Welcome to Tuesday’s 8 game slate of NHL DFS. It’s a pretty straight forward slate – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 12 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

*There will be a 4 pm ET update in discord

 

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• There are two clear chalk lines tonight – and they will lead to two completely different builds. I have TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel) at 25% and NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista) at 22%. Tampa is in an elite spot against San Jose tonight despite a terrible projected game pace. Their top line should see plenty of minutes and Kucherov/Hagel should see plenty of power play time against the always penalty-prone Sharks. Our model does not like the spot for NSH quite as much, but it still grades out really well. They’re underpriced at 15.3 facing a BUF team that – while improved – is still extremely vulnerable defensively. We have TB with  the highest projected total of the night by almost a full goal – so it’s really hard to argue with TB1 at anything short of the highest ownership by a lot. I do not have a problem with either of these lines as chalk though.
• We have a wide variety of lines at cheap prices that project well tonight. I would guess that NSH2 (Haula/Stamkos/Bunting) ends up the most popular – but only around 10%. LAK2 (Byfield/Foegele/Armia), LAK3 (Turcotte/Fiala/Kuzmenko), and CBJ2 (Monahan/Jenner/Johnson) seem likely to all get 7-8% as well. I do not expect any cheap line to really dominate ownership. You can’t really go wrong with any of these lines tonight.
• MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) looks to be about 15% owned once again. They’re facing the always penalty-happy Canadiens and their shaky goaltenders. I’m really not too worried about their ownership here – or the B2B. This line – and Power Play – have been absolutely running people over after the Kaprizov/Zuccarello pairing ran bad on shooting percentage for most of the year. MTL1 is a good defensive line, but that does not really concern me here – as I think they might come in lower owned than the number I have now due to the B2B. You can also play them with NSH1 due to a glut of value at defense that we will get to later. I do not mind the other side of this game either. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Dach) is in a fine spot despite MIN’s penchant for avoiding penalties and strong goaltending. Their reasonable price, consistent performance, and well-projected defensemen make them a strong contrarian option here
• There’s definitely a certain irony to the fact that the EDM Power Play has really started shredding with Leon Draisaitl taking a leave of absence. yeah it’s just noise – but amusing nonetheless. EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Podkolzin) is another strong option tonight. Podkolzin is a great fit along side McDavid/Hyman due to his ability to get out ahead of the play, forecheck, and fight for the puck in the corner. This really isn’t something Nugent-Hopkins brings to the table – as great as he is on EDM1. They should come in at around 10-12% ownership at home against this New Jersey team that has struggled defensively and in net all year. Oh – and Podkolzin is now on the power play instead of Walman. They are a strong alternative to TB1 tonight and viable in all formats. The New Jersey side of this game projects ok for us as well, but they aren’t my first choice tonight. However, I definitely like a Glass/Gritsyuk pairing from NJ3 with or without Simon Nemec. A Yurov/Tarasenko pairing from MIN would also accomplish this. They project extremely well and allow you to get in some of the blatantly mispriced players with your TB or EDM stack (we will get to those players in a bit)
• There are two other teams to discuss here, and the first one is Dallas. DAL1 (Hintz/Robertson/Bourque) and DAL2 (Johnston/Rantanen/Hryckowian) both come in at solid 16.8/16.9 prices and are in an elite power play matchup against Boston. I would definitely put a DAL Power Play stack up there with EDM1 and TB1 tonight as strong plays on the top end. Roope Hintz (5300), Jason Robertson (8200), Mikko Rantanen (7300), and Wyatt Johnston (6700) are all priced down $500-800 from where we’ve seen them recently and are firmly in consideration for all fields. I’d probably go Hintz/Robertson/Rantanen, but use whatever combination you prefer. You can play Miro Heiskanen or not, it’s up to you. He is not discounted.
• The last team to discuss here is Ottawa. They are in a strong spot against a Columbus team that is – for some reason – running Elvis Merzlikins out there every night instead of Greaves. We have OTT1 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig)and OTT2 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Zetterlund) as solid values at their prices of around 16K each. I prefer OTT1 simply due to the fact that Stuetzle isn’t as productive away from Tkachuk. You can make it a power play stack, but Columbus just doesn’t take many penalties. I like this spot – as does out model and matchups tool – but it falls behind TB/DAL/EDM for me. It’s in the MIN/MTL/NSH tier for me – and that isn’t a bad tier. OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio) also seems fine as a cheap line to pair with your high-end stack.
• The Kings have 3 lines that project well industry-wide. I certainly get playing them, but they seem like the team I would get under the field on. The scoring is super spread out and there are lots of other options.
• The large field play of the night for me is probably the BUF Power Play. NSH commits plenty of penalties – and their PK has been solid all year – but this BUF unit is elite and has been rolling even without Norris. You can certainly do something like Thompson/Tuch/Doan/Ostlund/Dahlin and get plenty of exposure to various BUF combinations at a reasonable price. MTL1 or a MTL Power Play stack also looks like a solid large field play.
• There are a few players on this slate that are simply underpriced and make very strong one-offs. Will Smith (4300) is probably the most egregious of them. I do not know what DK is doing there with that price. Drake Batherson (5500), Roope Hintz (5300), Steven Stamkos (5000), Arseny Gritsyuk (3000), Noah Ostlund (2600), and Timo Meier (5800) are a few of the other front-line guys that are simply underpriced by $500 or more. It’s a solid night to take advantage of these pricing blunders

In smaller fields – it’s probably between TB, DAL, EDM, and maybe MIN for me. There’s a ton of value in that 10-12K tier tonight. I really like the Glass/Gritsyuk pairing if you want to pay up for a defensemen – but that isn’t necessary tonight (more on that shortly). NSH2 seems fine, but I prefer the always fantastic CBJ2 at likely half the ownership. I am not worried about OTT defensively outside of the death matchup that is OTT3. I think you can go NSH1/DAL1 or something like that too, but I am less enthusiastic about it.

In larger fields, there’s a wide variety of options tonight. You can definitely go to TB overstacks of TB1/TB3 or just TB Power Play. DAL and EDM are both in similarly strong spots, but they do not have the total TB does per our tools. Just be sure to roll in someone off the power play like Gourde or Cirelli. The 5-man power play stack will be very popular. Ottawa looks like a strong stacking partner with a mid-tier line like NSH1, DAL1, or DAL2 as well. Do not be afraid to spend the bulk of your salary on F/C tonight. There’s plenty of value at defense. BUF looks like they have some sneaky upside at lower ownership tonight.

 

NHL Defense

 

• There does not seem to be an overwhelming chalk defensemen as of this writing. If it’s anyone it will be Darren Raddysh (6200) though. He has strong industry projections and is well-positioned running the TB Power Play. Brandt Clarke (4700) and Roman Josi (6000) probably see low double digits with Brady Skjei (2900) being the chalk value option at around 10% as well.
• There are a few clearly underpriced defensemen here tonight. Jake Walman (3900) is no longer on the power play, but still underpriced for his level of production. Dougie Hamilton (4300) and Simon Nemec (2900) probably split the time running NJ’s power play for the injured Luke Hughes – who sucks at running a power play anyway. The Blues power play has been bad, but Philip Broberg (3400) is really cheap, pretty productive, and they should get several cracks at it against Winnipeg and their backup goalie tonight. Thomas Chabot (4600) also continues to not be priced correctly.
• You can absolutely go to Zach Werenski (9000), Quinn Hughes (7800), Evan Bouchard (7300), or Jake Sanderson (6600) as well. Miro Heiskanen (6400) is also there, but he just seems kind of fine.
• Both Mike Matheson (3600) and Noah Dobson (5300) look like strong plays tonight. You can definitely play them together and with a MTL1 combination. You can do the same with Hughes/Faber as well if you can afford it.
• Rolling JJ Moser (3200) into a TB1 stack with or without Raddysh is definitely a contrarian way to go tonight.
• Rasmus Dahlin (6800), Bowen Byram (3900), Matthias Samuelsson (3800), and Owen Power (3400) are playing 50 of the 60 minutes combined for BUF. Any of these guys are viable simply due to the huge minutes they log as Buffalo chases the playoffs.

Synopsis: There’s a lot to like here – especially on the cheap end and with double-defense combinations. You really do not need to lean into the ownership at defense tonight because there are so many mis-priced guys. You can differentiate a NSH or TB stack by just not playing Raddysh/Josi – or even by just playing three defensemen. The value is so strong here I do not hate playing 3 of these guys.

 

NHL Goalies

 

• I suspect that the chalk will be Vasilevsky (8500) at 15%. There will be 4-5 guys between 10-15% though. I would imagine Filip Gustavsson (7300) is the chalky guy on the cheap end that ends up as owned as Vasilevsky.
• Jonathan Quick (7100) seems totally fine in what could be his last game in Los Angeles. Jake Allen (7200) certainly has the upside for a 35-save bonus against shot-happy Edmonton. I definitely like Tristan Jarry (8200) due to the high percentage of low danger shots that New Jersey puts out there.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• TB1/NSH2 or one of the LA lines seems like the way the field will go tonight. NSH1 and one of the Dallas lines will definitely be popular as well.
• TB1, DAL Power Play, and EDM1/PP are all solid options on the high end tonight. The value is there to get into this range tonight. It will be pretty easy to differentiate a TB or NSH stack by just not playing chalk Raddysh, Josi, or Skjei
• The MIN/MTL game definitely has the potential for some fireworks. MIN probablt does not come in as owned as I have them at the moment. MTL seems fine.
• I definitely like the Buffalo and St. Louis Power Plays for large field play tonight. They are both in strong spots at low ownership where they should see a fair number of opportunities.
• The OTT/CBJ game could definitely be a sleeper tonight. Merzlikins and Remier are two awful goaltenders, the pace projects to be strong, and nothing is super expensive besides Werenski. The drawback is CBJ does not commit many penalties and – while OTT can commit them in bunches – the CBJ Power Play sucks.
• I definitely like CBJ2 (Monahan/Jenner/Johnson) and OTT1 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig) as strong contrarian options from that game. OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio) also seems fine on the cheap end.
• There’s probably enough scoring here to where you do not need to restrict yourself to one construction or another. I am not sure there is a reason to go that heavy on 6-man stacks – and I think 4/2/1/1 stuff is totally fine tonight. There’s a ton of stuff with upside here that’s underpriced.
• There are so many mis-priced defensemen and skaters tonight. Take advantage and play some of these guys. You can even play three defensemen.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – there’s a bunch of different routes to go. I’d probably go with the TB chalk though. It’s easy enough to be different with some cheap stuff like CBJ2, OTT3, or Glass/Gritsyuk. The underpriced defensemen also make it easy to just play Tampa or Nashville and not Raddysh or Josi. MIN1/NSH1 with cheap defensemen looks like a very strong build tonight.

In larger fields – Choose your own adventure. Just avoid TB1 + Raddysh or NSH1 + Josi combinations without something seriously contrarian paired with it. You can go to any number of the lines I’ve mentioned above, however I think the BUF Power Play is a solid, lower-owned spot. The OTT/CBJ game also has the potential to just melt down due to the terrible goaltending, but I’m not super optimistic about that. Any of the TB/DAL/EDM tier looks strong. My hunch is MIN comes in lower owned than they should due to the B2B as well. They look like a strong play at ownership. It is definitely a night where a three defensemen build is in play as well. Take advantage of the underpriced players tonight.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm