Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Davis Martin is not for the feint of heart but True AVG loves him tonight. Cam Schittler, Vasquez, and Soriano would be the safer options. Lastly, Gilbert also has strong True AVG but the matchup versus ATL isn’t ideal.
- Trevor McDonald is min-priced and has a strong median projection, however, he also has the worst True AVG on the slate. He’s probably fine to play at the stone minimum, but I would temper expectations.
- Okert also has an absolutely awful True AVG and faces the Dodgers. Expect Dodgers bats to be popular. Wacha, Patrick, and Ritchie are additional pitchers worth attacking.
Macro Team Stats
- The Yankees sit atop the scoring percentages tonight a day removed from winning people all the money. The look great again.
- As noted above, the Dodgers stand out in the scoring percentages due to the talent and matchup. Additionally, MIL, STL, and BAL (sicko play) all look good for GPPs.
- SEA, SFG, and HOU all look like teams you can largely ignore tonight outside of MME runs.
Trending Teams
ATL has the highest trending 8+ on the slate which is why opposing Gilbert is likely an avoid despite strong metrics. However, because they are facing a solid pitcher they are better served as mini-stacks or one-offs. The Yankees and Cubs both have great trending stats and great trending matchups. Watch the weather with the Cubs game but these two teams should be priorities. Notably, LAD has both poor trending stats and trending matchup despite their rank in the scoring percentages. Similar to ATL, but for different reasons, they might also be best as a mini-stack or one-offs.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- At his price and projection McDonald is getting jammed into nearly every lineup.
- Schittler looks like the priority at pitcher and either pairing him with McDonald to jam high-end bats, or pairing him with Soriano and going more balanced.
- MIL and STL stand out as stacks. Dodgers do show up as well, but looking at the exposures simply one-off’ing Ohtani seems to be the way to go.
- The Yankees don’t have a single batter that shows up in at least 20% of lineups, but that also likely means they will be low-owned relative to their upside.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
