Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
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Captain ownership distributions
The big note here is to avoid Lamar Jackson in the Captain slot. His projected ownership there is around 14% while his exposure in winning frames is just 5.50% giving him a negative edge of around 9%. Him and Josh Allen are going to be really popular captain options but using either gives you very little wiggle room to fit both and make a high upside lineup.
The most interesting positive edge captain is Rashod Bateman. His exposure rate in winning lineups as a captain is over 8%, the highest rate in this run of contest sims, and he allows you to fit both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson comfortably in the Flex. He has a deep ball route tree that is especially valuable in showdown slates.
FLEX ownership distributions
As noted above, the Flex plays you need to get to are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. They both provide considerable edge in this slot and have 80%+ exposure in the Flex in winning lineups. Locking both in to start your lineups is an easy way to ensure both your floor and ceiling are high enough to compete.
The negative edges here are Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews. It’s worth noting that both in the Captain and the Flex we have Derrick Henry as a significant negative edge, showing he is overvalued on the whole. Mark Andrews is still getting ownership from the field based on his 2023 usage but he is just not being utilized the same way this year. He is a low upside option that is overpriced for his current role.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Dupes should be relatively low tonight, as evidenced by sum ownerships in cash optimals dipping below 300% within the top 10. The Flex core is going to be Henry/Jackson/Flowers and very likely Josh Allen. James Cook is going to take up some ownership for sure, but he won’t be part of the main Flex core.
There is no sighting of the Bills WR2/3 in the cash optimals and very little usage of Rashod Bateman or Isiah Lively. I think that putting a focus on the passing games here rather than using Cook/Henry is a pretty viable way to attack this showdown while keeping dupes low.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
There is a pretty clear lean towards the running games here, which I think is a bit odd. James Cook has been efficient and his usage is great, but unless the Bills stomp the Ravens I don’t think it’s plausible that Cook and Allen get there in tandem at the rate that they will be owned tonight. On the other side, Derrick Henry has had lackluster usage and is gamescript dependent, so unless you think that the Ravens win the game handedly he shouldn’t have heavy ownership.
Those two concepts play against each other, so you should never have Allen/Cook/Henry together in the same lineup. The circumstances do not make sense to do that.
Instead, I think you should do one of these things:
- Play for the passing game to be the reason this game is high scoring and ignore the RBs
- Fade Derrick Henry and play for the Bills to win the game with relative ease
In both scenarios, you are getting away from Henry, and that goes in line with what the contest sims believe offers the best edge. I think you should start your lineups with Lamar/Allen/Cook and then build a scenario with the others. Use kickers if you think the game is low scoring, use WR2/3s and Rashod Bateman if you think there is scoring. Remeber: The contest sims think that he is one of the best possible captains for all circumstances!
My personal lean is playing for a close game that features 2+ touchdowns from both teams and a focus on the passing game. I would start with Allen/Lamar/Cook in the Flex and build with Bateman/Samuel/Coleman as supplementary pieces.
Overvalued:
- Derrick Henry
- Allen/Lamar (CPT)
- Defenses
Undervalued:
- Rashod Bateman (CPT)
- Passing stacks
- Lamar/Allen Flex lock
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