Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Detmers leads the slate tonight in True AVG followed by Kyle Harrison and [gulp] Michael Lorenzen.
- Logan x2 both have name value and might be considered “safer”, high-floor options. After them it’s a big pack of mid.
- Vasquez, Griffin, and Pallante are the bottom 3 True AVG pitchers tonight. Griffin has certainly shown some flashes but regression is headed his way. MIA, BAL, and LAD stacks are all in play.
Macro Team Stats
- Regardless of Lorenzen’s True AVG, neither he nor the COL bullpen is all that good. Hence, MIN is the top stack in the scoring percentages and top score%. Right there with them is WAS.
- The A’s also show up in the next best tier despite a matchup with the top True AVG pitcher on the slate, however, the models expect the vast majority of the damage to come versus the atrocious LAA bullpen. STL is the other option in this tier if you don’t want to bank on late-inning explosions.
- BAL is worth a shot in large field GPPs just due to Griffin’s True AVG and looming regression. However, CHC and CLE can be avoided if playing limited entries (MME exposure always viable).
Trending Teams
LAA and MIL are the top trending teams while SFG has the best combination of 8+ for with opposing 8+ allowed. The top 8+ allowed matchup is in the COL/MIN game – a gamestack is worth consideration here. Of the bottom trending teams in CHC, CLE, and SDP it is worth noting that CLE has the best trending matchup of that group if you can’t help but dabble.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The exposures at SP suggest either paying up for both spots, or punting SP2. The models don’t love a balanced mid-range SP combo tonight.
- Gilbert + one of Yoshi or Harrison would be the spend up option. Perkins is the punt SP2 with Yoshi or Harrison. A lower-owned option if eating chalk bats or just spending up on hitters would be a Gilbert/Perkins combo.
- MIN is the clear priority stack tonight. Buxton and Clemens are projected for double digit ownership, but the rest of the lineup is in single digits. MIA stands out as a solid mini-stack.
- Because the models are prioritizing expensive pitchers, the expensive stacks aren’t going to have much exposure in the PM. However, this doesn’t mean you can’t play a team like the Dodgers if you can make it work.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
