NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Giants vs. Seahawks

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

The main pass catchers for both sides make for the best captains, while using both QBs is a really important aspect of FLEX selection
There are no clear-cut ways to manage dupes on this slate, so make sure you are being careful with your overall ownership sums and don’t get too comfortable
Creating lineups that follow a shootout gamescript are the most optimal here based on contest sims, but if you go with a SEA win script make sure you are avoiding Walker/G.Smith together

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

There is a clear captain being undervalued tonight when you consider sharper fields, and that is Tyler Lockett. His exposure in winning lineups in the contest sim is nearly 35%, a pretty stark number, compared to just a projected captain ownership of around 12.5%. He makes for a terrific option, and only one of three options that provide positive leverage. The worst option for captain tonight is Geno Smith. His projected ownership at the position is tied for highest on the slate with Daniel Jones, but his exposure in the contest winners is below 10%.

FLEX ownership distributions

As noted above, Geno Smith is the worst captain, but he is the best FLEX play in terms of ownership. His projected ownership is just around 58% here, but his exposure in the contest sims is 89.70%. Him and Daniel Jones are both considerably more valuable as FLEX options while the higher upside receiving options make more sense in the captain.

The worst FLEX options are Darren Waller and Tyler Lockett. The reason for this is mostly just because they make for better captains, but it’s worth noting regardless. They have projected FLEX ownerships of 31% and 37% while having respectively exposures of 15% and 23%.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

Daniel Jones and Geno Smith are viewed as free squares in the contest sims, which speaks more to a shootout than any other kind of script.
Both defenses are negative leverage, which, again, speaks more to a shootout.
Somebody I didn’t mention yet is Matt Breida, but no matter the size or strength of field you run, Breida is consistently a negative value play.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The pricing is, frankly, pretty bad on this slate. You can get both QBs and the main receiving options for both side without too heavy of a punt. Especially if you don’t use a QB in the captain it becomes very easy to fit all the main options. This is going to produce lots of duping and make it even more important in large fields to be cognizant of your ownership.

The most frequent player combo that you see will be Metcalf/D.Jones/G.Smith/Lockett/Waller.
There will likely be some kind of deviations from that in the line of using Breida instead of Waller or mix and matching Metcalf/Lockett, but you can expect that handful of players to be highly combined. The best way to manage dupes is going to be looking for lineups that have either a unique captain or only one of the two QBs. Outside of that, it becomes a numbers game where ownership needs to be something you manage on a micro basis.

Unfortunately, there’s not a clear-cut combo that we have to avoid tonight. That’s good for a showdown because it means we have a lot of ways to build but makes for kind of shitty written content. My life is hard, ya know?

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Contrary to yesterday, this showdown is pretty good and allows for a lot of natural build paths that don’t feel bad. That’s partially because of the pricing, for sure, but you also have a lot of usable pieces and comfortable fades. For instance, if you think that Darren Waller sucks, you can make a good pivot to Bellinger who is min price and also sucks but isn’t expensive. If you believe that Jaxson Smith-Njigba is better against man coverage for whatever reason, there’s plenty of upside in using him at captain (especially in softer fields). Lots of ways to fulfill your favorite biases.

A common theme of the contest sims here at paydirt has been to focus on the passing game and ignore the running game entirely. Making a choice between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet is way harder than just playing like a chad and stacking Geno/Metcalf/Lockett and bringing it back with Daniel Jones and his eyebrows. A 3-3 is the most optimal build path according to the sims in a lot of ways, with a 4-2 lean towards SEA being the other most common route.

The thing I will say: If you want to use Kenneth Walker, you would not be pairing him with Geno Smith. If you use Geno Smith, you can reasonably pair him with Charbonnet. They each have different roles and Charbonnet is the more valuable one in a shootout script.

My preference for tonight is going to be playing the best plays with one guy that sucks but doesn’t suck that bad and building for a shootout. 3-3 with a SEA captain or a 4-2 SEA lean.

Some players that look overvalued:

Matt Breida
QB captains
Both defenses

Some players that look undervalued:

Tyler Lockett (CPT)
Double-QB lineups
WR3s for both teams

Good luck and bink a unique

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