Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- Utah and Washington are giving up the most fantasy points per minute at 1.09 each
- Toronto is giving up the least at .93
- The Pelicans give up the most 3-pointers per minute at .18 while keep up with UTA and WAS in terms of points allowed per minute
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- Best Game environment is BKN/UTA at 1.02 FPPM, though it’s not a big upgrade over the others
- Worst is TOR/LAL which is at .94 FPPM which is noteworthy
The most interesting part of this slate is that the teams matching up with UTA/WAS are both relatively lackluster matchups in their own right, which is bogging down the environments. BKN plays slate and sucks at scoring, BOS can score but is playing without Jaylen Brown. People will obviously gravitate towards BOS with the “value” created from no Brown, but BKN is in just as good of a spot. Either way, both BOS and BKN should be priorities.
TOR/LAL is probably just a game to cross off your list. There’s likely some individual values that are decent but nothing worth putting too much focus on.
Trending Players
- Relatively short list of 7+ values to look at today
- Danny Wolf, Trey Murphy, and Jordan Walsh catch my eye based on projection and ceiling values
- Note the lack of BOS players here
I want to show what the numbers look like for BOS specifically here to make an important point:
You can see that while the projections are strong on Pritchard and White that their adjusted ceilings are lacking. Now, granted, this is based on recent performances where Jaylen Brown played, so his influence is affecting their perceived upside. But I think it’s worth mentioning that Derrick White, for instance, might already be priced towards his ceiling. The models likely prefer to have Queta and Walsh, who have room to meet their adjusted ceilings, rather than pay the premium on someone like White.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
