Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- deGrom leads the slate in True AVG tonight by a pretty wide margin. That said, his ownership is also the highest on the slate by an even wider margin. While he has the top median projection we have seen him get blown up a few times this season so there is absolutely merit to the fade in large-field GPPs.
- After deGrom, the next highest True AVG pitchers are Taj Bradley, Gage Jump, and Kyle Harrison. Lambert, Urena, and Jobe round out the rest of the reasonable options you can consider for all formats.
- Pfaadt, Elmer Rodrigues, and Kay are the bottom 3 True AVG arms on the slate. You can consider stacking against them in MME and large-field GPPs even if the opposing stack ROO isn’t the best.
Macro Team Stats
- BAL and MIL are the top stacks tonight for 8+ and Top Scoring%. BAL is projected to be very highly owned which makes MIL a great pivot.
- NYY, CHW, and CHC are the next teams to consider for full stacks. However, in the cases of CHW and CHC the models expect a lot of the damage to come versus the bullpen not the starter.
- The Angels, Twins, and Astros are the bottom 3 teams in the scoring percentages. As noted above, Angels and Astros can still be considered in MME sets and large-field GPPs but are probably better as a mini-stack even in that context. In small field and limited entries they can be avoided altogether.
Trending Teams
The Yankees are the top trending team on the slate and get a solid trending matchup as well. The Cubs, Orioles, Whitesox, and Brewers are the other noteworthy teams in the trending tables. BAL projects well and is trending well but will be chalk. Just be mindful of your overall ownership if playing them. The Brewers continue to look like a strong pivot, while the Cubs and Whitesox are solid large-field options at low ownership. The A’s, Tigers, and Angels are the 3 worst trending teams tonight.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The models don’t have a super strong stand at pitcher tonight. All of Nola, deGrom, Elmer, Lambert, and Taj are viable and showing up in at least 20% of optimals.
- Most of the pitching combinations fit comfortably so the only real reason to punt with Elmer is if you want to load up on Coors.
- Speaking of Coors, the Rockies side looks incredibly undervalued tonight and is the priority stack in the PM.
- Chalk pitching plus the under-owned side of Coors. The models are pretty straightforward tonight.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
