Welcome to Saturday’s 9 game slate of NHL DFS. There’s a couple chalk spots and a few lower owned ones I like – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• The chalk tonight is pretty clear – and it’s ANH2 (Sennecke/Granlund/Killorn) at 22% owned. They’re facing the Kings for the second time in as may nights, but they are way underpriced at 10.9. This is going to lead the field to play PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell) at 17% ownership and VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) at 13% ownership. You will see double digit peripheral ownership on ANH1 (Gauthier/McTavish/Strome) and LAK1 (Laferriere/Kempe/Malott) as well. 
• The first big decision point here is how you want to handle this LA/ANH game. I think playing one secondary line or another in smaller fields is a reasonable way to go. ANH2 is way underpriced. In larger fields I think this is a really strong spot to get under the field on. These teams didn’t exactly light the world on fire last night, the Kings are a pretty good defensive team, and their power play sucks (despite being better recently). It’s a big slate and there’s a lot of ownership concentrated in this spot.
• I do not mind PIT1 or VGK1 at their ownerships at all though. The have significant chunks of their teams’ projected scoring and that’s what I’m often looking for on these larger slates.
• There are three other spots that stand out to me from a concentration of scoring standpoint: WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo), EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins), and my favorite line of the slate – NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Meier). All of these lines not only encompass a huge chunk of their teams’ goal total tonight – but you get an even bigger chunk if you add a 4th F/C on top of them. Those players would be Draisaitl for EDM, Vilardi for WPG, and Hischier for NJ. It is definitely feasible to play WPG1 + Vilardi or NJ1 + Hischier though – and both of those options accomplish the goal of monopolizing most of a team’s scoring. You can get even more of NJ’s scoring equity if you add Gritsyuk with Hischier – which will be more feasible if he gets moved to the 2nd line in place of an ill Palat. NJ1/PP and WPG1/PP are two of my favorite stacks on the board tonight.
• If you don’t want to commit the bulk of your salary, you could definitely go to a variant of NJ2 with Hischier/Mercer/Gritsyuk/Hamilton as well. WPG2 (Toews/Perfitti/Vilardi) are talented guys that have started to play well recently – so if you want to go there as a cheap pivot that’s probably fine too.
• It’s definitely viable to simply roster EDM1 in large fields though. They could certainly just destroy this putrid Canucks team. They are hard to play at that price, but there are options. PIT2, PIT3, CHI2, and NSH2 provide some options as pivots away from ANH2 – which will be the only popular combination with EDM.
• If you want something on the cheaper end as an alternative to ANH – I give you the Chicago Blackhawks. They are facing the always penalty-happy Bruins and their struggling penalty kill. CHI2 (Dickinson/Mikheyev/Bertuzzi) and CHI3 (Donato/Moore/Lardis) both project as acceptable value plays – but not close to ANH2. The Chicago power play is also a viable way to go.
• VGK3 (Hertl/Bowman/Kolesar), PIT2 (Malkin/Novak/Chinakov) and NSH2 (Haula/Bunting/Stamkos) look like three other reasonable options as cheap fillers.
• Boston, Carolina, and Ottawa also have decent totals tonight. There is just very little concentration to their scoring – so I have no idea which line to go with. You could certainly go with the OTT power play against the always penalty-happy Canadiens and their shaky goaltending though.
• Toronto is also pretty interesting. I’d go to a Power Play stack before either of the even strength lines though. I’ll never talk anyone off NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista) either.

In smaller fields – I think you can play a line from LA/ANH for sure. ANH2 would be my choice just due to the standout value. I’m ok with the cheap chalk. I think you can definitely get away from PIT1/VGK1 to WPG1, EDM1 or NJ1 though. They’re both in strong spots. If you want to play PIT – NJ2 or WPG2 seem like fine options to me. 

In larger fields, WPG and NJ stacks are the standouts for me. NJ is in a solid spot against probably the NHL’s worst goalie in Fredrik Andersen. WPG looks like they’re starting to turn it around and they’re in a high-profile game against a defensively-challenged Toronto team. These spots both have ownership, but likely substantially less than PIT or VGK. I think PIT2 or PIT3 are reasonable large field secondary stacks to create some leverage for yourself as well. EDM1 or some kind of EDM combination also seems very strong here. EDM1/VGK3 or EDM1/PIT2 or 3 both seem like reasonable routes tonight. You could also go to the OTT or CHI Power Plays, but I’m more bearish on those spots due to them being lesser game environments. I’m definitely getting under the field on LA/ANH in these formats

NHL Defense

 

• There isn’t any overwhelming chalk at defense today. Brandt Clarke (4800), Evan Bouchard (7500), Artyom Levshunov (3600), Pavel Mintyukov (3300), Kris LeTang (4400), and Shea Theodore (5200) all likely garner 10-15% ownership. You can add Alexander Nikishin (3200) to that group if Gostisbehere is out again.
• McDavid/Hyman/Bouchard/Ekholm seems like a strong construction tonight. Same goes for Sanderson/Chabot from OTT.
• Any of the cheap power play guys are fine. You can add Zeev Buium (3200) and Uvis Balinskas (2800) to that pile as well.
• As far as cheap guys I like: Jeremy Lauzon (2700), Nick Blankenburg (2800), Brett Kulak (2800), Brady Skjei (2900), and Gus Forsling (3300) stand out to me
• I do not think Zach Werenski (9200) gets much ownership tonight. He’s a strong large field play
• Jake Walman (3500), Matthias Ekholm (3700), Jake Trouba (3800), Filip Hronek (3900), Morgan Reilly (4100), and Dougie Hamilton (4300) are a few other non-PP guys I like

Synopsis: I do not see much of a reason to spend up tonight outside of an EDM stack. It’s a reasonable slate to play cheaper guys – because there’s a ton of them. I do like paying for Werenski in larger fields though. He has upside that nobody else does.

NHL Goalies

 

• There’s no firm chalk. Logan Thompson (8400), Tristan Jarry (8300), Jacob Markstrom (7600), and Jeremy Swayman (8000) will probably be 12% or so each
• You will not feel good about any of the cheap guys. I don’t hate playing Anton Forsberg (7800) or Ville Husso (7600) though. Maybe these two teams just wanna get the game over with and go to the club.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• ANH2/PIT1, ANH2/VGK1, LAK1/VGK1 look like the chalk combinations tonight. There’s going to be a ton of ownership on this LA/ANH game and it’s super volatile.
• Nothing really compares to ANH2 at their price, but it’s such a big slate that you can easily get away from them in large field. PIT2, PIT3, VGK3, NSH2, and CHI2 are just a few of the options available.
• I’m looking for concentration of scoring on these larger slates. I think NJ1, EDM1, and WPG1 offer it at lower ownership than PIT1 or VGK1. I have no problem with the chalkier stuff in any format though. You just can’t play ANH or LAK with them.
• I can definitely see CAR, OTT, or BOS taking this down. I just have no idea which lines does well for those teams. CAR2 and OTT Power Play would be my two top choices there
• Chicago is my favorite cheap team tonight.
• I think going cheaper at defense makes sense once again. There’s a ton of cheap power play guys. Utilize them.
• The balanced builds have a solid win rate on these types of slates, but the pricing algorithm has clearly changed. It’s totally fine to lean toward the more expensive stuff at this point.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – you can play the ANH/LAK game for sure. ANH2 and the Kings Power Play would be my favorites. PIT1 and VGK1 are fine, but not with ANH. NJ1, WPG1, and EDM1 are all strong alternatives.

In larger fields – I love the idea of getting way under on ANH/LAK. There’s just a ton of ownership and little concentration of scoring there. I’d rather go to PIT2/PIT3/VGK3 or CHI at lower ownership. WPG1, NJ1, and EDM1 are the standouts for me. I can see going to CHI or OTT Power plays as well. Toronto and Nashville also have merit at super low ownership.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm