Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- CHI is allowing the most fantasy points per minute to opponents at a rate of 1.10 FPPM. WAS and DAL are right behind them at 1.09 and 1.08 respectively.
- The Knicks are allowing the fewest FPPM to opposing teams and are playing the Cavs who are also near the bottom of FPPM allowed. This is likely a better real life game than DFS game.
- There are a lot of bad defenses playing tonight which makes it a real “play whoever you want” type of slate.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- ATL/WAS is the top matchup on the slate and while ownership is high on several players it certainly isn’t prohibitive in early projections.
- IND/PHI and CHI/CHA are two other solid game environments with depressed ownership that make for good large field GPP targets.
- TOR/OKC and CLE/NYK should be solid games to watch as a fan, but limited exposure for DFS is a valid approach.
Trending Players
Value galore tonight. In addition to the multitude of value options there are several strong midrange options popping in the ceiling tables. A good way to approach this slate is to start by prioritizing the value plays with high FPPM rates and focusing on the teams with shorter rotations.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Jalen Johnson continues to stand out as an elite spend up option, but Embiid is also a strong option against whatever IND throws at him.
- ATL/WAS and IND/PHI game environments both are well represented in the exposures. NOP is also popping and outside of Bey ownership is modest.
- Your core tonight is likely Alondes value + Jalen Johnson to get exposure to ATL/WAS and then an IND and NOP piece.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
