Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
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Captain ownership distributions
There are a handful of negative edges in the Captain that are worth avoiding and every single one of them is as expensive as possible. Basically every “good” play is overowned in the captain, which goes to tell you a lot about how people will likely be building. Slates like this one with no shortage of value are going to have people overconfident in building stars and scrubs and we are seeing that today.
the main positive edge at Captain is Rachaad White, who has an exposure rate in winning lineups of 10.90% with an ownership projection of just 5.12%. His 5.78% positive edge is going to be consistent across any set of simulations you run here at Paydirt. After him, we have Chase McLaughlin and Cade Otton as viable cheaper captains.
FLEX ownership distributions
Flex edges are mostly opposite of Captain, with the high priced options being much higher edge than a lot of the cheaper options. However, we do have a couple expensive options that appear overvalued. Namely, Mike Evans and Drake London both have more projected ownership than exposure in winning frames. They both come in between 7-8% overvalued. This makes both of them overvalued at both Captain and Flex, which typically tells us to avoid them entirely.
The positive Edges here are Bijan Robinson (+16.23%), Chris Godwin (+10.70%), Rachaad White (+9.99) and Baker Mayfield (+9.72%) and represent a pretty nice Flex group based on Paydirt models. It’s also worth noting that while we usually see both defenses neutral to negative in edge, we do have Tampa Bay DST as a positive edge at Flex of 4.12% in this set of sims.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
I’m not expecting heavy dupes whatsoever tonight. The top own sum in the cash optimals is 318%, which is normal, but there’s a pretty considerable dropoff after the main Flex group falls apart and then we are under 300%. You’ll be able to build a lot of stuff that is relatively low in volatility while also keeping duplications low enough to be viable.
The main Flex group is Bijan/Drake/Godwin/Evans with Mayfield heavily used as well. That is the main combination of guys that you really need to stay away from. Fading either of Bijan or Evans is going to give you some easy dupe mitigation especially considering the median for Evans can be replicated with Rachaad White, who the models love.
Worth noting the lack of Sterling Shepard in the cash optimals. Other reputational industry sources are projecting him for around 15% owned, Paydirt thinks he is closer to 25-30%. Him and Ray-Ray McCloud will be the main values used tonight, though likely not together. So if you build something with Shepard that you think will be unique, consider that you may be low on his ownership if you aren’t using Paydirt as your source.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
From a first glance I thought this showdown was pretty bad but I actually think there are a lot of ways to play it well. You can start out with some pretty highly owned combos that have easy pivots. Another upside of those pivots is they are usually cheaper, meaning that you can eliminate a lot of dupes just be coming in $1-2k under the salary cap. This all adds up to a great small field slate with a lot of optionality for large field diversions.
I look at this slate through a couple 1v1s:
- Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Sterling Shepard: The two main values, I think they will be comparably owned and achieve the same concept in building. Ignoring what models think of the 1v1 from a projection and role perspective, I think it’s worth noting that most people will play one or the other and not both. If you do play both, you are in risk of duping pretty heavily, as there are only so many combos that fill out the cap while using both.
- Bijan Robinson vs. Kirk Cousins: This is a slate defining choice. If you choose the Bijan side, it is higher owned but has a better floor/median/ceiling combo. If you choose the Cousins side, you end up with higher relative value but you are playing for a much different game circumstance.
- Rachaad White vs. Mike Evans: I think this is a really important 1v1 as well, and it can be the difference between duping heavily and being able to pass the field easily. In any build where you end up with both Godinw and Mike Evans, simply dropping from Evans to Rachaad White instantly makes you unique.
Another important note: I think that the use of Shepard/Ray-Ray today is based on how you view the game totals. If the game is high scoring, you will need more of the expensive players, thus you’ll need both of the value pieces. If you think the game score is moderate, you should only use one of them and find more midrage. If you think it is a low scoring game, you should play neither of Ray-Ray or Shepard.
Some closing thoughts: I think the salary cap is a suggestion today, not a threshold. A lot of the builds I am liking are where I end up $1.5k below the salary ceiling based on pivots and 1v1 swaps. People are going to be over-exposed to a high scoring game with bad roster construction based on the available value.
My favorite lean is building a cash lineup with Godwin captain and Bijan/Baker in the flex and fading Mike Evans. I especially love Ray-Ray McCloud today.
Overvalued:
- Mike Evans
- Kyle Pitts (He’s bad)
- Passing game captains
Undervalued:
- Rachaad White
- Ray-Ray McCloud
- Bucs stacks
Good luck and bink a unique
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