NHL DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

NHL DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NHL DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the NHL DFS Range of Outcomes and the NHL Contest Simulations.

Ceiling Data Breakdown

TB FL1: FL1 line for Tampa Bay has a substantial ceiling of 80.2 fantasy points. Their high salary of $23000 reflects this potential. They also show a 25% chance of a top finish and a 54.8% chance of a top 5 finish out of 10000 simulations. Additionally, they have a 23.8% chance of a 50+% finish. These metrics suggest that while the salary is high, they have significant upside.
PIT FL1: Pittsburgh’s FL1 line has a ceiling of 68.26 fantasy points. Their salary is $19300. They have a 7.1% chance of a top finish and a 30.2% chance of a top 5 finish. While their ceiling is lower than TB FL1, they are a consistent fantasy performer suggesting a reasonable chance of exceeding their projected median of 34.13 fantasy points.
SJ FL1: The SJ FL1 line boasts a ceiling of 71.64 fantasy points with a salary of $18500. They have a 12.8% chance of a top finish and a 40% chance of a top 5 finish. Notably, their projected ownership is quite high at 29.57%, indicating they are expected to be a popular pick despite being a team that may not be a top offensive powerhouse.
EDM FL1: The EDM FL1 line with Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and McDavid has a ceiling of 65.2 fantasy points and a salary of $20100. Their top finish probability is 4.1%, and their top 5 finish probability is 27.2%. Despite a slightly lower ceiling compared to others at their salary range in this data, their reputation and offensive capabilities make them a team with consistent high upside.
EDM FL2: The EDM FL2 line still possesses a high offensive ceiling. Their ceiling is 63.32 fantasy points with a salary of $16700. They have a 4.4% chance of a top finish and a 23.3% chance of a top 5 finish. Their lower salary compared to other elite offensive lines might make them an attractive option.

Value Data Breakdown

Colton Dach (CHI): With a low salary of $2800, Dach playing for CHI has a ceiling of 16.2 fantasy points. While his top finish probabilities are minimal, his 2x% is 72.1% and 3x% is 32.2%. This suggests a relatively decent chance of achieving fantasy scores two or three times his salary, making him a potential value play if he can approach his median of 8.1 fantasy points.
Patrick Giles (SJ): Also at a salary of $2500, Giles of SJ has a ceiling of 14.48 fantasy points. His 2x% is 70.7% and 3x% is 30.1%, indicating a reasonable likelihood of providing significant value relative to his very low cost. His median projection is 7.24 fantasy points.
Brett Berard (NYR): Priced at a salary of $2500, Berard from NYR has a ceiling of 14.36 fantasy points. His value metrics include a 2x% of 68.9% and a 3x% of 29.5%. With a median projection of 7.18 fantasy points, he represents a low-risk option that could free up salary for higher-priced stars.
Olle Lycksell (PHI): Another player with a salary of $2500, Lycksell of PHI has a ceiling of 14.48 fantasy points. His 2x% is 67.4% and 3x% is 28%. His median projection is 7.24 fantasy points, making him comparable to other similarly priced players in terms of potential value.
Artyom Levshunov (CHI): As a defenseman with a salary of $2500, Levshunov from CHI has a ceiling of 13.68 fantasy points. His 2x% is 64.8% and 3x% is 23.6%. While his ceiling and 3x% are slightly lower than the forwards listed here, his median projection of 6.84 fantasy points still offers potential value at his price point, especially for lineups requiring a low-cost defenseman.

High Owned Data Breakdown

SJ FL1: As the most highly owned line in this dataset with 29.57% projected ownership, SJ FL1 has a ceiling of 71.64 fantasy points and a salary of $18500. Their probabilities of a high finish include a 12.8% for top finish and 40% for top 5 finish. Their high ownership suggests many DFS players believe they will outperform their salary.
MIN FL1: The MIN FL1 line has a projected ownership of 17.66%. Their statistics include a ceiling of 65.32 fantasy points and a salary of $17200. They have a 4.4% chance for a top finish and a 25.3% chance for a top 5 finish. Their high ownership could be attributed to a perceived favorable matchup or value at their salary.
PIT FL1: With a projected ownership of 15.86%, PIT FL1 has a ceiling of 68.26 fantasy points and a salary of $19300. Their chances of a top performance include a 7.1% for top finish and 30.2% for top 5 finish. PIT FL1 consistent high-level play likely contributes to their significant projected ownership.
TB FL1: Owning a 14.52% projected ownership, TB FL1 has the highest ceiling in this selection at 80.2 fantasy points and a salary of $23000. Their probabilities for top finishes are 25% for top finish and 54.8% for top 5 finish. Despite their high salary, their potential for a massive score justifies the considerable ownership.
EDM FL1: EDM FL1 has a projected ownership of 12.15%. Their ceiling is 65.2 fantasy points with a salary of $20100. They have a 4.1% chance for a top finish and a 27.2% chance for a top 5 finish. Having Connor McDavid likely boosts their projected ownership due to the potential for correlated scoring.