Welcome back to the NFL Positional Breakdown. We’re back for week 4! Let’s take a look at this weeks top RB, WR, and TE plays for this upcoming Sunday main slate.
This article is written based on Draftkings pricing, but the information is applicable towards Fanduel play as well.
Let’s get to it!
Running Backs
Expensive – Saquon Barkley $8,000
- Broke the slate last week where he broke off a 65 yard touchdown against the Saints and then punched in an exclamation point score in the 4th quarter.
- Barkley has an insane role right now, the research sheets at Paydirt (which you can find here https://wp.paydirtdata.com/nfl-research-sheets/), have Saquon with the highest expected PPR points for any RB in the league at 24.33, that’s pretty insane.
- He finds himself in a “perceived” tough match up with Tampa Bay, who are thought of as an above average run defense with suppressed ownership. Sign me up.
- Our models have him for a median projection of 20.15 and ceiling of 38.30.
Value – James Conner $6,500
- Wanted to highlight Conner as he finds himself in an elite game environment where his QB will be one of the chalkiest on the slate.
- When we think of the Commanders, we think of the worst pass defense in the league. What we don’t realize is that their run defense is just as poor.
- He gets a lot of work in the red zone and has pass catching ability, he’s a nice pick in this range which gives you exposure to a high scoring game.
- Our models have his median at 16.67 and ceiling at 31.18.
Wide Receivers
Expensive – Justin Jefferson $8,700
- This guy is just incredible. With Darnold at QB he hasn’t missed a beat (besides his two drops last week which would have altered the slate for us MIN stackers…).
- He’s been torching defenses every week and now finds himself in a divisional matchup with the Packers who can definitely be beat through the air.
- He makes a natural pairing once again with Darnold and if Addison is back, that’s another strong weapon defenses need to plan for. I like the spot and want to go right back to the well.
- His median is at 19.61 and with a ceiling of 40 points this week, he’s a strong, super low owned option for your teams this week.
Value – Rashid Shaheed $5,500
- Going right back to the well here in a bounce back spot for Shaheed.
- He finds himself coming off a donut at chalk against Philly and is now in another dome game against the Falcons who have been good but not great on defense this year.
- The real value here is how close he projected to an EXTREMELY chalky Diontae Johnson. He has a comparable ceiling and is coming in at less than ONE percent owned, compared to 25% for Diontae. Short of CAR stacks, this is your GPP pivot..
- Our models have him for a median projection of 14.46 and ceiling of 29.55, rendering him still too cheap for his price.
Tight-End
Expensive – Brock Bowers $5,600
- The next great TE in the league finds himself in the prime flop lag spot against the Browns who have a very good defense on paper but just let Danny Dimes rip them apart at home.
- I want to consider Bowers this week for a few reasons:
- TE is gross this week
- He’s the highest projected tight end with a median of 12.47 and ceiling of 26.61
- And last but not least…. That boy goooooood
- Let’s get back to Brock as I’m not confident Minshew can support other pass catchers against this defense.
Value – Tommy Tremble $2,700
- This guy has carved out a nice role for himself with Carolina and now is in a great spot against the Bengals.
- He makes sense in Dalton sticks if you do so choose but really, he’s just a salary filler with not a lot of opportunity cost.
- He has a nice projection of 7.87 and ceiling of 17.11, making him the best of the bottom of the barrell options this week.
- Be wary how you play him as he will be realtively high owned.
Some of my favorite leverage plays at each position are –
- RB – Jerome Ford $5,700
- WR – Davante Adams $7,400
- TE – Hunter Henry $4,200
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