Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Christian Scott lead the slate in True AVG tonight followed by Skubal and Hughes. While Hughes is likely some small sample shenanigans, Skubal and Scott are real deal Holyfield. Skubal is the top pitcher play on the slate even at his ownership, and Scott makes a strong contrarian SP2.
- The next group of pitchers to consider include Mize, Rogers, Lopez, Gray, Peralta, and Henderson. The first half of this list are slightly stronger True AVG plays than the latter half, but all are in consideration. Take note that the chalk SP2s Detmers and Gore do not have particularly strong True AVG.
- Elder, Taillon, and Dobbins are the bottom 3 True AVG pitchers on the slate. The Mets, RedSox, and Phillies can all be considered for stacking options.
Macro Team Stats
- BOS and NYM are the top 2 teams in the scoring percentages at #1 and #2 in 8+ and tied for first in Top Score%. Additionally, neither team is garnering much ownership.
- COL, TBR, ARI, and BAL are the next group of teams to consider for full stacks. TBR is going to be the chalk, but exposure to them makes sense especially in smaller fields. The same can be said for BAL as some of their value bats will likely be popular. COL and ARI are strong contrarian options for large field GPPs given their low ownership.
- ATH, TOR, and KCR are the bottom of the barrel stacks tonight. Aside from playing Royals as the ultimate leverage play in ultra-large field contests, these stacks can be avoided in all formats.
Trending Teams
BOS is the top trending team in the models tonight and gets a solid trending matchup as well. The next best trending teams worth noting are the Rockies, Mets, and DBacks. There is a near perfect alignment between the top trending teams, the top teams in scoring percentages, and matchup versus the weakest True AVG pitchers. The Angels, Jays, and Rangers are the worst trending teams in the models.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Skubal looks like good chalk worth eating considering his median/ceiling relative to the rest of the pitching options tonight.
- The models like getting different at SP2 an fading Detmers/Gore in favor of Christian Scott. This also gives you a little more flexibility in spending on bats.
- The Mets are the very clear priority stack tonight, much to Jeremy King’s dismay (a Paydirt love story).
- Scott is going to be low-owned as an SP2 and the Mets will be low-owned as a stack. In smaller fields or higher stakes contests you can lower your volatility by playing TBR as a mini-stack, or by playing the chalkier pitcher combos with Mets and a lower-owned mini as well.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
