Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- deGrom leads the slate in True AVG tonight but you are eating a lot of ownership. His True AVG and median projection are both strong but understand you’ll have to get different at SP2 or with your stack.
- The next group of pitchers to consider include Paydirt favorite Liberatore, Lambert, [Goovin] Williams, and Jax. Aside from any leverage plays, this group plus deGrom should constitute your pitcher pool.
- Yamamoto, Kirby, and Freeland are the worst True AVG pitchers on the slate. ARI, TBR, and STL are all fully in play as stacks tonight.
Macro Team Stats
- DET is the top stack in the scoring percentages in both 8+ and Top Score%. They have been absolutely on fire. Best of all, they are not projected to be highly owned either.
- Interestingly, COL is the 2nd best team in the scoring percentages despite Liberatore’s strong True AVG. This could be a situation where the models think damage comes versus the bullpen. CHC, TBR, and STL are the additional teams worth considering for full stacks.
- SEA, SFG, and HOU are the bottom 3 tonight in the scoring percentages. As always, a case can be made for large field/MME but they can be avoided in small field and limited entry contests.
Trending Teams
DET once again has the top trending % by a wide margin. Not only that, but they also get the best trending matchup on the slate as well. Fire them up as you please. COL, CHW, ARI, and TBR are also all trending well. ARI and CHW have the best trending matchup, while ARI and TBR have matchups versus weak True AVG pitchers. The DBacks look like a strong option tonight. TEX, SEA, and LAD are the bottom three trending teams on the slate.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Williams/Liberatore is the clear priority pairing at SP. If only choosing one the models are adamant that Gavin Williams is the starting point.
- Fading chalk deGrom is completely reasonable tonight. In small field you should still consider him to lower your lineup volatility, but in large field don’t feel compelled to eat the chalk.
- The Twins and Guardians stand out as top stacking options due to their cheap prices.
- DET, TBR, ARI, and STL stacks are noticeably absent from the high exposures in the PM, however, this makes sense considering the high price tag on the best hitters on those teams. An alternative approach is to utilize them as mini-stacks or one-off options paired with value stack such as MIN or CLE.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
