Welcome to the NFL Positional Breakdown for QBs! I really thought last week was the week… lot of weird outcomes but now with 3 weeks of data to work with, I think week 4 is where we will strike! Here’s a look ahead to the top QB plays in each salary range for Sunday’s main slate.
Expensive Tier ($7,000+ on DK)
Jalen Hurts $7,200
- Only three guys are over $7,000 on this Sunday slate and the best projected QB in the range goes to Hurts.
- Off of a very surprising low scoring game against the Saints who were running hotter than the sun, Hurts found him crossing the 300 passing yard threshold for the first time this year but it came with zero touchdowns and not a ton of rushing yards that we’re used to seeing from Hurts.
- Devonta Smith is also most likely going to miss this game with a concussion but if AJ Brown plays, this is a VERY high upside spot against in a below average TB passing defense that just allowed Bo Nix to completed 70% of his passes.
- I think this is a spot where you can see points from both sides and I think Hurts could be pushed to a ceiling outcome, especially with how stout TB is against the run.
- Hurts has a median projection of 21.60 and ceiling of 38.24 points.
CJ Stroud $7,000
- CJ Stroud had one of the worst games of his young career against the Vikings as they could not get any rhythm on offense and eventually, he saw himself pulled from the game in the 4th quarter with the game out of reach.
- However, do not fret, because he has a tasty matchup on deck against a man coverage heavy Jacksonville Jaguars that is missing some pieces on the defensive end.
- We just saw the Bills crush this JAX defense with crossing routes galore and when you have Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs in the same spot? Sign me up for Stroud stacks this week.
- His projection will not wow you with a median of 18.70 and ceiling of 32.83, but with his price almost dipping into the $6k range, you have to consider Stroud in a spot where they shouldn’t see much resistance in the passing game.
Mid-Tier $6,000+
Jayden Daniels $6,500
- This guy is absolutely electric. Came into Monday night as a touchdown underdog to the Bengals on the road and delivered one of the best QB fantasy performances we’ve seen on this young season.
- As stated in the week 2 QB breakdown, I knew he’d get more confident and he’d develop more of a rapport with his pass catchers and we’d see a ceiling outcome. And boy did he deliver…. to the tune of 254 yards, 2 touchdowns. He also added 38 rushing yards and a rushing TD of his own. Oh yeah, he also only had two incomplete passes the entire night.
- He finds himself in arguably a much easier QB spot against the Cardinals who sport a below average passing defense.
- Jayden Daniels has an extremely high median projection of 23.28 and ceiling of 41.86, making him about $1,500 too cheap for his projection. I think we see ownership increase significantly on him as the week goes on and I don’t mind it at all.
Joe Burrow $6,600
- Joe Sheisty was back to his usual ways as he lit the Commanders up for 324 yards and 3 TDs, 2 of which went to Ja’Marr Chase.
- Even though they lost, we saw what this offense is capable of. Despite the 0-3 start, Burrow has been very good his last two starts and now has all of his weapons back with Tee Higgins finally healthy.
- You have to think a spot here against the Panthers is just too good to pass up, as the Panthers do not like to blitz and will sit in soft coverages.
- Another week with his weapons getting healthy, I like Burrow’s chances this week to replicate what we saw on MNF, especially if his defense can’t stop Andy Dalton and the suddenly high powered Panthers offense.
- He has a median projection of 18.94 and ceiling of 33.27.
Cheap Tier $5,000+
Sam Darnold $5,700
- This guy has seemed to figure it out…. Another Darnold week where he looks like the second coming out there.
- Had an excellent game and it was easily the best of the year as he threw 4 TDs in an absolute rout of the Texans at home.
- He has a tough matchup this week on the road at GB but it’s definitely a secondary he can win against .
- The Darnold to JJ connection is strong and this stack would have popped off even more if JJ didn’t drop a few easy catches. I like their odds to light up Lambeau.
- Darnold has a median projection of 18.15 and ceiling of 31.90.
Justin Fields $5,500
- Did the Bears screw this up? Time will tell, but Fields has led the Steelers to relatively quiet 3-0 start and while they haven’t lit up the scoreboard, Fields has been serviceable and he finally found the endzone with his legs last week.
- This week he gets a matchup against the Colts who are just abysmal on the defensive side of the ball. You have to think one of these games we the Fields ceiling game of 2 rushing TD’s and 1-2 passing scores. Is this week? It just may be in the dome in Indy.
- I think it makes a lot of sense to look his way as we’ve seen a trend of cheaper QBs being optimal on these early season slates. Pairing him with Pickens is an inexpensive yet high upside way to start your lineup.
- Fields has a median projection of 18.15 and ceiling of 32.23.
Andy Dalton $5,300
- The red rifle getting a shout out for the second week in a row, as we saw him sub $5k last week and just turned the slate on it’s head as he tore up LV for 319 and 3 touchdowns.
- While I do think this may be flukey and more of an inspired performance by CAR as they benched Bryce Young, you have to consider him this week in a spot at home against a banged up Cincy defense that just let a rookie QB complete 90% (no, that’s not a typo) of his passes.
- Thielen being out is less than ideal but Diontae Johnson will more than likely be a strong value this week. I think this is a very good way to go in GPPs, especially if you think CIN doesn’t have a hard time moving the ball and scoring.
- Dalton has a strong median of 15.47 and ceiling of 27.13, making him a very nice value at this price.
I’ll be back on Friday to break down the top RBs, WRs, and TEs to see where we can find some pivots.
If you want to check out all the tools that we have at Paydirt such as our Player Range of Outcomes model, our Stack Finder Tool, our betting models, and our Contest Simulations, use this link to sign up for a daily, weekly, or monthly pass!