Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Dylan Cease leads the slate in weighted True AVG tonight (lower is better) by a pretty wide margin. He projects as the chalk but likely worth the ownership.
- Jose Quintana is the stone worst pitcher on the slate and faces the Dodgers in Coors.
- For reference the league average for True AVG is typically between .250 – 260. Bradish, Detmers, and Hancock are some additional pitchers that are appealing tonight.
Macro Team Stats
- Atlanta stands out as the top stack tonight and our a strong contrarian option. Early ownership projections have them less than half as owned as the Dodgers who will be heavy chalk as they travel to Coors.
- The Reds and Mariners are two additional low-owned teams with upside you can consider for GPPs.
- While it may be tempting to play lower-owned Rockies on the other side of the Coors matchup, they rate as the 3rd worst stack in the scoring percentages. The Angels are the bottom option tonight with a matchup against Dylan Cease.
Trending Teams
The Cubs and Angels sit atop the trending tables when sorted by matchup 8+ trending. This may seem contradictory to them being the two worst teams in the scoring percentages, but there’s a reason. This is looking at the teams trending performance in combination with the trending performance of their opponent. It is not looking at the specific slate matchup. That being said there are two teams who standout both in the trending tables and in the scoring percentages – the Atlanta Braves, and the Seattle Mariners.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Cease, Detmers, and Nola should be the priorities in your pitcher pool. It’s worth noting that it is generally ok to eat chalk pitching (that projects well) as it’s consistently +EV in both large and small field GPPs.
- ATL is the clear top stack tonight as mentioned previously.
- J.P. Crawford is the top value play tonight whether as a one-off or as part of a SEA stack. Chalk Dodgers aren’t an avoid, but it’s probably best to use them as a mini-stack to off-set the ownership.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
