Welcome to Friday’s 8 game slate of NHL DFS. This looks very straight forward – so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 11 am ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*There will be multiple updates in discord
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
*Anthony Cirelli are questionable. Mikko Rantanen skated this morning and seems extremely likely to play. I am assuming he plays tonight.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk tonight is very clear to me. It is going to be COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Olofsson) paired with ANH1 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn). I expect COL1 to garner 22% ownership and ANH1 to get 18%. COL is in a strong spot against this below average PHI team – and seems likely to bounce back from a terrible perfomance last time out. Anaheim is also in a strong spot at home against a SEA team whose goaltending has been weak all year. The banged-up Ducks have been relying heavily on Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn due to a rash of injuries and I see little reason for that to change here. Both of these lines are clearly underpriced tonight. I will point out that Anaheim has lost a ton of firepower with all these injuries. ANH1 is cheap, but these guys are also just not that good. They have no business on an NHL first line.
- The second chalk build tonight will be SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Graf) and DAL1 (Hintz/Robertson/Bourque). For reasons passing understanding – like many things the Sharks do – Chernyshov was sent back to the AHL despite SJ’s first line finally creating a ton of opportunities with him up there. Their numbers are poor with Graf up there (2.35 xG and 49 shot attempts per 60) compared to Chernyshov (a whopping 4.97 xG and 65 shot attempts per 60). Celebrini is good enough to make anyone successful though – so that is more nit-picking than anything. We can afford to do that on this slate though. Dallas was bad last night, but Hintz/Robertson/Bourque have been great this year (3.31 xG and 72 shot attempts/60). They are in an elite spot against a St. Louis team that has really struggled defensively and in net. Mikko Rantanen skated this morning and looks very likely to return. DAL2 (Johnston/Rantanen/Steel) is also in play and slightly lower owned than DAL1 I have SJ1 at 17%, DAL1 at 12%, and DAL2 at 10%. I’m higher on Dallas with Rantanen back, but definitely not inclined to be above the field.
- The semi-popular pivot away from COL1 will be TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel) at 12%. Cirelli is questionable, but Cooper did not seem too concerned about him the other night. They are facing a penalty-prone Chicago team on a B2B starting the dreadful Arvid Soderblom. This line has absolutely run the league over in a 190 minute sample to the tune of an eye-popping 4.5 xGoals and 82 shot attempts per 60. That’s almost a full expected goal better than COL1. Jason Dickinson is out for CHI – leaving them without their most valuable defensive player – and every line with Bedard or Nazar at center has been dreadful defensively this year. Tampa is also near the top of the league in penalties drawn – which should give them ample opportunities with the man advantage. This is a clear blow-up spot for TB1 at lower ownership than the public darling that is COL1. However, If Cirelli is out I am much less interested in TB1
- The semi-popular pivots on the cheaper end will be SJ2 (Wennberg/Eklund/Toffoli), and SEA1 (Beniers/McCann/Eberle) at 9-12% each. You can fit them easily with COL1. I do not have a problem with either SJ2 or SEA1 – but I prefer SEA1 simply because it is a better power play spot and they look lower owned to me. I have SJ2 at 14%, and SEA1 at 10%.
- Projections are extremely high on San Jose industry-wide tonight. If you want to play a larger 5 or 6-man Sharks stack I have no issue with it. Even SJ3 (Misa/Regenda/Gaudette) projects well for dirt cheap and can be played on top of SJ1. I’d stay away from 5-man power play combinations though. They will carry a lot of ownership and it’s just not a great power play spot.
- People are going to play Calgary. CGY1 (Kadri/Gridin/Zary), CGY2 (Backlund/Coranato/Sharangovich), and CGY3 (Frost/Farabee/Pospisil) all project fairly well industry-wide at cheap prices. I’ll just pass. All of these lines are below average to piss poor. If I’m going anywhere it’s probably Backlund/Coranato/Sharangovich, but they’re down my list a ways.
- It looks like NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Meier) is going to catch about 10% ownership against this dreadful Vancouver team. I have no issue if you want to go here, but I think there are other spots I’d rather go on this slate than a banged-up Jack Hughes. I do love a Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec 3-man as a cheap filler with TB1 or COL1 + Makar though. Those guys all project really well.
- There are definitely some solid large field pivots at lower ownership tonight as well. I definitely think you can go to some sort of Rangers power play combination – or just NYR1 (Trocheck/Panarin/Lafreniere) at very low ownership. Panarin is very expensive, but he’s hard to fade as such an integral part of their offense. The Sharks continue to commit plenty of penalties and have – for reasons passing understanding – promoted gargoyle-on-skates John Klingberg to first pairing. I’m just completely flummoxed by this tomfoolery.
- If you want to play SJ1/PP or DAL1 – I do think PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Zegras) is a very interesting large field play tonight. I’ll say it again like I do seemingly every slate – COL1 is not good defensively and this is especially true with a liability like Victor Olofsson up there. The COL goaltending does not scare me either. PHI1 continues to chug along posting an under-the-radar 3 xGoals and 60 shot attempts per 60. I do not mind them at all here at a 16K price tag and 1% ownership in large field GPPs. They’ve simply been good all year. If you want a cheaper option, a Michkov/Seeler 2-man also projects pretty well.
- My favorite line on the cheap end – besides the super-cheap SJ3 and Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec combo – is definitely STL2 (Buchnevich/Kyrou/Neighbours). They project pretty well industry-wide, are fully correlated on the power play, and are facing a Dallas team that – despite it’s reputation – has not been elite defensively or in net this year. The Blues aren’t very good, but a line that is fully correlated on the power play at 11.5K (15.6 if you add Faulk) definitely piques my interest at 4-5% ownership. You can make a similar argument for TOR2 (Tavares/Kneis/Maccelli), but they’re more expensive and in a worse spot. I suspect SEA3 (Wright/Kakko/Schwartz) flies way below the radar as well. That line should theoretically be pretty good.
- Speaking of the VGK/TOR game – I think you can definitely look here in large fields as well. VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) will carry zero ownership on a road B2B against this Leafs team that has struggled on the back end all year. A Marner/Dorofeyev/Hanifin combination is also in play. I do not mind playing Marner in his return to Toronto in the least. I’m not playing Toronto, but you could go to that side. I’ll never tell anyone they shouldn’t play low owned Matthews and I’ve been pretty vocal all year about Vegas’ issues in net and on the Penalty Kill. TOR2 (Tavares/Kneis/Maccelli) is also cheap and fully correlated on the Power Play at zero ownership. This spot falls behind the Rangers, but is on par with the Flyers for me.
- You can also go to COL2 (Nelson/Nichuhkin/Lehkonen) at zero ownership in large field GPPs
In smaller fields – It’s hard to suggest getting away from COL1 or TB1. Take your pick. Tampa is in the better spot due to the fact that Chicago just has zero defensive acumen – while PHI has had some success at just crowding the net to limit the opposition’s scoring chances. COL is $1400 cheaper though – and that’s not nothing. COL/ANH is probably too chalky – but I definitely like COL1/SEA1 or COL1/STL1. TB1/SJ3, TB1/Gritsyuk/Glass/Nemec, or just a larger TB stack with TB1/TB3 all make sense as well. You could play a larger SJ stack as well, but I’m less keen on that.
In larger fields, I really do like TB1. They have completely rolled everyone all year. SJ3, SEA3, STL2, and Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec are also standout values to me. There’s definitely some merit to NJ1, but I prefer the lower owned VGK1 or NYR1/PP. I also really like SEA1 and/or a SEA Power Play stack. You could definitely play SEA1 with two of Dunn/Montour/Larsson as well. It’s justified by projections. I definitely think PHI1 is a real strong play in large fields though. They’ve just been really good all year and make a great pairing with the higher owned, well-projected Sharks.
NHL Defense
- Thomas Harley (4900) looks like the highest owned defensemen at around 20% – despite being hot garbage all year. Cale Makar (8200) comes in at 15%. Brandon Montour (5400), Sam Malinski (4200), Miro Heiskanen (6300) and Dougie Hamilton (4300) come in around 10-12%
- I definitely like Darren Raddysh (6800) tonight – regardless of weather you play a Tampa stack or not. If you want a cheaper TB defensemen there’s D’Astous (3000) and Crozier (2600) at punt-level prices with ok point/$ projections. There’s better cheap options though.
- Shea Theodore (5300) should play a huge pile of minutes if suspected Canadian Sleeper Agent Rasmus Andersson (5500) does not play. I’m so glad ICE is on top of the important stuff. Noah Hanifin (4700) seems fine there as well.
- It’s a strong spot for New Jersey – so I definitely do not mind either Dougie Hamilton (4300) or Simon Nemec (3000). They are both underpriced. The same goes for the never-fun-to-play Justin Faulk (4100).
- Vince Dunn (5100) is my favorite defensemen on the slate outside of Hamilton/Nemec. you can never go wrong with the PP guy against the Ducks. Jackson LaCombe (5000) seems fine on the other side of Dunn.
- You can definitely go to Hamilton/Nemec or Dunn/Montour combos.
- You can certainly go to John Klingberg (3900). He’s fine. Same goes for Jake Chycrun (6800). They are probably my least favorite defensemen with double digit ownership though.
- There’s plenty of guys below 4K that I like tonight. Cam York (3900) and Travis Sanheim (3700) should both play mid-to-low 20s minutes and get hit by plenty of Colorado shots. Jamie Drysdale (3300) is a cheap PP guy for PHI. Filip Hronek (3600), Zeev Buium (3100) seem fine against a New Jersey team that has hemorrhaged production to defensemen for years. Tom Willander’s minutes are all over the place, but he was a top-15 pick a couple years ago, he’s the stone minimum, and there’s no reason for the moribund Canucks to not play him.
Synopsis : It’s a pretty deep slate for defensemen. I really like Montour, Raddysh, and Hamilton on the chalky side. Vince Dunn, Simon Nemec, Filip Hronek, and any of the 3 PHI guys I mentioned also seem fine. I would not feel bound to the chalk, but Hamilton/Montour would be my choice as a chalk combo. I prefer Hamilton/Dunn though.
NHL Goalies
- I have Logan Thompson (7800) and Lukas Dostal (7600) as the chalk at 15% each.
- I do not mind whomever starts for the Kraken. Chalk Thompson is probably fine.
- Whomever starts for PHI (7100) would be the sicko play of the slate. Whomever the goalie is for St. Louis (7200) also seems ok as a cheap option. Who knows how healthy Rantanen is.
- Confirmed: Anthony Stolarz (TOR), Blackwood (COL)
- Unconfirmed: Everyone Else
NHL Stacks and Theory
- COL1 is the clear chalk and ANH2 is the clear pairing. DAL1 or DAL2 and SJ1 is the other chalk build.
- I do not mind going to TB1 at all in any field size here. STL2, SJ3, and the Glass/Gritsyuk/Hamilton pairing all seem like strong values on the very cheap end.
- SJ1 and SJ2 will both garner substantial ownership. I’m pretty bearish on SJ1 here just because I do not love the mid-tier lines. However, I do not mind larger San Jose stacks. All 3 of their lines are in play.
- I prefer Seattle to Anaheim. I’m pretty bearish on Anaheim and Luke-Warm on Dallas. Anaheim projects really well, but these just aren’t first line NHL players.
- There are some very sharp large field plays tonight. NYR1, PHI1, STL2, and the Vegas/Toronto game are all sharp options.
- It’s a deep defense pool tonight. Hamilton, Nemec, Dunn, Montour, and the PHI guys all look strong. Play who you like though.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – It’s COL1 or TB1 for me. I definitely prefer SEA1 or STL2 to ANH1 or SJ2 though. There’s plenty of cheap defensemen tonight. Go to Makar if you want, but I’m not sure it’s that great a spot for him considering the Flyers penchant for crowding the net.
In larger fields – TB1 looks underowned. I Iove both STL2 and the Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec 3-man. NYR1/PP, COL2, and PHI1 all look like very sharp plays at low ownership as well. A TB1/TB3 or SJ overstack is firmly in play. A SEA Power Play stack, SEA3, or TOR2 look solid as well. There’s just a lot on the super cheap end I like tonight – so TB1, NYR PP, and probably some COL PP would be my priorities. I’m ok being under on Dallas and Anaheim here.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm