Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
Some notes on Captain exposures and edges:
- It’s worth saying that this slate does, indeed, profile as a kicker captain slate because of the pricing on the studs and their availability with a cheaper captain option
- We can see that both kickers have a positive edge in the captain slot of between 1-3%
- We also have Hollywood Brown, a strong midpriced option, showing as a positive edge in the +2-3% range as well
Travis Kelce and Saquon Barkley both show as the worst captain options at around -4% edge. However, I do want to point out that an edge of +/-5% at captain can be mitigated by strong positive edge in the Flex. The thing you’ll have to worry more about with Barkley and Kelce are dupes, which we will touch on later.
FLEX ownership distributions
Notes on the Flex exposures and edges:
- Barkley has the highest positive edge in the flex by far at +16% with the next highest mark coming from Semaje Perine and Jalen Hurts at 10% each.
- he most significant negative edge belongs to Travis Kelce at -19.47% followed by Xavier Worthy at -12.31%.
There is a really good mix of players from both sides represented in the positive and negative sides here. I think the key take away from the flex edges is going to be that you should avoid Travis Kelce and focus on the Eagles studs instead.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Some notes on the above:
- There is no Flex core on this slate, we just know the players that will be getting by far the most ownership.
- People will be building around Mahomes/Hurts/Worthy/Kelce/Barkley with a sprinkle of AJ Brown for those that want to have some differentiation.
- Interestingly we see Noah Gray as one of the higher exposure captains?
This is from a new Portfolio Management app that I am building and shows the highest projected duplications for the slate:
Patrick Mahomes CPT is just hard to justify here, I think. At the very least you’ll want to avoid pairing him with Brown and Hurts in the flex as that is what we see leading to the heaviest duping.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This is not a good showdown slate but damn it we are going to play it anyway.
The reasons it’s not a good showdown slate are two-fold:
- You have a clear set of usable players and a large group of uncertain ones
- The Superbowl has more variance than any other game played in the year
Because of this it’s just going to be an absolute luckbox on what wins the slate AND there’s a significant possibility that the winner will be significantly duped. You have to be careful about your lineup construction in both the concern for dupes here.
As far as the model analysis goes, we are fading Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Now, I recognize that this is quite possibly his last game and the NFL writers are really good at their job. He’s going to have 8-125-2 and ride off into the sunset with his megastar girlfriend, destined to have a podcast and that awful mustache for the rest of his days.
However, the models hate him, so, ya know.
The other angle that I think is worth pursuing is aiming for AJ Brown over Jalen Hurts. The models don’t necessarily love AJB by any means, but there is enough upside in terms of relative value that I think you can take that path for the win equity. If you don’t fade Travis Kelce, I think I can understand that, but I would say that you should seriously consider fading Hurts.
The last thing to think through is: Which fucking random chiefs guy is going to catch a TD on some trick play that shouldn’t work but does? Will it be the TE3? Justin Watson? Andy Reid’s cousin? Who knows! But it’s a stone lock that some 2% owned Chiefs practice squad guy is going to catch a touchdown, and I think in MME it’s worth sprinkling those kinds of guys into your portfolio.
This showdown is all about the sweat and the glory. Models want us to avoid Kelce and put a bit focus on Saquon, so I would start with him in either slot and figure out the rest. I think it’s really interesting to go with AJB over Hurts in larger fields, and utilizing Hollywood Brown as a value feels like the best way to go. The one big combo I would avoid is Mahomes CPT with Hollywood in the Flex, as it leads to too many dupes and lower win equity.
All that said, play however you want! Build the lineup you hope comes true and have a good time. It’s the Superbowl baby, go out with a bang.
Overvalued:
- Travis Kelce
- Mahomes/Hollywood stack (Mahomes CPT)
- Defenses
Undervalued:
- Saquon Barkley
- The fucking third stringer for the Chiefs
- AJ Brown over Jalen Hurts builds
Good luck and bink a unique
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