Welcome to Wednesday’s NHL DFS slate – the penultimate NHL DFS slate of the regular season. We have a 6 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The clear chalk today is the Ottawa Senators against the Putrid Toronto Maple Leafs. They seem content to play all of their guys tonight – so I expect OTT2 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig) to be the highest owned line at 22%, followed by OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux) at 16%. The prices are reasonable and the playing time is pretty much assured given that it’s a Canadian Rivalry game. DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) also come in around 16%. They seem fine against Florida – although I don’t like them as much now that Florida is actually playing people in front of the home crowd. Chicago also comes in quite chalky against an Jose – in what projects to be a game played at a snails’ pace. CHI1 (Bedard/Lardis/Nazar) and CHI2 (Bertuzzi/Mikheyev/Frondell) both check in at 12-13%. They’re okay – but I just don’t want to eat that much ownership in such a slow-paced game for a team that’s playing everybody.
- Rest? What are you a candy ass? John Tortarella doesn’t believe in such nonsense. Torts is still in evaluation mode and I expect him to go all out against a Seattle team starting it’s 3rd string goalie. VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) and VGK2 (Marner/Dorofeyev/Howden look solid at 9-11% ownership tonight. I like them a lot and I expect Torts to treat this like a dress rehearsal for the playoffs. I definitely think you can go to SEA1 (Eberle/Beniers/McMann) as a salary saver on the other side as well.
- This Leafs/Senators game is in Ottawa – so it’s a pretty dreadful spot for TOR1 (Tavares/Nylander/Cowan). However, our model does like the value on them and I agree. OTT3 has been an elite defensive line, but I expect a physical game tonight. TOR1 is fine, but I definitely like TOR2 (Domi/Knies/Robertson) as a salary saver tonight. OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins) looks to come in at about 8%. That’s probably too rich for me on this slate, but I get going there.
- I don’t like this game at all – but I guess we have to talk about San Jose – because our model loves them again. SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Chernyshov) has our highest raw projection of the night and 10-11% ownership – so they project as a strong play. SJ2 (Wennberg/Eklund/Sherwood) and SJ3 (Misa/Graf/Toffoli) all project as strong values.
- The other line I want to discuss is FLA1 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaege). These guys aren’t getting that much ownership, but I expect full run from them in the final game of the year in front of the home crowd.
- We already know BUF is resting their key guys. I would expect the same from Tampa Bay and Dallas. I do think BUF1 (Norris/Doan/Benson) is fine as a value play though.
In smaller fields – I think the Senators with someone contrarian is fine. Something like a 4-man OTT Power Play stack with BUF1, SJ2, TOR2, or SEA1 seems fine.
In large fields, it’s wide open. I am worried about the pace in the Chicago/San Jose game – but it’s kind of priced in to everyone except SJ1. I really do like Vegas as an alternative to Ottawa and Toronto is definitely a leveraged play tonight. SEA1 looks strong on the cheap end tonight.
Defensemen
- Mo Seider (6400) is the chalk tonight at 23%. He seems totally fine, but that’s a rich price for him. Rasmus Andersson (5000), Darren Raddysh (6200), and Justin Faulk (3700) come in around 15% each.
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3000), Luca Cagnioni (2700), and Jordan Spence (3400, I think he will be the guy) are a few cheap power play guys tonight. Artem Zub (2900) and Marek Alscher (2600) are also fine as non-Power Play options on the cheap end.
- I like all the Vegas guys – weather you’re playing their lines or not. Shea Theodore (4300) and Noah Hanifin (3300) look strong in the mid-single digits.
- Vince Dunn (4400), Brandon Montour (4900), Thomas Harley (5100), and Adam Fox (6100) also seem fine.
This is not a very strong position tonight. It’s a decent night to save salary and be contrarian here.
NHL Goalies
- John Gibson (7900), Jake Oettinger (7800), and Andrei Vasilevsky (8200) are the chalk at 15-17% each.
- Dennis Hildeby (6500) is the clear leverage play, but he will probably get 10% ownership or so. He’s a strong play, but don’t think he’s low owned.
- I don’t mind going to Yaroslav Askarov (8100) or Daniil Tarasov (7500) at lower ownership.`
- If Tampa plays nobody I don’t mind Dylan Garand (7000)
- Confirmed: Gibson (DET), Tarasov (FLA), Garand (NYR), Oettinger (DAL), Remier (OTT), Hildeby (TOR), Askarov (SJ), Hart (VGK)
- Unconfirmed: Vasilevsky (TB), Ellis (BUF), Knight (CHI), Kokko (SEA)
Stacks and Theory
- OTT1/2, CHI1/2, and DET2 are the chalk lines tonight.
- I think it’s fine to play Ottawa. There’s enough in the 10-11K range that’s contrarian to where you can play a power play stack with cheap defensemen
- VGK1, FLA1, and SJ1 are also strong options tonight. I prefer the San Jose depth to SJ1 though.
- I think this is a great night to spend down at defense
- A larger stack is fine tonight.
- Don’t be afraid to double spend down at defense tonight. There’s plenty of good cheaper options
- Don’t feel pressured to spend all your salary either. You can absolutely leave some on the table. We’re bound to get some value once we hear about other teams resting guys.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm