Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Ignore Rojas as he’s just an opener. The top True AVG pitchers may not be who you expect with Lugo, Ginn, and Corbin rounding out the top 3.
- Of the projected chalk pitchers Weathers looks the best. Woo, however, has the 2nd worst True AVG on the slate and is currently projecting for around 40% ownership.
- This looks like a great slate to get contrarian at SP. If you do eat chalk, Weathers, Yoshi, and Gore are the best options and Woo looks like a strong fade candidate.
Macro Team Stats
- The Dodgers are the top team in the scoring percentages but ARI and TEX are right there with them. That said there are some cheaper pitchers worth considering which helps you afford the pricier Dodgers.
- Not only are the Whitesox an incredible leverage play, they also are a top 5 team in the scoring percentages. MIN, COL, and CHC are the next tier.
- Notably, teams playing against pitches the models are high on rate out terribly in the scoring percentages. If playing limited entries you can largely ignore MIL, KCR, LAA, and TOR.
Trending Teams
The Cubs, Whitesox, Dodgers, and DBacks are the top trending teams tonight which is fairly aligned with the scoring percentages. Of that group, the Whitesox have the best trending matchup. On the other side of that game, Seattle also is trending decently well and get a plus matchup with the Whitesox.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Yoshi/Weathers is the main SP pairing, but J.T. Ginn is a viable salary-relief option at SP2.
- MIN and SFG are the primary teams to full stack tonight.
- Duran is reasonably priced and has dual eligibility at two scarce positions. He makes a solid one-off but in general this looks like a prime “fade Coors” slate.
- Sadly no CHW show up in the top exposures but neither does Woo, strongly consider them in MME sets.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
