NBA DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

NBA DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the NBA DFS Range of Outcomes and the NBA Contest Simulations.

Ceiling Data Breakdown

Cade Cunningham (PG, DET): With a salary of $10,500, Cunningham projects for a high ceiling of 70.99 fantasy points, with a 21% chance to be the top scorer, a 62% chance to finish top 5 and an 83% chance for a top 10 finish. He also has a strong 99% chance of exceeding his salary by four times (4x%) and 75% chance at five times (5x%). He has a 13.19% projected ownership percentage.
Karl-Anthony Towns (C, NYK): Priced at $9,400, Towns has a ceiling of 68.57, with a 20% chance of top finish, a 59% chance to finish top 5 and an 81% chance of a top 10 finish. He has strong chances of hitting value, including a 99% chance at 4x and 83% chance of 5x. His ownership is projected at 23.99%.
Joel Embiid (C, PHI): Embiid’s ceiling is 65.12 with a $10,000 salary. He has a 14% chance of being the top scorer, 49% chance to finish in the top 5 and 75% chance to finish in the top 10. He has a 100% chance to reach four times his value and 72% at five times his salary. His projected ownership is 13.26%.
Jalen Brunson (PG, NYK): Brunson has a salary of $8,400, with a ceiling of 64.08 and a very low chance to be the top scorer of just 8%. His odds of hitting value are very strong with 98% chance to get four times his value and 84% to get 5 times his value. He is projected for high ownership at 29.87%.
Tyrese Maxey (PG, PHI): Maxey’s projections are a 63.27 ceiling for a salary of $9800, a 7% chance of top finish, 35% chance of top 5 finish and 65% chance of top 10 finish. He has a 98% chance of hitting 4x value and 64% at 5x value. He has a 12.09% ownership projection.

GPP Data Breakdown

Jalen Duren (C, DET): At $6,600, Duren has a ceiling of 53.81. Despite a low 1% chance to be the top scorer, he has a 97% chance of reaching 4x value and a 85% chance at 5x value, and 34% to hit 6x value. His ownership is 16.1%.
Ausar Thompson (SF/PF, DET): With a low salary of $5,100, Thompson has a ceiling of 45.18 with a zero percent chance of a top finish but very high chance of hitting value with a 90% 4x and 86% 5x value. He also has a high 34% chance of 6x value. His projected ownership is 26.25%.
Immanuel Quickley (PG, TOR): Priced at $6,100, Quickley has a ceiling of 49.57 and is not expected to have a top finish but very high odds of 4x value at 93% and 80% for 5x. His projected ownership is very high at 43.38%.
Nikola Vucevic (C, CHI): Vucevic is priced at $7,800 and has a ceiling of 59.17. He has a 5% chance of a top finish, and is very likely to hit value with a 97% 4x value and an 81% 5x value. His projected ownership is 14.23%.
Josh Hart (SF/PF, NYK): Hart has a salary of $7,600, with a ceiling of 58.84. He has a low 2% chance to be the top scorer but strong odds to hit value with 97% odds of 4x and 79% at 5x. He has a 23.1% projected ownership.

High Owned Data Breakdown

Immanuel Quickley (PG, TOR): Quickley is projected to have the highest ownership at 43.38%, with a salary of $6,100 and a ceiling of 49.57. His odds of exceeding value are very high with 93% odds of 4x and 80% of 5x.
Tyus Jones (PG, PHO): Jones is projected for high ownership at 38.58% at a low $4,800 salary and a ceiling of 42.14. He has a 78% chance of hitting 4x and 77% at 5x.
Jalen Brunson (PG, NYK): With projected ownership of 29.87%, Brunson has a salary of $8,400 and a ceiling of 64.08. He is highly likely to hit value with a 98% chance at 4x and 84% at 5x.
Gradey Dick (SG, TOR): Dick has projected ownership of 27.83%, a salary of $4,300, and a ceiling of 39.32. He has a 66% chance to get 4x value and 76% to hit 5x value.
Ausar Thompson (SF/PF, DET): Thompson is expected to have 26.25% ownership with a $5,100 salary and a ceiling of 45.18. His likelihood of hitting value is high at 90% for 4x and 86% for 5x.