/Samoskevich/Greer) or CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) at all. I prefer the latter, but the price points are distinctly different.
• I do think this TOR/FLA game is pretty interesting. FLA commits plenty of penalties – so I do not mind a Leafs power play stack here. I don’t really want to play TOR1 against the defensive stalwart that is FLA1 though. Additionally, all 3 of the FLA top lines are in play. FLA2 (Bennett/Marchand/Verhaege), FLA1 (Lundell/Reinhart/Luostarainen), and the FLA Power Play have all been excellent this year. Take your pick.
• There are a ton of teams I have not mentioned. This is very much a choose your own adventure slate outside of the chalk lines. If you want to play COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Olofsson) that’s fine. I expect them to be as owned as EDM – or even higher – though. Everybody loves playing COL and Olofsson is underpriced. They are not a bad play at all. WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo) have been costing me money all year – but Carter Hart has been absolutely abysmal. If Hart is in there I definitely like WPG1. I’m not worried about any of the Vegas lines defensively.

In smaller fields – You can definitely go to SJ, NSH, BUF, and/or CBJ. I’m probably not playing NSH and SJ together though. BUF1 is definitely last on that list for me. I outright prefer BUF2. I do think COL1 is a reasonable pivot off SJ if you really want to, but it seems like a reach. I’d rather play someone like FLA2 at that price.

In larger fields, I think you want to decide how to handle the CBJ/SJ game. Our models have it with a total around 8 – so it’s an outstanding spot. I think I prefer the CBJ side at slightly lower ownership. Celebrini is incredible – but he’s also $9400 now rather than 8K. I’m not sure I want to eat 22-25% on him when I can get McDavid for only $600 more at 1/3 the ownership. I definitely like the EDM side of that game in larger fields. I think larger BUF, CBJ, and PHI stacks definitely show some promise. Investing in the ANH/PHI game definitely makes sense to me from a leverage standpoint. It also has a 6.5 total and projects well in our models. PHI2 (Couturier/Barkey/Tippett) have been awesome together. They are my favorite cheap line of the night.

 

NHL Defense

 

• The popular guys here are likely to be Rasmus Dahlin (6300), Evan Bouchard (7000), Filip Hronek (3800), and Dmitry Orlov (3100). I expect all of them except Hronek to be 12-15% in large field and 17-20% in smaller fields. Hronek probably comes in at 10%/12% respectively.
• If you want some cheap guys. Rasmus Ristolainen (3000) and Brady Skjei (3200) would be my favorites. Aaron Ekblad (4500) and Cam York (3600) are reasonably priced power play guys
• Morgan Reilly (4700) and Shayne Gostisbehere (4800) also look like really strong plays. Josh Morrissey (5500) is priced down and a strong play as well.
• Zach Werenski (8800) has a crazy price, but that makes me want to play him even more here. Cale Makar (8000) also looks totally fine, but not as good as Werenski.
• I think you can definitely go the double defense route again tonight. Werenski/Provorov, Bouchard/Ekholm, and Dahlin/Samuelsson all look like reasonable pairings.

Synopsis: I don’t mind the chalk guys. Orlov is simply underpriced for his role and an outstanding play. Skjei and Ristolainen also look strong. I love Werenski, Gostisbehere, Reilly, and Ekblad as well.

NHL Goalies

 

• Jeremy Swayman (7300) looks like the clear chalk to me at 15-17%. I suspect people go to Thatcher Demko (7100) and Ilya Sorokin (7500) as well.
• Jet Greaves (7900) makes sense. Maybe San Jose looks forward to the Kings game tomorrow and craps the bed here. I’m not playing Connor Hellebuyck (7600) right now, but I wouldn’t begrudge anyone taking a chance. He should definitely be in an MME pool. Jake Oettinger (7400) is my favorite though. The shot volume and pace of CAR give him a strong ceiling.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• SJ1/NSH1 looks like the chalk to me at 20 and 17% respectively. CBJ1 and BUF1 will garner about 12% each. Columbus is probably my favorite of the 4. Werenski is just too low owned.
• I really like either paying up for one of EDM1/COL1/FLA2 or targeting the ANH/PHI game. Our projections really like that one.
• PHI1, PHI2, and ANH1 are probably my favorite lines from that game
• Our projections like BUF2 over BUF1 – and I agree. Larger BUF stacks are definitely in play and don’t be afraid to play Alex Tuch with some power plays guys. He’s one of their 3 best players.
• TOR Power Play, WPG1, and CAR2 look like strong contrarian spots to target.
• The double defense stacks I listed above look strong tonight
• NSH/EDM definitely profiles as a game with plenty of power play opportunities
• I definitely like TOR/FLA as a game that ends up sneaky high-scoring as well
• Orlov is just underpriced. Werenski is overpriced, but he’s still Werenski and can definitely get 30 against the penalty-happy Sharks.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I do like the CBJ/SJ game – but I prefer the CBJ side. Celebrini is getting expensive. He projects well, but our model is a bit under the industry on the Sharks. I don’t mind NSH or BUF – but I’m not playing SJ and NSH together regardless of format.

In larger fields, I love both Werenski and the ANH/PHI game. I think targeting both makes sense. You’ll have to decide how to handle the CBJ/SJ game. I’d encourage everyone to have a concrete strategy if you’re going to MME – because it’s an outstanding spot. There’s plenty of pivots though. CAR2 and PHI2 look strong on the cheap end to pair with COL1, EDM1, or SJ1. I do not mind targeting the TOR/FLA game either.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm