Welcome to a 7 game slate of NHL DFS. We have some clear chalk, but a slate that’s total nonsense – so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*There will be multiple updates in discord
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk looks very clear tonight in NHL – It’s the NJ Power Play (Glass/Brown/Meier/Hischier). NJ1 (Glass/Brown/Meier) looks to be about 25% owned and NJ2 (Hischier/Gritsyuk/Hameenaho) about 15%. Five of the 6 highest owned players are Devils tonight. They are facing a Columbus team that is pourous defensively and plays at a fast pace. The Blue Jackets have a lot of faults – but being penalty-happy is not one of them. They have consistently committed very few penalties all year. It’s fine to power play stack here, but don’t expect a whole lot of chances on the man advantage for the Devils tonight. Play these guys because they project extremely well industry-wide. The chalk way to round out the lineup will likely be a two-man from EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins) or TB1 (?/Kucherov/Hagel). Cirelli is out tonight. These are two of the best lines in hockey – and they’re both in strong spots. I have both lines at around 15% ownership – with whomever replaced the injured Cirelli and Nugent-Hopkins being markedly lower owned than their linemates. Hagel/Kucherov and McDavid/Hyman will likely be the popular two-mans here. It’s hard to dislike those two lines on a slate where the mid-tier is so short on ceiling.
- Additionally – I have EDM2 (Draisaitl/Kapanen/Podkolzin) and ANH3 (McTavish/Gauthier/Viel) at 12 and 10% respectively.
- The obvious alternative to EDM1 and TB1 is CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis). They are facing an Ottawa team starting James Remier in net. However – as I’ve mentioned before – this isn’t exactly a cushy matchup despite the poor goaltender. OTT allows by far the lowest shot volume in the league and – while they are at home – CAR1 will still have to tangle with the absolutely suffocating Pinto line a fair amount. You can certainly go to CAR3 (Staal/Martinook/Ehlers) or CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Hall) if you want. Carolina has a nice total and they’re a good offense – but just be aware that this is not a particularly strong spot.
- The clear pivot away from NJ – or accompaniment to them – will be some sort of Flyers stack. They are facing a fourth-string goaltender for Washington and project as strong values industry-wide. I have all of PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Grebenkin), PHI2 (Tippett/Zegras/Barkey) and PHI3 (Cates/Brink/Michkov) between 6-8% ownership each. It’s not a particularly high-volume power play spot, but the WSH PK does stink. My preference here is PHI2 – and our projections agree. However, this is also a strong spot for a 5 or 6-man stack due to the spread out nature of the scoring and minutes. Going something like Tippett/Zegras/Michkov/Drysdale gets you exposure to both PHI2 and PHI3 with two guys from each power play. I think that or just a full-on Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny/Drysdale PP stack make the most sense to me. These lines are a joke though – that will be a theme.
- Going to a larger 5 or 6-man Columbus stack is something that sims love early in the day as well. It makes sense. You play them with Greaves hoping they roll chalk New Jersey and wipe out 65% of the field. However, Marchenko is out and this situation is a joke. Fantilli/Marchment/Lundestrom is now CBJ1 (what?). Lundestrom was a healthy scratch half the time with Anaheim last year. CBJ3 (Coyle/Sillinger/Olivier) project pretty well and have been getting second line minutes of 16-17/night. CBJ2 (Monahan/Johnson/Voronkov) is probably their best 3-man line – but new coach Rick Bowness only plays them 10-12 minutes a night and none of them are on the power play. I get why they sim well – but these lines and this situation is a total joke and is just really gross. Go here if you want – but I’d prefer to just play Werenski/Fantilli/Marchment or CBJ3. I wish we could play CBJ2 – but they are borderline unplayable.
- So there are actually a few things I like on this slate. Unfortunately it’s two teams I’ve dragged all year and then two others. Let’s start with – sigh – the Toronto Maple Leafs. Few people have been more vocal about the Leafs being garbage than me. However, this is undeniably a strong spot for them. They are facing an Edmonton team that is going to push the pace, has really shaky goaltending, poor transition defense, and a piss poor penalty kill. Minnesota had three power plays against them the other night and scored on two of them in a combined 40 seconds. I am definitely interested in TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli) in a strong matchup against the EDM depth lines and some terrible defensive pairings. Auston Matthews is $9800 – which is very expensive – so I think you can either play of fade him and be ok with either. I think a Tavares/Nylander/Kneis/Ekman-Larsson Power Play stack is fine – but I am loathe to dismiss Maccelli. He’s one of the league’s better playmakers – who somehow does not play on the Power Play (total lunacy) and I really like his ceiling at the price. If you want somebody really cheap – I do think you can go to TOR3 (Roy/Robertson/Cowan). They have been pretty good and should have similar matchups at a super low price.
- The other team that definitely stands out to me is – ugh – the Seattle Kraken. These guys are like the David Copperfield of Hockey – I have no idea how they are winning games. However, they have played reasonably well, are in a strong spot against this always volatile and penalty-prone Anaheim team, in a must-win game with playoff implications. I definitely like SEA1 (Beniers/McCann/Eberle) and adding Dunn to make it a Power Play stack. Those guys are playing a ton and they get a premium matchup against this Granlund line which has not been very good defensively. However, don’t dismiss SEA3 (Wright/Schwartz/Kakko) either. They’ve shown flashes, but have yet to fully figure it out. You can certainly add Stephenson to SEA1 or Tolvanen to SEA3 for power play correlation. Stephenson/Tolvanen/Montour also seems fine. I’m just not playing Ryan Winterton. I’m definitely in on SEA1 – and they’re viable in all field sizes. I like SEA3 – but they are large field only.
- You can also go to the Anaheim side of that game – but there is more ownership, less power play upside, and less concentrated minutes. ANH3 (McTavish/Gauthier/Viel) seem fine for smaller fields, but they seem a bit overowned for large fields compared to other spots I like. Both ANH1 (Sennecke/Killorn/Granlund) and ANH2 (Poehling/Kreider/Terry) are fine as well. Chris Kreider (4100) and Troy Terry (4900) are definitely two guys I like at their prices. This game as a whole seems like a decent one for offense.
- I also want to highlight is Pittsburgh. Ilya Sorokin is a strong contender for the Vezina Trophy (best goaltender), but the Islanders allow some of the most high danger chances in the league and expect him to stand on his head. The Islanders don’t commit many penalties, but they definitely struggle to kill them off. I can definitely see going to PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/Brazeau) or the PIT PP (Crosby/Rakell/Mantha and/or Malkin). However, PIT2 (Malkin/Chinakov/Novak) is where my interest lies. It’s a pretty small 109 minute sample, but this line has posted a whopping 3.9 expected goals on only 62 shots per 60. They are generating a ton of high danger chances and Chinakov’s shooting ability is really making an impact on this line. I really like these guys at 12.7K and 3% owned. PIT3 (Kindel/Mantha/McGroarty) are also viable in large fields. Our tools like this spot for PIT quite a bit and I agree.
- Cirelli being out is a big loss for Tampa. His is by far their best defensive center – and has been a staple on their best defensive lines all year. Tampa also continues to play very physical hockey and commit penalties at a very high rate. Enter the Buffalo Sabres. My hunch is that absolutely nobody goes here tonight – but they have undeniably been very good offensively – especially on the power play. I think you can definitely go to BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs…ugh) or BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn) as even strength combinations – but my favorite here is the BUF Power Play. They continue to be an elite NHL Power Play despite the loss of power play stud Josh Norris. Norris’ availability is for tonight is unclear – and BUF will be far and away #1 on my board if he’s active. I think something like Thompson/Tuch/Doan or Thompson/Tuch/Zucker/Quinn is definitely in play here. Alex Tuch isn’t on the power play, but he’s going to play a bunch and is the best wing on this team. I’m just loathe to fade him unless Josh Norris is active. Peyton Krebs is terrible, but he is for sure viable at min price.
- NYI1 is fully correlated on the power play, but they are not high on my list. I’ve dragged Stu Skinner, but he has played much better recently and we know he is capable of being very good for long stretches (see the Oilers cup run last year).
In smaller fields – My sims definitely say that it’s hard to get away from New Jersey. I certainly get it – but they are going to be mega-owned. I’d guess Timo Meier gets around 40% in the $333 tonight. It’s a good spot – but that’s pretty outrageous for a team that has been as bad as the Devils. I understand the appeal, but there is definitely a viable alternative to NJ1 in PHI2. I think the build you have to avoid is a New Jersey stack with a two-man from EDM1 or TB1. That’s going to be a ton of chalk. If you must play one of TB or EDM – and I think neither or a Hyman/Hagel one-off are solid options – I’d probably go to the McDavid line. I trust the Leafs and Stolarz to suck much more than a BUF team that has played much better the last month or so.
In larger fields, you have to decide how to play New Jersey. They project and sim really well for me, but there is a clear path to failure for them. They just aren’t any good. Connor Brown should be nowhere near an NHL Power Play. I think you can certainly do something like get under the field on Meier/Brown and stay even on Hischier/Gritsyuk/Hamilton. That 3-man is the best NJ combination to me. Philadelphia seems viable, but the scoring is going to be spread out. I’d spread out my exposure to those guys, play them in large stacks, or just be under the field on them. I think PIT2, SEA3, and BUF2 are solid alternatives to the chalky cheap stuff. My preferred plan here is to attack the mid-tier and get over the field on SEA1, BUF, PIT, and Sigh…the Leafs. Going toward a more balanced build as opposed to using the Kucherov/McDavid types will be a leveraged way to go.
NHL Defense
- Dougie Hamilton (5300) looks like the super chalk here at 22%. I’ll have Evan Bouchard (7800), Darren Raddysh (6400), Brandon Montour (4900), and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2800) around 15% each. I could see Ekman-Larsson ending up in the 20s though – and even higher in small fields.
- On the high end – it’s always viable to play Zach Werenski (8500) at 12% – although I am a bit concerned to see his minutes dropping to 22-24 from 28-30 the last few games. The massive minutes are a big part of his value. The Monahan line losing playing time is also a big concern to me. CBJ3 is just a serious offensive downgrade from those 3 talented guys.
- Rasmus Dahlin (6700) is my favorite high-end defensemen. No big surprise. BUF continues to play Dahlin/Samuelsson/Power/Byram about 80% of the minutes. I think you can go to any of those guys.
- If you want to go with Jake Walman (4700), Darnell Nurse (4200), or Matthias Ekholm (3900) they seem fine around 8-10% owned each.
- There are a pile of guys I like in the high 3K to 5K range tonight. John Carlson (5000) is way underpriced for the 25 minutes he’s playing. He makes a great small field pivot away from Hamilton. Vince Dunn is one of my favorite defensemen here for obvious reasons. He’s great with a SEA1 stack. Erik Karlsson (4800) is still cheap and an integral part of the PIT offense. Tony DeAngelo (3900) and Travis Sanheim (3700) will both play a pile of minutes and be reasonable productive
- Victor Hedman (4300) played on 3rd pairing last time out – but that could easily change pre-game or mid-game tonight. He’s eventually going to be playing with the top line again – and he’s way underpriced if he gets anywhere close to 20 minutes. I love him as a large field gamble if he starts on 3rd pair.
- Simon Nemec (2900), Owen Power (3000), Brett Pesce (3000), Jake Slavin (2900), Bowen Byram (3100), Olen Zellwegger (3100) and Jake McCabe (3300) aren’t exciting. However, they’re fine as super cheap guys.
- If you really need someone cheaper than Ekman-Larsson at 2800 – I think you should rebuild. If you must I think Ryker Evans (2500), Jalen Chatfield (2600), and the terrible Jonas Seigenthaler (2500) are my picks.
Synopsis: You’re going to have to decide on Hamilton and Ekman-Larsson. I’m fine going without Bouchard in an EDM stack (if you’re playing one) and he seems ok by himself as well. I think living in the 3.7-5K tier or playing Dahlin is a sharp move tonight though.
NHL Goalies
- I expect Ilya Sorokin (7800) and Andrei Vasilevsky (8300( to be the chalk here – but only at 15% or so each. I’d imagine whomever starts for SEA (7300) will get ownership as well.
- I’d guess people find a way to not play Stu Skinner (7600), but he’s my favorite goalie on the slate. I don’t hate Dan Vladar (7900) either.
- The big balls plays of the night are definitely Elvis Merzlikins (7400) or Anthony Stolarz (7200). That Stolarz contract is looking like yet another blunder by the Leafs.
- Confirmed: Vladar (PHI), Merzlikins (CBJ), Sorokin (NYI), Ingram (EDM), Stolarz (TOR),
- Unconfirmed: Bjorklund (WSH), Remier (OTT), Bussi (CAR), Markstrom (NJ), Ellis (BUF), Vasilevsky (TB), Skinner (PIT), Dostal (ANH), Grubauer (SEA)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The NJ Power play and a two-man of Kucherov/Hagel or McDavid/Hyman is the chalk. If you’re going to do the latter – I would go with Nugent-Hopkins. His assist rate is much higher than Hyman’s and you really need McDavid to be scoring the goals for him to pay off that tag. I think fading Nugent-Hopkins in EDM stack is generally a mistake tonight.
- Everything NJ is going to pick up too much ownership. They project crazy well industry-wide, but they are not a slam dunk. This team is without their playmaker in Jack Hughes , their power play sucks, and they have been pretty bad all year. Systemic failure here is more likely than the field may believe – especially in an event like the $333 or $222.
- You can definitely stack EDM without McDavid if you want. I’d stick to Nugent-Hopkins and two of Draisaitl/Bouchard/Hyman though. You’re playing for a middling McDavid outcome where he gets 3 assists or something.
- large stacks of NJ sim incredibly well. The same goes for Columbus, but their Lines and Minutes distribution absolutely suck.
- PHI is a fine pivot. PHI2 or a Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny/Sanheim or Drysdale stack would be my preference. I think PIT2, CAR2, SEA3, and BUF2 are very viable at much lower ownership as well.
- SEA is probably my favorite spot tonight. SEA1 looks great at 5-6% and SEA3 at 1-2%. SEA1 seems strong in all field sizes tonight.
- PIT1/2/PP, BUF1/2/PP, and…sigh…TOR2/PP or TOR3 seem like the strongest plays tonight. I don’t have a serious preference between them – but BUF PP will jump to the top of my board if Norris returns.
- I like rolling the dice on either Dahlin or any of the 3-4K guys I mentioned at defense. John Carlson looks like a particularly strong play in much smaller fields like the $222
- I think it makes a ton of sense to play Elvis tonight. Stu Skinner piques my interest as well.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – You can definitely play NJ – but there will be a ton of leverage in fading them and playing Elvis. You can eliminate a huge chunk of the field that way, but it’s a wildly variant strategy. If I’m playing NJ it’s Hischier/Gritsyuk/Hamilton and lean toward passing on super chalky NJ1. The build to stay away from is NJ stacks with these EDM or TB 2-mans. I also think SEA1 and Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny/Drysdale are viable in all formats. Anaheim is fine too, but it’s not as strong a spot for them and they’re higher owned.
In larger fields – SEA leads the way for me followed by BUF/PIT/TOR. I really do like this spot for PIT at very low ownership. You can go to PIT1, PIT2, or a larger stack. I think you can definitely get under the field on NJ or just concentrate on Hischier/Gritsyuk/Hamilton. Game Theory – and sims – will probably tell you to play a bunch of Columbus, but I’m fading. CBJ2 and Werenski both losing minutes really hurts the team’s upside as a whole. Elvis is definitely a strong play though.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm