NBA DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

NBA DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the NBA DFS Range of Outcomes and the NBA Contest Simulations.

Ceiling Data Breakdown

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C, MIL vs ATL, $11000): Projected for 31.86 minutes, Antetokounmpo has a ceiling of 72.7 fantasy points. His GPP% is 23.77.
Anthony Edwards (SG, MIN vs PHI, $9300): Edwards is expected to play 34.14 minutes, with a ceiling of 67.82 fantasy points. His GPP% is 10.54.
Karl-Anthony Towns (C, NYK vs GSW, $9800): With a projection of 34.79 minutes and a ceiling of 67.82 fantasy points, Towns has a GPP% of 11.63.
Damian Lillard (PG, MIL vs ATL, $9000): Lillard is projected for 34.63 minutes and a ceiling of 63.15 fantasy points. His GPP% is 12.61.
Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG, CLE vs CHI, $8700): With 30.03 projected minutes and a ceiling of 61.38 fantasy points, Mitchell’s GPP% is 19.12

GPP Data Breakdown

Georges Niang (SF/PF, ATL vs MIL, $4200): Niang appears as a punt play. With a low salary, his value lies in potential minutes, freeing up salary. His GPP% is 25.41.
Lonzo Ball (PG/SG, CHI vs CLE, $4700): Ball could be considered a value play if he sees significant minutes. His GPP% is 25.72.
Andrew Nembhard (PG/SG, IND vs HOU, $4800): Nembhard represents a mid-tier value option with a reasonable floor and potential for upside. His GPP% is 38.26.
Caris LeVert (SG/SF, ATL vs MIL, $5200): LeVert is a boom-or-bust option. His GPP% is 18.3.
Julius Randle (PF/C, MIN vs PHI, $6500): Randle’s lower salary compared to the top tier makes him an interesting GPP play, especially if he can exceed his median projection. His GPP% is 46.25

High Owned Data Breakdown

Julius Randle (PF/C, MIN vs PHI, $6500): Projected for 30.61 minutes, Randle has a median projection of 34.21 fantasy points. His GPP% is 46.25, indicating a reasonable chance of exceeding value in tournaments. However, his chances of a top finish are slim.
Jarrett Allen (C, CLE vs CHI, $6200): Allen is projected for 27.21 minutes with a median of 36.2 fantasy points. He has a GPP% of 42.03, and his probabilities of top finishes are also low.
Andrew Nembhard (PG/SG, IND vs HOU, $4800): Nembhard is expected to play 29.75 minutes, with a median projection of 24.5 fantasy points. His GPP% is 38.26, suggesting some potential for exceeding value, although his ceiling is relatively limited.
Lonzo Ball (PG/SG, CHI vs CLE, $4700): With a projection of 26.93 minutes and a median of 25.64 fantasy points, Ball’s GPP% is 25.72. His chances of high-end production appear limited based on the provided data.
Georges Niang (SF/PF, ATL vs MIL, $4200): Niang is projected for 25.5 minutes and a median of 21.82 fantasy points. His GPP% is 25.41