Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Chris Sale leads the slate in True AVG and you don’t need me to tell you he’s a good play tonight.
- Jack Perkins has pretty strong True AVG, but unfortunately is pitching in one of the worst parks in the world for pitchers. The same goes for Sproat on the otherside. Likewise, Lorenzen in in Coors. That leaves Detmers, Martin, Gore, and Luzardo as the remaining pitchers with solid True AVG on the slate.
- Max should retire and True AVG agrees. He is the absolute worst on the slate. Lugo and Imanaga round out the bottom 3. PHI, TEX, and COL bats should definitely be in consideration.
Macro Team Stats
- MIL and PHI are the top teams in the scoring percentages tonight. MIL is playing in a joke of a ballpark and PHI gets a washed up Max Scherzer.
- The Angels and Rangers are the next tier down and make great secondary stacks, or full stacks if eating the chalk pitching.
- TOR, ATL, COL, and NYM can likely be avoided in SE/3-max contests. However, COL is certainly in play for MME considering its Coors and Shota’s poor True AVG.
Trending Teams
MIL is the top trending team with the top trending matchup. This plus the scoring percentages and ballpark made it hard to get away from them tonight. LAA also is trending well and has a strong trending matchup. The Cubs are in Coors and will be chalk but are trending horribly and that continued last night in Coors as well. Be cautious with how much exposure you have of them. Trending numbers agree with the scoring percentages that TOR, ATL, and NYM can be avoided if playing limited entries.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The pitching combo on DK is some mix of Sale, Detmers, and Luzardo
- Phillies dominate the exposures for hitters making them a clear priority stack tonight.
- MIL is priced to the moon so they don’t show up as a full stack in the exposures, however, playing them as one-offs or a secondary stack is still viable.
- The Royals are a team that is popping in the PM exposures, but not necessarily the other models. They are good, but not great plays that come at cheap price allowing you to fit in pricier high-upside options.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
