MLB DFS Slate Analysis – Pitcher Breakdown
This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the MLB DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.
MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown
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Yusei Kikuchi (LAA vs TBR): Kikuchi presents the highest Ceiling projection at 44.84 and also the highest Top_finish rate at 25% among the listed pitchers. This indicates a significant upside and the highest probability of being the top fantasy scorer in simulated games. With a salary of $7900, his 2x% (rate at which he scores more than two times his salary divided by 1000) is 69%, suggesting strong value potential, coupled with a projected ownership (Own%) of 25.8%.
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Max Fried (NYY vs TEX): Fried, with the highest salary at $10200, shows a Ceiling of 40.26 and a Top_finish rate of 13%. His 2x% is 32%, meaning he scores more than two times his salary divided by 1000 in 32% of simulations, and his projected ownership is 28.5%.
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Sean Manaea (NYM vs CLE): Manaea’s profile includes a Ceiling projection of 40.52, which is slightly higher than Max Fried, and a Top_finish rate of 10%. He has a 37% chance to score more than two times his salary (2x%) at a salary of $9500, with a projected ownership of 23.3%.
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Sonny Gray (STL vs LAD): Gray has a Ceiling of 39.40 and a Top_finish rate of 10%. His 2x% is 41% for his $9300 salary. Notably, his projected ownership is 7.1%, which is considerably lower than other high-ceiling options, potentially making him an attractive leverage play in large field tournaments where lower ownership can be advantageous.
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Patrick Corbin (TEX vs NYY): Corbin’s statistics include a Ceiling of 39.33 and a Top_finish rate of 9%. At a lower salary of $7600, he demonstrates a strong 2x% of 61%, indicating a high likelihood of providing good value, with a projected ownership of 9.3%
MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown
- Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs STL): Glasnow exhibits the highest projected ownership (Own%) at 42.7% within this subset of pitchers. Despite his popularity, his Top_finish rate is 5% and his 2x% is 21%. His Ceiling is 39.78 with a salary of 9800. This combination of high ownership and relatively moderate top-finish and value rates might suggest he could be over-owned relative to his upside in tournament formats.
- Max Fried (NYY vs TEX): Fried’s projected ownership stands at 28.5%. He demonstrates a solid Ceiling of 40.26 and a Top_finish rate of 13%. His 2x% is 32%. He carries the highest salary in this group at $10200.
- Yusei Kikuchi (LAA vs TBR): With a projected ownership of 25.8%, Kikuchi presents a compelling case due to his robust underlying metrics. He boasts the highest Ceiling of 44.84 and an impressive Top_finish rate of 25%. Furthermore, his 2x% is 69%, indicating a high probability of delivering substantial value relative to his $7900 salary. His strong upside and value potential at a moderate ownership level make him a notable option.
- Mike Soroka (CHC vs CIN): Soroka’s projected ownership is 25.6%. His metrics show a Ceiling of 31.89 and a more modest Top_finish rate of 1%. However, he offers a solid 2x% of 45% at a lower salary of $7000, suggesting he could be a viable value play, particularly in cash games where consistency rather than slate-breaking upside is often prioritized.
- Sean Manaea (NYM vs CLE): Manaea has a projected ownership of 23.3%. His profile includes a Ceiling of 40.52 and a Top_finish rate of 10%. His 2x% is 37%, and his salary is $9500
MLB Pitcher Value Data Breakdown
- JP Sears (SDP vs ARI): Sears stands out with the highest 2x% at 79% among these pitchers, signifying a very high likelihood of providing strong value relative to his salary. With a salary of $6000, his Ceiling is 38.02 and his Top_finish rate is 8%. His projected ownership is remarkably low at 2.2%, making him a prime candidate for a low-owned, high-value play in tournaments (GPPs).
- Yusei Kikuchi (LAA vs TBR): Kikuchi continues to appear prominently across sources, here showcasing a strong 2x% of 69%. He also holds the highest Ceiling at 44.84 and the highest Top_finish rate at 25% among this group, pointing to significant upside. His salary is $7900, and his projected ownership is 25.8%.
- Brandon Pfaadt (ARI vs SDP): Pfaadt offers a robust value proposition with a 2x% of 67% at a salary of $6600. His Ceiling is 36.55 and his Top_finish rate is 4%. Similar to Sears, his projected ownership is very low at 2.4%, indicating he could be an excellent leverage play for tournament lineups.
- Patrick Corbin (TEX vs NYY): Corbin provides a solid 2x% of 61% with a salary of $7600. His Ceiling is 39.33 and his Top_finish rate is 9%. His projected ownership is 9.3%, suggesting he could offer a good balance of value and relatively low ownership.
- Tanner Gordon (COL vs TOR): At a very low salary of $4800, Gordon has a 2x% of 47%. While his Ceiling is 22.97 and he has a Top_finish rate of 0% (meaning he has not been the top fantasy scorer in any simulations), his ability to score more than two times his low salary in nearly half of simulations makes him a potential “punt” play to save salary for other positions, especially in cash games. His projected ownership is 2.2%