NBA DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

NBA DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the NBA DFS Range of Outcomes and the NBA Contest Simulations.

Ceiling Data Breakdown

Nikola Jokic: A high-salary center ($12,500) with a high ceiling of 83.92 fantasy points. He has an 81% chance of a top-5 finish and a 100% chance of exceeding a 20% return on his salary. He projects for 33.18 minutes. His high median and ceiling make him an attractive option if you’re confident he’ll reach his potential. He has a 5.16% projected ownership.
Anthony Edwards: A guard/forward with a $9,500 salary. Edwards has a projected ceiling of 73.72 fantasy points and a 57% chance of a top-5 finish. He has an extremely high percentage of exceeding 20%, 4x, 5x, and 6x value on his salary. He is projected to play 37.15 minutes. With a 22.53% projected ownership, he is a somewhat risky play.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: A point guard with a salary of $10,800 and a ceiling of 71.66 fantasy points. He has a 55% chance of a top-10 finish, and like Edwards is nearly guaranteed to hit at least 20% return on his salary. His projected ownership is lower than Edwards at 12.57%. He projects to play 32.74 minutes.
Cade Cunningham: A point guard with a salary of $10,400 and a projected ceiling of 70.23 fantasy points. He has a 52% chance of a top-10 finish. He is nearly guaranteed to at least exceed a 20% return on his salary, similar to Edwards and Gilgeous-Alexander. He projects to play 34.44 minutes. His ownership is projected to be fairly low, at 4.31%.
Karl-Anthony Towns: A center with a $9,400 salary and a ceiling of 69.62 fantasy points. He has a 45% chance of a top-5 finish and a 99% chance of exceeding 20% of his salary value. He is projected to play 36.57 minutes. His projected ownership is very low at 7.59%.

GPP Data Breakdown

Bol Bol: With a salary of just $4,300, Bol Bol has a projected ceiling of 48.75 fantasy points. He has a very low probability of a top finish, however, he does have extremely high odds of exceeding his value by 4,5, and 6x. At 29.4 projected minutes, this could be a high risk, high reward tournament play with a projected 55.46% ownership.
Nick Smith: Another low-salary player at $4,500, Smith has a projected ceiling of 46.77 fantasy points. He has a very low probability of a top finish, however, he does have very high odds of exceeding his value by 4 and 5x his salary. At 34.09 projected minutes, this is a high upside tournament play. He has a projected 6.01% ownership.
Pascal Siakam: With a salary of $7,700, Siakam has a ceiling of 59.63. He has a relatively low probability of a top finish at only 18%, however he has a very high probability of exceeding 4,5, and 6x of his salary. At 31.97 projected minutes he is projected to be 16.95% owned.
Jalen Duren: With a salary of $6,600, Duren has a ceiling of 53.82 fantasy points. He has a very low probability of a top finish, however, he does have fairly high odds of exceeding his value by 4, 5 and 6x. He is projected to play 26.34 minutes, and has an 11.14% projected ownership.
Isaiah Stewart: The lowest salary of this group at $3,400, Stewart has a ceiling of 38.24 fantasy points. He has a 0% chance of a top finish, but he has very high odds of exceeding his value at 4, 5, and 6x. He is projected for 20.11 minutes and just 1.45% ownership.

High Owned Data Breakdown

Bol Bol: (Again) With a salary of $4,300, Bol Bol has a projected ceiling of 48.75 fantasy points. He has a very low probability of a top finish, but has very high odds of exceeding his value by 4, 5 and 6x. He is projected to play 29.4 minutes. The data projects that he will be 55.46% owned.
Thomas Bryant: A center with a $5,000 salary and a ceiling of 46.87 fantasy points. While he has zero chance of a top finish, he has very high odds of exceeding his value by 4, 5 and 6x. He is projected to play 26.12 minutes. He has a projected ownership of 25.26%.
Anthony Edwards: (Again) A guard/forward with a $9,500 salary. Edwards has a projected ceiling of 73.72 fantasy points and a 57% chance of a top-5 finish. He is nearly guaranteed to exceed a 20% return on his salary and has extremely high odds of exceeding it by 4, 5, and 6x. At 37.15 projected minutes, he projects to be 22.53% owned.
Pascal Siakam: (Again) With a salary of $7,700, Siakam has a ceiling of 59.63. He has a relatively low probability of a top finish, but a high probability of exceeding his value at 4,5 and 6x. He projects for 31.97 minutes and 16.95% ownership.
Donovan Clingan: A center with a $4,600 salary and a ceiling of 44.47 fantasy points. While he has zero chance of a top finish, he has very high odds of exceeding his value by 4, 5 and 6x. He projects for 25.79 minutes, and is projected to be 16.95% owned.